Microsoft Argo: iPod Killer?

[netdog]

Apple leveraged iPods to sell iTMS, and iPods to sell Macs, but Microsoft can use MediaPlayer/Vista/Urge to push its WMA players. Controlling 90%+ of the world's desktops with XP and soon with Vista, they have an opportunity to push the iPod and iTMS right off the map. It already seems well on its way to happening with movie downloads.

I am not saying that MS will do any of the above, but they are sure well positioned to do so. If Vista manages to successfully push people to register their credit cards at Urge, and WMA playback capability becomes a must-have feature, Apple will have a lot of trouble on their hands.

Say a prayer that Jobs manages to not only deliver must-have sexy devices, but that he makes iTunes a whole lot more impressive for Mac and especially for Windows so that people won't even want to use Media Player. If people adopt the new Media Player 11, and quietly infect the world with WMA/WVA media, watch out. In truth, the player doesn't have to be that good. It just has to play the media that people actually have. Hence their rumoured willingness to swap protected AACs for WMAs. That along with OS dominance is where the danger to iPod/ITMS exists.

 

[gh0sted]

I think if Apple gets the 6G iPod to the market before Argo, MS is dead in the water. People aren't going to buy an Argo after shelling out $300-400 for an iPod. Also once everyone sees their friends with the new iPod they wont want anything else. We all know Apple has done wonders making their player an icon.

I think DRM will kill the Argo as well.

 

[Cinch]

wireless, used to think it was cool idea

wireless (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Wi-Max whatever)? I used to think that this was a cool thing to have in an iPod. an iPod with internet radio capability sounds like a really cool idea. I'm lukewarm about now.

We already have wired music share libraries on our computers (college campus). I just don't have the motivation to explore other's music library. I turn my sharing off, quite frankly I'm embarrass to let the world know what I'm listening to most of the time .

The next step? An iPod phone. It should do two simple simple simple simple things (1) act like a basic phone you contacts, missed calls, dial calls etc and (2) behaves like a 4GB Nano. yeah I know, Motorolo Rokr didn't meet the challenge.

Cinch

 

[povman]

Heh... Knowing XBox, the device will probably be twice as big as the 1st gen ipods and require a separate (not bundled) control unit to access all functionality.

 

[wedge antilies]

Wait ... I know

why do people buy the video ipod with its tiny screen when there are other, better, video players out there already?

I have one of these and its fantastic.

IMHO, both Apple and Microsoft will have to go some way to beat the COWON A2.

I know,
A) people use the iPod video for Music first, thats why its "iPod video" not the "Video iPod". The video feature is only a bonus.

B) you can use the iTMS with the iPod video

C) Its $120 more than the iPod

D) Who the hell is COWON?!? - It's sounds like one of those "Simpsons brands" like Sorny.

When the REAL Video iPod comes out, this will be a collectable* item like a Beta VCR.



*By "Collectable" I mean - un-resell-able.

-Red 2.

 

[boncellis]

...D) Who the hell is COWON?!? - It's sounds like one of those "Simpsons brands" like Sorny.

Lol. Good times...

This doesn't spell doom for anyone or anything. Companies that are afraid of competition usually never stood much of a chance in the first place--Mr. Jobs has thrived under these conditions over the past 5+ years, I would expect nothing less now.

 

[wedge antilies]

Hmmm....."Pretty Well"

The XBox seems to be doing pretty well.

The following is from Gamespot. com
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6148512.html?page=3

"But as a result of increased production and marketing costs of the Xbox 360, on which Microsoft currently loses an estimated $126 per unit, its Home and Entertainment division found itself in an unenviable position. Despite the fact the division's quarterly revenue went from $571 million in 2005 to $1.056 billion in 2006, all its new income evaporated. Its quarterly operating loss went from $175 million in 2005 to $388 million in 2006."


However with the Games console Microsoft can make money from Game sales and liscensing. Since Apple has already admitted that the iTMS has razor thin profits, they won't be able to duplicate that revenue stream in this area.

The following is from Gamesarefun.com
http://www.gamesarefun.com/gamesdb/editorial.php?editorialid=4

"Since the Xbox launched, the Home and Entertainment Division has seen financial losses approaching $1 billion per year. The losses are $880 million and $990 million per fiscal year, respectively. Add in the $273 million lost in Microsoft's fiscal Q1 (calendar Q3), and $241 million lost in fiscal Q2 (calendar Q4) and we get $2.384 billion lost since the launch of the Xbox".


The argument some people are making is that if Microsoft is willing to put up with losses like this, they can do the same in the "iPod-like" market. However, the markets are truly different in a few ways - a) there is no razor/razorblade economic model b) there are VERY FEW barriers to entry c) The upgrade cycle is MUCH faster.

I think this a threat, but I think Apple may have this covered.


-Red 2.

 

[boncellis]

...I think DRM will kill the Argo as well.

Bingo.

