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Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

For me, all the products are linked. I like having my data sync'd easily between my iPad, phone and laptop. However, as I start to replace some of the software (keychain to Bitwarden, Safari to Firefox) coupled with the fact I don't think the newer laptops or iPads are value for money, then once I decide to switch one device away from the Apple ecosystem, the others lose their main advantage pretty much immediately. After which it comes down solely to price, and Apple never wins.

At the moment I have a 1st gen iPad mini (which is just about hanging on to life), a late-2013 MBP (which runs great, albeit needing a new battery) and an iPhone 6S (ditto). Once one goes, it'll be like dominoes.

I don't want to change though. I'm hoping a decent laptop is unveiled before mine needs replacing, I quite like the XR but find it over-priced, and I'm considering ditching the tablet completely as there's no new mini and the Pros are over-engineered for what I'd use one for.

Hmm - three paragraphs just to say I'm on the fence ;)
 
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Hey Ming, I think there are also a few people that also still don't like a few things about the direction the iPhone has taken with the "X" line. For me, I still hate the notch and the rounded corners that go with it (yes, I'd prefer a rectangular screen and a chin and forehead if that's what it takes to house the sensors and cameras), and I still prefer touch ID and a physical home button.

Those are the reasons (in general) I didn't buy an X last year, and am buying an 8 instead of an XR or XS for me and my wife this year.
 
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Did Kuo not see this or will he come out with a new "forecast" next week?

Apple was the top-selling mobile phone brand on Alibaba platforms during Singles Day, beating Chinese rivals
  • Apple was the top-selling mobile phone brand during Alibaba's record-breaking 24-hour Singles Day shopping event.
 
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jeffg1 said:
Why is it whenever apple is expected to sell less items, either Tim Cook or other analysts blame either a trade war, or some other reason, but never say that the consumer is slowly waking up to see that apple's old tech isn't enough to sell as much as it used to?
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Because it a wag the dog, those things maybe hurting them some. But they take the eyes off of Apple's own problems. iPhone and iPad sales are not really going to grow any more. Their only bet is to break into India. Which they seem to be failing at. China really has screwed them. Apple's own mistakes but more on China's part. They have a counterfeit problem. Apple stores that are not Apple store hurt the brand. Also Apple hasn't been able to open their own store as fast as they want to. But also competition from local brands copying a lot of Apple's tech and improving on it. These brands also take in local trends. China social credit system also hurts them (buy local).
 
Baymowe335 said:
Wow, I'm so scared. Typical guessing from analysts who made up their original forecast and now make up their revision to the made up forecast with no real data.

Ming Chi Kuo is a good leaker for features, but no analyst has really ever nailed demand for iPhones. It's too hard.
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I’m willing to bet the removal of sales numbers from reports is to help seal leaks as no one but upper management has access to certain data.
 
Apple will never admit it, but demand for Touch ID & a physical home button is still strong. That's why I bought a top of the line iPhone 8. I'm not saying Face ID doesn't work. There's just a lot of situations where it is impractical and Touch ID & the Home Button is simply safer, like when someone else in the car wants my iPhone unlocked while I'm driving in heavy traffic. I can't look into the phone and do any complicated swipe routines while driving.

That and the pricing. I simply will not buy a phone that costs more than computers I've previously purchased.
 
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indiekiduk said:
One thing that could hurt the XR is all the ugly colours, it devalues it like the 5c. They should have just done silver and black.
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As an old windows/lumia hold out I love the new colors. Just wont pay $750 to have a color I like. My blue galaxy is in a case so I don't see the color anyway
 
BaltimoreMediaBlog said:
Apple will never admit it, but demand for Touch ID & a physical home button is still strong. That's why I bought a top of the line iPhone 8. I'm not saying Face ID doesn't work. There's just a lot of situations where it is impractical and Touch ID & the Home Button is simply safer, like when someone else in the car wants my iPhone unlocked while I'm driving in heavy traffic. I can't look into the phone and do any complicated swipe routines while driving.

That and the pricing. I simply will not buy a phone that costs more than computers I've previously purchased.
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They already proved that wrong with the pricing of the iPhone X and removal of the home button. You saying "Touch ID demand is strong" is entirely based on your anecdotal feeling and not on any facts.
 
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genovelle said:
I’m willing to bet the removal of sales numbers from reports is to help seal leaks as no one but upper management has access to certain data.
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You act like Janice in accounting couldn’t run a query against the appropriate GL accounts and piece together this data.

janice.png
 
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Jetfire said:
Because it a wag the dog, those things maybe hurting them some. But they take the eyes off of Apple's own problems. iPhone and iPad sales are not really going to grow any more. Their only bet is to break into India. Which they seem to be failing at. China really has screwed them. Apple's own mistakes but more on China's part. They have a counterfeit problem. Apple stores that are not Apple store hurt the brand. Also Apple hasn't been able to open their own store as fast as they want to. But also competition from local brands copying a lot of Apple's tech and improving on it. These brands also take in local trends. China social credit system also hurts them (buy local).
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Apple just grew sales in China 19% despite currency headwinds from the crazy strong dollar.
 
