You Europeans are missing the point - no pin and no signature is even more convenient than chip and pin. No credit card terminals brought to the table at restaurants, no transitioning or forcing small businesses to buy new terminals, no PIN skimmers, no confused or irritated customers.
Not taking cards away at restaurants closes one loophole that allows card not present fraud by making it impossible for someone to copy the front and back and sell/use the details later. Chip and signature/nothing basically makes it harder to fight CNP fraud later, IMO (does anyone really think they're going to mandate 2FA for online transactions like other countries do?)
Also, smaller businesses have to buy new terminals for EMV anyway. Unless they brought something like Square that has no PIN pad, they likely can support PIN with just a software upgrade and additional training.
Speaking of training, a large enough marketing campaign and a transition period would prevent a lot of the problems you think will happen. Of course, the parties involved have shown little to no interest in that, so this may be a moot point.
Not to mention chip and pin completely shifts liability of fraud from the merchant and issuer to you, the consumer. It is already extremely easy to dispute fraud in the US, and there is zero liability for those charges. If someone manages to get your card and pin in most of Europe you are screwed.
US law guarantees that it will never shift to the consumer even if we got PIN en masse. As mentioned above, my PIN-preferring credit cards (UNFCU and Diners Club) have no language in the T&C that would move liability to me.
This is all overblown anyway since card-present fraud is such a tiny fraction of fraud to begin with. Having a massive country-wide infrastructure change to chip and pin in 2018, after EMV has all but eliminated cloned cards, would be incredibly stupid. What really needs to be tackled is card-not-present fraud.
Counterfeit card fraud was something like half of all card fraud in the US pre-EMV. If it was really as small as claimed, we wouldn't have bothered.
Also, something like 40% of merchants still don't support it. Still lots of opportunity to use cloned cards, unfortunately.
Chip and pin is not the gold standard you all seem to think it is - I am very satisfied with this change and, in the US, moving to chip and pin at this point would be a step backwards.
As I also mentioned before, I think not going with PIN significantly delayed NFC adoption (or quite possibly killed it entirely). For instance, I've seen so many places that continue to hide terminals from customers as a direct result of this that I really don't think the "true" merchant adoption figures for Apple Pay are anywhere near as high as Apple claims. Not to mention that combined with Quick Chip, there's almost no convenience advantage to using NFC anymore.
I don't think it will because it's all proprietary and retailers are still thinking about what motivates them to use this technology instead of what will motivate their customers to use this technology. From what I've seen, the general public is just as averse to it as they are to NFC. They either perceive it as "insecure" in the same way that they perceive NFC as insecure, or they just don't want to be bothered to set up a special account with every retailer to be able to mobile pay. And most don't find it any more convenient than dipping a card, aside from the few who gripe about the EMV transaction time.
I think the security fears could be worked through. In the extreme case, for instance, whatever QR service ends up becoming most popular may simply be a prepaid balance like what Starbucks does (sans auto-reload), meaning that any losses are limited to what's in there. In any case, it would need to be something supported by multiple retailers, and not something limited to one retailer.
As for transaction time, today's young people are tomorrow's consumers, and I've seen multiple posts from people in that category who now prefer to use cash for purchases due to EMV. If it wasn't an issue, Visa wouldn't have come out with Quick Chip to try to "fix" it. (Which I'm not sure helps as much as people think, but people seem to like it at e.g. Costco.)
I think it's just going to take longer in the US due to how much legacy POS hardware is still out there. The move to EMV helped expedite some of that, but I still see a lot of retailers here willing to assume the liability shift in favor of upgrading anything. As more old hardware fails or falls completely out of support, more new hardware is going to be NFC-ready and the certification backlog will (hopefully soon) be cleared. I think once those events have a chance to catch up to retailers' operations, NFC will "come with" EMV support, so to speak, and it will be a no-brainer to accept NFC by default.
Retailers still need to go through a separate certification (and possibly software development effort) for NFC, so that backlog might be there for a while to come. That's assuming they're actually doing it, though, which I'm not sure about considering the low demand from customers.
That's the advantage of just using the bank's software on terminals: the bank already did all of that, so there's no work involved for the retailer.
Outside of a few behemoths like Walmart, who are using their size to bully the industry and customers into using a proprietary system that helps them avoid transaction fees and enables them to build a detailed profile on you and your shopping habits, there simply won't be a huge incentive for anyone else to dump resources into developing more proprietary QR systems and marketing the non-existent advantages to customers when the hardware already out on the checkout lane does NFC with little effort.
Walmart's app is supposedly popular, not to mention Starbucks'. It probably helped that every one of their locations supported their respective apps from the start and that there are benefits/rewards for using it.
BTW, just because the hardware's there doesn't mean it's easy to enable.
QR is an awful system and I highly doubt it's going to win over anything. Credit card issuers in the US are obsessed with providing the simplest checkout procedure humanly possible because they are convinced (whether true or not) it affects how often people use credit cards over alternatives - they are absolutely not going to support QR.
Visa wouldn't have started supporting a QR standard if there wasn't anything to potentially gain from it. They likely saw what happened with China and Alipay/WeChat and didn't want that to repeat itself in the US.
Fun fact: Chase Pay basically uses that standard.