Makes perfect sense. It would get steamrolled trying to complete against CES w/o an Apple Keynote. The MW organizers would be smart to transform the show into a WWDC for everyone else type of event. And center it around the Mac since Apple is content to focus on the iPhone since it's got more growth potential at the moment.
I'm not intending to argue against your main points here - but I thought it was worth pointing out that CES is having its own struggles drawing attention.
I'm sure its organizers are very happy to hear that Apple's no longer involved with MWSF; but much the trade press (that I've read, anyway) seems to think CES is going to be in trouble soon.
I really think even the biggest trade shows are finding it hard to stay relevant anymore. Maybe some of the giant, narrow-target shows will continue to do well (e.g. Photokina).