Breaking Good said:
I think Apple understands their customers quite well.
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In a lot of cases, yea, but turning Apple into a fashion company instead of company for misfits, geeks, and artists doesn't seem to me the right choice. I'm not a anti-Apple homer or w/e, I just don't understand the decisions they make sometimes, as a customer. I'm even pro-USB-C and new MacBook keyboard, but getting rid of Time Capsule, mediocre Mac mini update that took like 6 years? I think you can agree with this point?

Breaking Good said:
However, I also believe that the iPhone XR was never meant to be a big seller in North America or Europe. I think it was targeted at China first and maybe India second.

These two countries have a very large percentage of poor people. But their upper and upper-middle classes in terms of actual people are incredibly huge as compared to other countries.
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Good point
 
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More and more folks including myself are going with the "good enough" models rather than the higher end ones anymore. When the iPhone 8/8+ cost hundreds less and have mostly the same functionality, it is increasingly difficult for most people to justify the price to move up to the XR or XS. Same for the iPad when the 6th gen 9.7" model is hundreds less than the 11" Pro and is more than good enough for typical usage.
 
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Marzel said:
Life of "analysts" appears to be very difficult. First they "predict" sales using huge ranges and then they keep updating those figures every two weeks. Kuo went from a 55-60m Q1 prediction to 47-52m (and from 100m LTD to 70m) lol.
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They're paid for this, while you're not. But it seems that it is you the one who's having fun. Good for you
 
The_Interloper said:
It's simply too expensive. All Apple's phones are now. Here in the UK, wages have been stagnant for years; we simply cannot absorb these 20-25% price increases on top of the exchange rate pressure we're seeing due to Brexit.

These aren't even affordable on contract. Carriers are now touting 3-year plans instead of 2; that's an extra year with the same phone just so you can pay the same monthly charge as before. Meanwhile, Huawei are killing it here. Their phones are gradually appearing everywhere; lots of new Nokias and Samsungs too (as the latter are frequently discounted).

The 1080p LCD-based Huawei P20 Lite (which the XR roughly competes with) is just £229 outright. Is the XR better? Maybe. But it's not £520 better. Even going up tiers to the P20 (£399) and the flagship P20 Pro (£629) make the iPhone prices look ludicrous. I just don't see how Apple is going to sustain these prices against such decent competition.
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I totally agree with you. Except Apple's services in the US there isn't much compelling about Apple's ecosystem to sustain those exorbitant high prices in Europe, India and whatever other country.
I like the iPhones but I can't justify the prices. How come Huawei is selling their flagship phones at a fraction of the price Apple is selling? Both made in china and both have to pay taxes.
There was once a reason to chose Apple, but those same reason that made it compelling in the past (services, better OS) are holding them back now. Everybody seems to out innovate Apple on soft-, and hardware these days and Apples only respons is to make their products even more expensive and their ecosystem more closed. There will come a day people realize their eco is an expensive trap.

Don't get me wrong, but I do hope Kuo is right and Apple will see this as a wake up call. I've never seen such a nice company resting on it's laurels and thinking they don't have to innovate because all what it produces will sell.

Come on Cook & Co, forget exorbitant profits and settle with normal profits. Use those other profits by investing in making Siri, maps, hard- and software innovative, attractive and competitive again!

Question to mr. Cook: why are investors more important to you than your customers?
 
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I have to pause and wonder what happens when an analyst becomes as highly regarded as Kuo is (he is, whether you like it or not)? What he says about Apple can/will move the markets, reliably. You could easily conclude that Apple's stock price would drop, after his report. I'll leave the rest to your own imagination.
 
When Sam's Club had a 1-day special with up to $300 gift card for iPhones this past Saturday, it still wasn't enough to entice me to upgrade from my iP6. The combination of how I use my phone, the cost of each iPhones and how much more you have to pay for a larger capacity memory, I still can't come to terms paying for it. In addition, the ongoing dispute between Apple and Qualcomm, I'm going to wait unless my current phone craps out, run out of memory or no longer can update the iOS. With the battery changed out, I am still GTG.

jeffg1 said:
Why is it whenever apple is expected to sell less items, either Tim Cook or other analysts blame either a trade war, or some other reason, but never say that the consumer is slowly waking up to see that apple's old tech isn't enough to sell as much as it used to?
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Yes and the iPhones are made in China and it is not exported. Kuo was overly optimistic in his evaluation and now has to provide excuses to save face and his reputation.
 
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