Marc Gurman: M2 Pro/Max/Ultra/Extreme coming, M3 in Q1/Q2 2023

[senttoschool]

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/news...h-series-8-m2-macs-for-2022-and-2023-l4vd5unx

The new M2 chip, part of the MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro announced at WWDC and optimized with macOS Ventura, is also the core of several other products in the pipeline. Those are likely to come in much quicker succession than the M1-based Macs did. Here are the M2 Macs I’m told to expect beyond the first two:

• an M2 Mac mini.
• an M2 Pro Mac mini.
• M2 Pro and M2 Max 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros.
• the M2 Ultra and M2 Extreme Mac Pro.

Looks like the 2x Ultra Mac Pro chip will debut with M2, not M3.

But more interesting to me is how these changes set the stage for Apple’s next slate of devices. From what I’ve been told, the company is about to embark on one of the most ambitious periods of new products in its history—with the deluge coming between the fall of 2022 and first half of 2023.

The new products will include four iPhone 14 models, three Apple Watch variations, several Macs with M2 and M3 chips, the company’s first mixed-reality headset, low-end and high-end iPads, updated AirPods Pro earbuds, a fresh HomePod and an upgraded Apple TV.

Apple is also already at work on the M2’s successor, the M3, and the company is planning to use that chip as early as next year with updates to the 13-inch MacBook Air code-named J513, a 15-inch MacBook Air known as J515, a new iMac code-named J433 and possibly a 12-inch laptop that’s still in early development.

M3 coming in Q1/Q2 2023. 15" Macbook Air and 12" Macbook in the works.

The most important thing I'm getting out of this report is that Apple is planning to update the M series annually, including the Pro, Max, and Ultra chips.

M1 to M2 yielded +10% ST, +18% MT, +35% GPU, +40% Neural Engine. If Apple can get close to these improvements annually, it's pretty insane.

Strategically, it seems to make sense to update the M chips annually. The iPhone pays for new core designs. M chips benefit since most of the cost (design) was already paid for. Just replace old cores with new cores in the base, Pro, Max, Ultra, and Extreme templates.

While the M1 to M2 did take 18 months, reports did come out that Apple really wanted to announce the M2 in the Spring 2022 event but couldn't due to the delays to the new MBA design. The fact that the M2 uses A15 hints that Apple wants to do an annual update.

 

[jav6454]

15" MacBook more likely; highly doubt it'll be an Air. As per M2 Extreme, something tells me it'll be two M2 Ultras fused.

 

[chabig]

I will do one better than Gurman and speculate that Apple will produce the M4 sometimes after the M3.

 

[JPack]

M2 = June 2022
M3 = Late 2023

If so, that would another 18 month cycle.

 

[thenewperson]

Nice. Hoping the M3 is a March/April thing but it’ll probably be June.

 

[thenewperson]

15" MacBook more likely; highly doubt it'll be an Air. As per M2 Extreme, something tells me it'll be two M2 Ultras fused.

Why not an Air? It makes a lot of sense for it to be an Air.

 

[senttoschool]

M2 = June 2022
M3 = Late 2023

If so, that would another 18 month cycle.

Nah. Don't think it'd make sense. Unless M3 will use A17.

 

[senttoschool]

M2 = June 2022
M3 = Late 2023

If so, that would another 18 month cycle.

But more interesting to me is how these changes set the stage for Apple’s next slate of devices. From what I’ve been told, the company is about to embark on one of the most ambitious periods of new products in its history—with the deluge coming between the fall of 2022 and first half of 2023.

The new products will include four iPhone 14 models, three Apple Watch variations, several Macs with M2 and M3 chips, the company’s first mixed-reality headset, low-end and high-end iPads, updated AirPods Pro earbuds, a fresh HomePod and an upgraded Apple TV.

FYI, Gurman thinks M3 will be Q1/Q2 2023.

 

[Bel Marduk]

The new Air looks great but if they have a 12 inch in the works, I'm going to hold out for that!

 

[Spaceboi Scaphandre]

M2 Extreme...Apple please do not use that name

 

[uczcret]

M2 Extreme...Apple please do not use that name

Agreed. It's almost as cringeworthy as iPhone 13 Pro Max.

 

[Spaceboi Scaphandre]

Agreed. It's almost as cringeworthy as iPhone 13 Pro Max.

