I really like the Apple refurbs, bought a 13" MBA for a family member last year. But there may be one slight difference between the refurb and new. Some credit cards will automatically double your warranty period when used to purchase a Mac. However they may exclude refurbs from these extended warranties. Probably not a big deal for most people, but worth checking the fine print in your credit card terms if you are concerned.
I run hot and cold regarding AppleCare. I got it for my iPhone 6s Plus last year but have not purchased it for a Mac in a long time. I have been using Apple computers going back the the Apple ][ in 1978 and Macs since the "Fat Mac' 512 in 1985. I have only had one issue that AppleCare would have covered in all those years - and I did actually have coverage on that machine, a PowerBook G4 back in 2004. There was an issue with it failing to recognize all the RAM I had installed and Apple swapped the motherboard twice. The issue came back each time, and I finally gave up on trying to resolve it since I was replacing it with a new computer anyway. It turned out to be a design flaw of some kind and there was even talk of a class action suit over it.
I could have bought a couple new Macs with the money I've saved by not purchasing AppleCare over the past 10 years. It's a gamble, like any insurance policy. But the odds are on Apple's side or they would not be offering it. 😉
Well, there have been many debates on Applecare over the years on these threads.
Personally, I'm a fan, ever since a colleague in an ancient university where I taught had a windows computer completely die at 13 months and was left with nothing, neither warranty, legal support, nor a working computer.
In my case, the Applecare has paid for itself; my MBP had a HDD replaced, and I seem to recall a battery failure - both in the third year, so Applecare was useful.
My first MBA (13" 2010, the so-called 'Revolution C'), required a MagSafe replacement and a keyboard replacement, again, both handled swiftly under Applecare.
My second MBA - bought in the summer of 2013 - had issues with individual keys - the 'a' key in particular - kept coming off. Apple replaced the entire keyboard.
For me, Applecare regulates my purchases - the cycle of Applecare determines how long I hold not a computer for, not technological breakthroughs; I am not an 'early-adopter' - I prefer to see apple iron out all issues and teething problems before investing in a new computer.
Therefore, I will usually replace a computer before Applecare expires, as I like the peace of mind that having it gives me.