It always comes down to content and DRM. When you think about it, the PSP could (perhaps should) have been the coolest thing since sliced bread with all its features and even movies and Sony's music service tailor-made for it. So what happened? Sony's atrocious proprietary scheme has made it a shell of what it could have been. I have a feeling MS hasn't learned any lessons since the "Works for Sure" campaign became something of a running joke.

Wasn't the Origami supposed to be an iPod killer?

 

[irmongoose]

WE HAVE COMPETITION!! Thank you, at last... :sniff:

This is war.




irmongoose

 

[yac_moda]

Today magnesium Nanos means tomorrow ...


... transparent aluminum iPods !!!


And I predict wireless disposable earphones


So no one will EVER find anything interesting in MS products

 

[mymacluvsme]

This would represent an more "end-to-end" business model described by Walk Mossberg that has brought Apple a lot of success with their Music Store/iTunes/iPod integration.

Who's "Walk Mossberg"?

 

[Hunabku]

In regard to not undeestimating MS

If this ipod killer was coming out of MS central (software dev, etc) i wouldn't be concerned. However the team that is working on it (xbox) actually are decently creative.

Also apparently ms has taken a hands off strategy to let the division develop its own creative culture/workflow. Let us remember what really drives the great products from apple - its the creative synergy of many in a culture of passionate people who truly enjoy making things together - a highly collaborative and insanely cool environment.

Because the creative capacity of MS sucks they need to make up with it in cash and market strategy. At least they had the sense to give xbox team freedom from the predominantly borgish world of MS - multiple stupids. - sorry couldn't resist.

 

[spaz]

I'm not sure if it's just a bunch of "computer guys" around here, but in the gaming world Xbox 360 has a fair amount of cultural cachet. It's not my cup of tea, but it's pretty dang popular with youth culture. Microsoft already has a highly successful, profitable, and critically lauded online service in Xbox Live, with millions of subscribers.

I think it's a bit of wishful thinking to claim MS will "screw this up", since the infrastructure is already there, and it's already functioning in a lot of young people's homes.

Look, I'm the biggest Apple fan I know, but Microsoft has proven over and over that they can move into an arena with another market leader and chip away. They lost hundreds of millions on the Xbox, and went right ahead and made a successor. They don't care if they lose some money, because eventually, they will make money.

I would love to see iPod continue its success, but, aside from a current lead in marketshare, Microsoft has a lot going for it this time around.

 

[ddrueckhammer]

Bingo.

When you think about it, the PSP could (perhaps should) have been the coolest thing since sliced bread with all its features and even movies and Sony's music service tailor-made for it. So what happened? Sony's atrocious proprietary scheme has made it a shell of what it could have been. I have a feeling MS hasn't learned any lessons since the "Works for Sure" campaign became something of a running joke.

Nintendo could have done the same thing with the DS Lite. There are addons for web, music, and video for this device and the battery life would still be on par with iPods...They, probably wisely, decided to keep the price of their device down and provide these features as accessories. Not everyone needs their portable device to do everything but the iPod, PSP, and DS Lite all have the potential for being brilliant convergence devices. Microsoft's talents in this area are still untested. The cellular companies would like their phones to be ultimate convergence devices but the are too greedy (at least in America) for their own good and most of the devices come off as buggy and overpriced...It is interesting, however, that Microsoft is willing to put their Xbox brand (which is pretty well accepted) in the untested market...

 

[yac_moda]

I'm not sure if it's just a bunch of "computer guys" around here, but in the gaming world Xbox 360 has a fair amount of cultural cachet. It's not my cup of tea, but it's pretty dang popular with youth culture. Microsoft already has a highly successful, profitable, and critically lauded online service in Xbox Live, with millions of subscribers.

I think it's a bit of wishful thinking to claim MS will "screw this up", since the infrastructure is already there, and it's already functioning in a lot of young people's homes.

Look, I'm the biggest Apple fan I know, but Microsoft has proven over and over that they can move into an arena with another market leader and chip away. They lost hundreds of millions on the Xbox, and went right ahead and made a successor. They don't care if they lose some money, because eventually, they will make money.

I would love to see iPod continue its success, but, aside from a current lead in marketshare, Microsoft has a lot going for it this time around.

YOUTH CULTURE


Where has it gone, withered on the vine ??? the USA's YC used to rule the world ?? Now PC is the only thing the comes close to ruling the world ?

 

[JRM PowerPod]

If Microsoft try to undercut the iPod in price. Steve will get revenge. He will start bundling all new macs with his pirated version of Windows XP Pro and Office Pro. hehe cop that Bill

 

[Darrin Bell]

MSFT will rename it.

I dunno, the XBox seems to be doing pretty well...

...Microsoft is very smart to leverage its successful XBox brand rather than its floundering (in terms of reputation, not profits) Windows brand.

I just hope Apple already has the name "xPod" trademarked.

 

[wmmk]

Who's "Walk Mossberg"?

Walt Mossberg, of the WSJ.
People make typos. Live with it

 

[Jetson]

I read some of the reader comments at the end of that article. This "Argo" is just vaporware, yet people are saying they'd rush out and buy it.

