Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

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Noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has issued a new research note today, cutting his shipment estimates for the iPhone XR due to several factors. He believes that some of the decline will be offset by higher demand for iPhone XS and older "legacy" models, but he is still reducing his overall iPhone shipment forecasts by 15-20 percent for the first quarter of 2019.

We have reduced our iPhone XR shipment estimation from 100mn units to 70mn during the new product lifecycle (4Q18-3Q19) for the following reasons: 1) Negative impacts on consumer confidence from the trade war, especially in the Chinese market, 2) expectations from more users for more affordable XR or the dual-camera and narrower bezel design to be provided at the current price level, and 3) competition from Huawei's Mate 20 series. We have reduced our XR shipment estimations for 4Q18, 1Q19, and 2Q19 by 30-35%, 25-30%, and 25-30% to 30-35, 20-25, and 10-15mn units, respectively.
Kuo believes that iPhone shipments for the current quarter will be in the same 75-80 million range he previously predicted, while he has lowered his first-quarter estimate to 47-52 million from a previous range of 55-60 million.

Kuo's prediction is somewhat curious given that he raised his early iPhone XR estimate a little less than a month ago and cited stronger demand than seen for the iPhone 8 last year with the potential for more stable demand over time.

Apple's stock price is down over 4 percent today, outpacing broader market declines and falling to its lowest point since the end of July.

Article Link: Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million
 

miniyou64

macrumors 6502a
Jul 8, 2008
613
2,162
The only reason Im going with this phone is because the LCD screen doesn’t blast your eyeballs out with PWM like the OLED screens. Total fail on Apple’s part to pit a screen on XS and Max that gives people headaches. Unbelievable
 

jeffg1

macrumors newbie
Mar 27, 2009
23
91
Why is it whenever apple is expected to sell less items, either Tim Cook or other analysts blame either a trade war, or some other reason, but never say that the consumer is slowly waking up to see that apple's old tech isn't enough to sell as much as it used to?
 

Marzel

macrumors regular
Sep 12, 2018
246
539
Life of "analysts" appears to be very difficult. First they "predict" sales using huge ranges and then they keep updating those figures every two weeks. Kuo went from a 55-60m Q1 prediction to 47-52m (and from 100m LTD to 70m) lol.
 

ijbond

macrumors member
Jan 17, 2006
47
100
No wonder! The XS is too big, too heavy und much too expensive. The XR is much too big, much too heavy und too expensive. The XS is much, much too damageable, when falling down.

I am waiting and waiting for a desirable XR-Min, which is as solid as the SE was. My SE fell down several times without any damage. Best iPhone ever. And no, I don't like cases.
 
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Breaking Good

macrumors 65816
Sep 28, 2012
1,290
1,004
Why is it whenever apple is expected to sell less items, either Tim Cook or other analysts blame either a trade war, or some other reason, but never say that the consumer is slowly waking up to see that apple's old tech isn't enough to sell as much as it used to?
I think that is what Kuo is stating in items 2 and 3 above, just not in the same words you used.

Item 2 is stating that some consumers don't see the value proposition of the iPhone XR and item 3 is stating that some consumers see a better value is a competitor's device.
 

smallcoffee

macrumors 68000
Oct 15, 2014
1,619
2,180
North America
Uh-oh. Almost looks like the XR is going to be a repeat of the iPhone 5c. I thought people loved phablets?
I think people do, which is why they bought the XS Max - iirc sales numbers were ok/good for that. The issue with this model is that it's just "the cheap version". Apple's lineup should be a $1000 iPhone XS with 128gb of storage, an iPhone SE2 with 64gb of storage, and an iPhone XS Max for $1200 with 256gb of storage (roughly speaking for all). There are a lot of people who want the XS series, a lot of people who want an SE-type phone, but there doesn't seem to be a real need for the XR.

Sometimes I don't think Apple understands their market. Make high-quality, repairable, expensive but not overpriced stuff that makes my life better/easier and you've got me for life. Cancelling the Time Capsule/AirPort Express, not updating the Mac lineup, and jacking up the price of the iPhones isn't a long-term winning strategy.
 

rorydaredking

macrumors newbie
Aug 3, 2014
4
5
Life of "analysts" appears to be very difficult. First they "predict" sales using huge ranges and then they keep updating those figures every two weeks. Kuo went from a 55-60m Q1 prediction to 47-52m (and from 100m LTD to 70m) lol.
Not just an analyst, but a noted analyst. Noted for never providing any analysis or scoops of note I would suggest but MR seem to like his 'insight'
 

max.ine

macrumors 6502
Aug 16, 2016
258
408
My hands are big, but I still have no idea how anyone could think the XR is too big. Ever since I got my iPhone 6 Plus, I’ve never been able to go back to anything smaller.

My launch 7 Plus is starting to show signs of wear and tear and I’d consider replacing it with the 8 Plus over the XR any day, and that’s not even accounting for price. And as much as I want an XS Max, the PWM is too much for me.

He’s right about Huawei, too. Both their notebook and smartphone lineups are excellent right now. One of the only companies who might be able to turn me away from Apple.
 

nitschi

macrumors member
Jan 17, 2008
62
130
Vienna, Austria
I'm hoping that they release an iPhone XR mini also that is either the same size or smaller than the iPhone 8.
Exactly!

I love my XS, it's the ideal size for me. But we've been waiting for a replacement for my wife's iPhone SE – and the XR is just too big. I know that bigger phones are a big thing (ha!) especially in the Asian markets where Apple wants to grow, but a smaller XR would be a day 1 buy for my wife. *shrug*
 

mprime_17

macrumors member
Oct 5, 2018
42
53
"competition from Huawei's Mate 20 series"

Yeah no... as good as the mate 20 is, its not going to sell as much to be a cause. Its like saying competition from pixel 3 or note 9 or LG G7, or 1+6t
 

The_Interloper

macrumors 6502
Oct 28, 2016
292
772
It's simply too expensive. All Apple's phones are now. Here in the UK, wages have been stagnant for years; we simply cannot absorb these 20-25% price increases on top of the exchange rate pressure we're seeing due to Brexit.

These aren't even affordable on contract. Carriers are now touting 3-year plans instead of 2; that's an extra year with the same phone just so you can pay the same monthly charge as before. Meanwhile, Huawei are killing it here. Their phones are gradually appearing everywhere; lots of new Nokias and Samsungs too (as the latter are frequently discounted).

The 1080p LCD-based Huawei P20 Lite (which the XR roughly competes with) is just £229 outright. Is the XR better? Maybe. But it's not £520 better. Even going up tiers to the P20 (£399) and the flagship P20 Pro (£629) make the iPhone prices look ludicrous. I just don't see how Apple is going to sustain these prices against such decent competition.
 

Breaking Good

macrumors 65816
Sep 28, 2012
1,290
1,004
Sometimes I don't think Apple understands their market. Make high-quality, repairable, expensive but not overpriced stuff that makes my life better/easier and you've got me for life. Cancelling the Time Capsule/AirPort Express, not updating the Mac lineup, and jacking up the price of the iPhones isn't a long-term winning strategy.
I think Apple understands their customers quite well. However, I also believe that the iPhone XR was never meant to be a big seller in North America or Europe. I think it was targeted at China first and maybe India second.

These two countries have a very large percentage of poor people. But their upper and upper-middle classes in terms of actual people are incredibly huge as compared to other countries.
 
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