Microsoft is on shaky ground when you start looking long term. Up to this point, Microsoft products have been mostly half ass and a me-too approach. Look at their Antivirus solution. It's in last place for detection and security which begs to question of why have an offering at all? Why waste resources on half ass implementations? Microsoft needs to trim down to a small product and service offering then dedicate resources into making them top notch.
When you look at the current generation, everyone is now growing up on Apple and Google products and services. These folks will be the next CIOs and CTOs which means there is a good chance they won't choose Microsoft at all for their tech needs.
I disagree. I think that their long term outlook is excellent. You picked a few consumer products and made a judgement based on those. If they shut down all of their consumer products it would be a fraction of their real business which is business and enterprise and that business just keeps getting better. Azure is certainly a success as is O365, hosted exchange, Server tools, etc. There are some great MS products out there that keep getting better.