I really like the Apple refurbs, bought a 13" MBA for a family member last year. But there may be one slight difference between the refurb and new. Some credit cards will automatically double your warranty period when used to purchase a Mac. However they may exclude refurbs from these extended warranties. Probably not a big deal for most people, but worth checking the fine print in your credit card terms if you are concerned.
I run hot and cold regarding AppleCare. I got it for my iPhone 6s Plus last year but have not purchased it for a Mac in a long time. I have been using Apple computers going back the the Apple ][ in 1978 and Macs since the "Fat Mac' 512 in 1985. I have only had one issue that AppleCare would have covered in all those years - and I did actually have coverage on that machine, a PowerBook G4 back in 2004. There was an issue with it failing to recognize all the RAM I had installed and Apple swapped the motherboard twice. The issue came back each time, and I finally gave up on trying to resolve it since I was replacing it with a new computer anyway. It turned out to be a design flaw of some kind and there was even talk of a class action suit over it.
I could have bought a couple new Macs with the money I've saved by not purchasing AppleCare over the past 10 years. It's a gamble, like any insurance policy. But the odds are on Apple's side or they would not be offering it.
Well, there have been many debates on Applecare over the years on these threads.
Personally, I'm a fan, ever since a colleague in an ancient university where I taught had a windows computer completely die at 13 months and was left with nothing, neither warranty, legal support, nor a working computer.
In my case, the Applecare has paid for itself; my MBP had a HDD replaced, and I seem to recall a battery failure - both in the third year, so Applecare was useful.
My first MBA (13" 2010, the so-called 'Revolution C'), required a MagSafe replacement and a keyboard replacement, again, both handled swiftly under Applecare.
My second MBA - bought in the summer of 2013 - had issues with individual keys - the 'a' key in particular - kept coming off. Apple replaced the entire keyboard.
For me, Applecare regulates my purchases - the cycle of Applecare determines how long I hold not a computer for, not technological breakthroughs; I am not an 'early-adopter' - I prefer to see apple iron out all issues and teething problems before investing in a new computer.
Therefore, I will usually replace a computer before Applecare expires, as I like the peace of mind that having it gives me.