"Alright team we just ordered a massive batch of M2 Extreme Mac Pros! How cool is that?...why are you all laughing?"

 

[MayaUser]

The new Air looks great but if they have a 12 inch in the works, I'm going to hold out for that!

no 12" it seems, so dont wait for something that could never came up

 

[w5jck]

I will do one better than Gurman and speculate that Apple will produce the M4 sometimes after the M3.

ROFLMAO!!!! Yep, Gurman is just a guesser who occasionally gets a kernel of truth correct. I wish the love affair between the Mac fanatics and him would hurry up and end...they buy into everything he says hook line and sinker even when he is wrong most of the time.

 

[izzy0242mr]

15" MacBook more likely; highly doubt it'll be an Air. As per M2 Extreme, something tells me it'll be two M2 Ultras fused.

"MacBook" sounds like the lowest end version, and historically it's at least been one of the smallest. I just don't see a "MacBook" being a 15" device.

Imo they should ditch the Air branding across the board and just have "normal" and "pro" options. Even with the iPad, "Air" really tells you nothing about the difference between that and the normal iPad. They are almost the exact same weight and dimensions. Air has a better screen and newer chip.

My prediction:
MacBook: 12" - same price or slightly higher price than entry level MBA
MacBook Air: 13", 15" - 15" will be priced higher than the base 13" MBP (weird pricing, but bigger screens are always pricier so I don't see a way around this)
MacBook Pro: 13"/14"/16" - pricing as is, but the 14/16" models will get first access to M2 Pro/Max chips
Studio: M2 Pro/Max/Ultra
Mac Pro: M2 Max (base), Ultra, or Extreme chips - reserving the Extreme chipset for the Pro makes the most sense imo

 

[theluggage]

Strategically, it seems to make sense to update the M chips annually. The iPhone pays for new core designs. M chips benefit since most of the cost (design) was already paid for. Just replace old cores with new cores in the base, Pro, Max, Ultra, and Extreme templates.

Except, so far, we haven't seen even the base M2 rolled out to the Mac Mini (~18 months old) or the 24" iMac (over 12 months old). So it's no good having a new Mx chip every year if they can't get it into new Macs on that timescale. For one thing it would produce an automatic Osbourne Effect.

Now, maybe the Mini is waiting on a re-design (although the fact that the Studio has copied the old Mini design language casts doubt on that) but you'd think that the iMac would have been a drop-in replacement.

The Macs have never had a regular 12-month update cycle - typically more like anything between 18 months and 4 years - and while some of that is down to Intel-related issues, there's been no sign of a bright new Apple Silicon dawn in that respect. Of course, everything is a bit disrupted at the moment...

 

[izzy0242mr]

Except, so far, we haven't seen even the base M2 rolled out to the Mac Mini (~18 months old) or the 24" iMac (over 12 months old). So it's no good having a new Mx chip every year if they can't get it into new Macs on that timescale. For one thing it would produce an automatic Osbourne Effect.

Now, maybe the Mini is waiting on a re-design (although the fact that the Studio has copied the old Mini design language casts doubt on that) but you'd think that the iMac would have been a drop-in replacement.

The Macs have never had a regular 12-month update cycle - typically more like anything between 18 months and 4 years - and while some of that is down to Intel-related issues, there's been no sign of a bright new Apple Silicon dawn in that respect. Of course, everything is a bit disrupted at the moment...

I wish they'd stick to an 18 month+ cycle for Macs. We do NOT need updated computers every year, especially not with as good as the chips are already. Having that much of an upgrade cycle is both more work for Apple and promotes excessive consumerism and contributes more to e-waste as people keep their computers for less time and although some get sold on the used market (good), many will get tossed, and with the way the chip market and environment are heading, we don't need to hasten that process any more.

 

[NT1440]

15" MacBook more likely; highly doubt it'll be an Air. As per M2 Extreme, something tells me it'll be two M2 Ultras fused.

That’s exactly what it will be. I remember the head of the chip division at the intro of the M1 series discussing how their focus is a architecture that scales across the board.

With the introduction of the Ultra we saw that they’re fusing them together.

Those two pieces of info pretty much guarantees the extreme will be two ultras fused together.

I don’t think there was ever a plan for an M1 extreme, but when we finally get die shots of the M2 Ultra it’ll be pretty clear.