Other commenters got upset because someone pointed out how the "Argo" is an iPod ripoff. It IS a ripoff - you'd have to be as blind as a mole to not realize that Microsoft wouldn't have a clue of how to build this thing without copying the iPod. That's what Microsoft does - copy.

Another thing Microsoft does well is to market a product as a loss leader - for years if necessary. Remember how they started giving away their IE browser and just buried poor Netscape. Microsoft has money to burn.

Microsoft doesn't mind putting a piece of crap on the market. They know that the lemmings will buy anything with the MS logo on it. Then they will take years to iron out the bugs and end up with a fairly serviceable product. Not a great product, but one that works well enough for a world that follows the crowd.

And why is Microsoft supposedly launching their "iPod killer"? Because they just can't stand the thought of Apple dominating the market that Apple built. Ballmer says they are going after this market because it's there. He says they want 90% of the market or nothing.

 

[povman]

I just hope Apple already has the name "xPod" trademarked.

I hope microsoft has the name 'iBox' trademarked.. wouldn't want apple to ever make an iBox...

 

[gh0sted]

I doubt MS can afford to pull another XBox on the Argo. At least in the game console business you can hope to make back your losses on game sales and accessories. In the digital music business you know you are going to make squat on music sales. The best I see them doing is selling their player at cost. As for them trading users iTunes collections for their .wma collections... I wouldn't even want to go through the trouble of downloading all my songs over.

Also... if you had pirated music, would you trust microsoft scanning your library? I doubt many would

 

[bloodycape]

Forget MS I think Apple needs to worry about Sandisk and their 8gig flash player.

SanDisk has announced a drop in price for many of their digital audio players, including the e260 and e250, which are now $ 200 and $ 150 direct, respectively (with a limited free case offer). The cheaper c100's and m200's have also decreased in price, though most of SanDisk's models are quite a bit cheaper if you buy them from various webshops.

Also, hiding on SanDisk's site is a picture of the once-rumored e280 (8 GB), now visible under the e250/60 flash demo. Well, it says 8 GB on the back at least, I doubt it's a typo.

It seems SanDisk is gunning to push this out ahead of the next iPod Nano iteration, which many expect to get a bump in capacity as well. I'd really like to see an 8 GB player, but even more so I'd like SanDisk to work out the few little bugs in the e200's first and foremost (eliminate the headphone out noise, improve on-board playlisting, perhaps space out the playback buttons).


Using a firmware sandisk users haven't seen yet so that says something.

 

[bloodycape]

the key to apple succeeding this battle is to win the rights with the movie industry.

if bill gates gets there 1st, apple's in trouble.

the immediate danger is that the movie execs now know that there will be 2 players, thus, I would imagine, lessening apple's power in negotiations. bad for us potentially given jobs' desire to create a level pricing field for dloaded movies.

i would love to be a fly on the wall inside apple these days. i have a funny feeling that the 'ipod video' dev team is working overtime fixing issues and getting it ready for market.

go apple go.

I will agree with you there but however, if apple want to succeed in that area they need to offer more than 2hours(at best) of video playback. Look at Creative users are getting close to 5-6 hours out video playback while still have close to 20hours of audio. And I am getting close to 9 hours out of my Cowon PMP with a 4in screen and clost to 18 out of audio. Additionally apple needs to support to add more video support like divx which is popular enough to have some dvd players to support it and even have players just desinged to play that formart. Just my 2cents

 

[The Bazilfunk]

I still don't get the value of wireless in a music player--not in actual practice (battery life and added bulk, vs. the need to plug in to charge, which naturally takes longer than synching anyway).

But whatever it is, I think its chances will depend a lot on whether it can be as slim and light as an iPod, and the same elegant ease-of-use as iTunes and iPod.

Wireless music players is the future but also a problem again for the music industry. Taken the popularity of the iPod you would be able to have acces to over a 1000 music librarys in a small city. You would be able get a new network next to the internet dedicated to wireless music and videos. This all if Apple doesn't lock those things out but surely hacks would be created to make this possible.

Filesharing will move from the internet to the street. I see a lot of things possible with wireless music players. For good and bad but it will definately change the way we listen to music again.

 

[MegaSignal]

I still don't get the value of wireless in a music player--not in actual practice (battery life and added bulk, vs. the need to plug in to charge, which naturally takes longer than synching anyway).

Precisely.

If Apple dumped FireWire IEEE1394 for the sake of slimness, it is highly doubtful that they'd re-clutter and fatten it up with Bluetooth (which, after trying for many years (with other devices) I have now considered to be worthless crap). Really - unless one can charge with built-in solar panels (as Citizen does with their watches), wireless is a non-issue.

The current iPod has panache. It is "sessy". Neither word describes MS at all...and it is because of this that the Argo will have a tough time of it.

As others have said earlier in this issue, the good that will come out of all of this is that Apple will provide us with a better iPod.