Won't the same forces eliminate Apple as well?
Maybe. However, the constant is "Change (Adapt) or Die".
For any corporation, the real underlying question is the degree to which the factor of adapting to maintain relevancy have been baked into their DNA.
Apple has almost been killed, and yet has shown a strong resilience and willingness to try new markets and while some didn't make it (Newton), in the 'Second Jobs Era' it seems that they've really focused in on the question of how to better discern what does/doesn't make it...hence, iPod, iPhone.
And maybe even
TV. To summarize, their near-term survival skills are effectively guaranteed.
IMO, the replacement-of-Steve (whenever that comes...its not important when it is) probably won't be as much of a risk/concern as will be the replacement-of-the-replacement-of-Steve, since by that point there will probably no longer be any direct Corporate Memory of the struggle of the 1990s, etc...only that which has been successfully passed along.
Microsoft, on the other hand, very quickly became the big bully on the block and their biggest missteps has been illegal use of monopoly power. Many of their products haven't been particularly compelling, for the simple reason that they didn't have competition and would sell whatever it was no matter what.
This "easy money" paradigm changed under Vista .. and the Zune .. and as a result, Microsoft has become quite terrified of their longer term prospects.
And that's ultimately what this marketing campaign against Apple is about:
the simple reality is that MS doesn't really know how to compete in a fair & open playing field...and they're never really faced adversity and a fight for their own survival. As such, just what relevant skills do they have baked into their DNA? Kinda sounds like diddly squat.
I'm sure that there's some at MS who realize this and are scared and trying to respond. The problem isn't for their trying: the real question is if they have the right skill sets with which to figure out what needs to be changed in order to restore relevancy and thus, survival. As an analogy, with the SUV craze in the 1990s, many people were lead to believe that GM was healthy. The reality was that they had a very profitable niche market and a lot of junk in their corporate portfolio, and when the niche dried up, they fell. Hard.
When you look at these commercials, they're really making MS's situation worse, not better: the fundamental story that's being told (inadvertently!) is that OS is taken for granted ... invisible ... and the only strong appeal of a Windows PC is that it is cheap.
Since that's nothing less than a race to the bottom, does it really sound like a successful strategy for maintaining relevance? Particularly when in an industry segment that provides significant rewards for innovation?
The bottom line for Apple is that all that they need to do in 2009 is to get into the Public's mindshare that: "Windows 7 = Vista SP2", and MS could have one heck of a problem on their hands. MS knows this, which is why the "V Word" is absent.
-hh