 

[NT1440]

I wish they'd stick to an 18 month+ cycle for Macs. We do NOT need updated computers every year, especially not with as good as the chips are already. Having that much of an upgrade cycle is both more work for Apple and promotes excessive consumerism and contributes more to e-waste as people keep their computers for less time and although some get sold on the used market (good), many will get tossed, and with the way the chip market and environment are heading, we don't need to hasten that process any more.

Only tech nerds are upgrading yearly, and an extreme minority of them.

Forum members need to remember, the very fact that you’re here means you are NOT your typical user, so try not to project your enthusiasm onto the other 99% if consumer habits. We’re a rounding error.

 

[izzy0242mr]

Only tech nerds are upgrading yearly, and an extreme minority of them.

Forum members need to remember, the very fact that you’re here means you are NOT your typical user, so try not to project your enthusiasm onto the other 99% if consumer habits. We’re a rounding error.

All true and good. But I still think the upgrade cycle contributes to materialism. I bet people wouldn't upgrade iPhones so often if Apple didn't release new ones every single year. And iphones are a better example than Macs of this problem

 

[NT1440]

All true and good. But I still think the upgrade cycle contributes to materialism. I bet people wouldn't upgrade iPhones so often if Apple didn't release new ones every single year. And iphones are a better example than Macs of this problem

Agreed, but we would then have to get into a discussion about how our economic system *requires* an insane level of consumerism or the whole house of cards falls apart….which isn’t allowed in this site anymore.

 

[izzy0242mr]

Agreed, but we would then have to get into a discussion about how our economic system *requires* an insane level of consumerism or the whole house of cards falls apart….which isn’t allowed in this site anymore.

Heh, yeah...oh right. Forgot about that.

 

[theluggage]

All true and good. But I still think the upgrade cycle contributes to materialism. I bet people wouldn't upgrade iPhones so often if Apple didn't release new ones every single year. And iphones are a better example than Macs of this problem

The real problem is the whole concept of an N-month upgrade cycle of any type. Just update when there's a technical improvement worth updating to. In the case of the iPhone (which, as you say, is the worst culprit) they're really scraping the bottom of the barrel to come out with something "new" each year. So you get things like the Notch (instead of waiting for through-display cameras/sensors to be ready so they can have the true edge-to-edge iPhone that they really want) or the camera bump (just don't make the phone thinner than the focal length of the camera lens).

Trouble is, though, if you want a world with less materialism you'll probably have to put up with less powerful, more expensive electronic products. The M1, in particular, owes its existence to the iPhone becoming increasingly over-powered over the years until the A12 had more processing and graphics power than the typical Intel laptop. The price of mass-produced goods, particularly electronics, is hugely dependent on economies of scale. Still, that doesn't mean the world wouldn't be a nicer place...

 

[jav6454]

That’s exactly what it will be. I remember the head of the chip division at the intro of the M1 series discussing how their focus is a architecture that scales across the board.

With the introduction of the Ultra we saw that they’re fusing them together.

Those two pieces of info pretty much guarantees the extreme will be two ultras fused together.

I don’t think there was ever a plan for an M1 extreme, but when we finally get die shots of the M2 Ultra it’ll be pretty clear.

I agree. The entire M1 Pro+ lineup was meant as scalable and the M1 Max/Ultra demonstrates this. As per the "Extreme", I am unsure, but given the push for a Mac Pro, perhaps we might.

 

[jav6454]

"MacBook" sounds like the lowest end version, and historically it's at least been one of the smallest. I just don't see a "MacBook" being a 15" device.

Imo they should ditch the Air branding across the board and just have "normal" and "pro" options. Even with the iPad, "Air" really tells you nothing about the difference between that and the normal iPad. They are almost the exact same weight and dimensions. Air has a better screen and newer chip.

My prediction:
MacBook: 12" - same price or slightly higher price than entry level MBA
MacBook Air: 13", 15" - 15" will be priced higher than the base 13" MBP (weird pricing, but bigger screens are always pricier so I don't see a way around this)
MacBook Pro: 13"/14"/16" - pricing as is, but the 14/16" models will get first access to M2 Pro/Max chips
Studio: M2 Pro/Max/Ultra
Mac Pro: M2 Max (base), Ultra, or Extreme chips - reserving the Extreme chipset for the Pro makes the most sense imo

MacBook was the base device from which the Pro and Air came about. Nothing about it said "basic". Even if it did, a 15" model would make sense. The Air will not go beyond 13".