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Ming-Chi Kuo: Global Apple Watch Pre-Orders Exceed 2.3 Million Units

Dub1ous said:
Some people who hate U2 would probably proceed to act like it was just endorsed by Hitler and Satan and burn their watches. ;)
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They would act like there were Satan with the Nazi flag painted in human blood on their guitar, that's how much some people for some reason hate U2.

They wouldn't just burn their watch, they would exorcise them and them smash them to bit with hydraulic presses like they were the terminator reincarnate.
 
Regarding the production bottleneck... I get why the watches are constrained, but why are the bands? I ended up having to change my order to a sport band because the leather loop models were delayed. The leather loop by itself is stated as shipping in "May" (no specific date).
 
boshii said:
I never said 100% of iPhone owners need to buy a watch for it to be a success; but like the article says, one-tenth of iPhone users buying the watch means only the hardcore Apple fans have preordered. That doesn't make it a success.
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What parameters do you have that means success?
 
GizmoDVD said:
It infact does.

Buying a $350+ accessory on top of owning an iPhone plus future App sales means it's a huge success.
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sinsin07 said:
What parameters do you have that means success?
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http://www.cultofmac.com/296353/apple-hopes-sell-50-million-watches-2015/

They will fall well short of their "50 million watches sold" goal if sales continue at this rate. That doesn't make it a huge success.

Don't get me wrong, I have a 42mm SS and 42mm Sport preordered, I just don't think these sales numbers are that impressive considering what their initial goals were.
 
boshii said:
If you read the story you would've seen that less than one-tenth of iPhone owners preordered the watch. I wouldn't call it a success yet.

These numbers also don't account for the people who preordered multiple and will return some.
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Actually, I would call it a huge success based on that estimate, considering more than 500 million iPhones have been sold. And we're talking pre-orders of Apple Watches, and less than a week. Throwing in a red herring about returns is pointless and irrelevant. If sales keep up at this rate or increase, Apple has another hit on its hands (pun intended). However, ALL of this talk is nothing more than speculation because no official sales numbers have been released,
 
boshii said:
http://www.cultofmac.com/296353/apple-hopes-sell-50-million-watches-2015/

They will fall well short of their "50 million watches sold" goal if sales continue at this rate. That doesn't make it a huge success.

Don't get me wrong, I have a 42mm SS and 42mm Sport preordered, I just don't think these sales numbers are that impressive considering what their initial goals were.
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It's too bad what you think will make it a success doesn't have any weight, otherwise your post might have some meaning.
 
Cuban Missles said:
I am waiting for timmy to give us the numbers. But all indications are that this Apple watch thing is a winner. I thought a few million a year would be awesome, but 2.5 a month is just mind blowing. Given that people are not going to replace their watch every year (well maybe not given, but in my world...) they will plateau fairly quick i suspect.
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Actually, if they "only" sell 10-15M this year (my estimate is 12M), I would not expect a plateau any time soon (to get a plateau, you need to saturate the buyer market). In fact, this will probably follow more a Ipod curve (or Iphone curve) than the Ipad curve. Long replacement time, but as more and more get out there, more people will buy them. I think you won't get the full sales potential until the third release. The fact that people can pass their watch to others in their family (I think this will happen more than with any other Apple device), makes me think that sales will be robust and growing for 5-6 years minimum.
 
boshii said:
I never said 100% of iPhone owners need to buy a watch for it to be a success; but like the article says, one-tenth of iPhone users buying the watch means only the hardcore Apple fans have preordered. That doesn't make it a success.
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You think one-tenth of iPhone users are hardcore Apple fans?
 
boshii said:
I never said 100% of iPhone owners need to buy a watch for it to be a success; but like the article says, one-tenth of iPhone users buying the watch means only the hardcore Apple fans have preordered. That doesn't make it a success.
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If one-tenth of all the iPhone buyers from the last quarter of 2014 get a watch, thats almost 7.5 million watches alone.

How many does Apple need to sell before you will consider it a success?
 
boshii said:
If you read the story you would've seen that less than one-tenth of iPhone owners preordered the watch. I wouldn't call it a success yet.
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Like others, I have to question your idea of success. If 1/10th of iPhone users bought an iWatch on Day 1 that would actually be a mind blowing success. 1/100th would be impressive. It's a $350+ accessory that no one in the general public (besides celebrities) has worn out of an Apple Store yet. Again it's barely been on the market and it's a new product.
 
a1kim said:
Regarding the production bottleneck... I get why the watches are constrained, but why are the bands? I ended up having to change my order to a sport band because the leather loop models were delayed. The leather loop by itself is stated as shipping in "May" (no specific date).
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Yeah it seems kind of nuts. I ordered an extra band after trying it in person, the Milanese loop. June?? Seems hard to explain...
 
boshii said:
It's in the original article. I didn't come up with that on my own.
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"suggesting that hardcore Apple fans have made up the bulk of Watch" is different from, "one-tenth of iPhone users buying the watch means only the hardcore Apple fans have preordered".

You seem to be mitigating how large of a customer base one-tenth of iPhone users is.
 
boshii said:
http://www.cultofmac.com/296353/apple-hopes-sell-50-million-watches-2015/

They will fall well short of their "50 million watches sold" goal if sales continue at this rate. That doesn't make it a huge success.

Don't get me wrong, I have a 42mm SS and 42mm Sport preordered, I just don't think these sales numbers are that impressive considering what their initial goals were.
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What kind of math are you using? This was 1-2 million online pre-orders to a limited number of countries in less than a week. When it becomes available for sale in stores worldwide, you can expect numbers to jump dramatically. Same as what happens with new iPhone sales. I think 50 million units sold by late December is an easily attained goal.
 
output555 said:
What kind of math are you using? This was 1-2 million online pre-orders to a limited number of countries in less than a week. When it becomes available for sale in stores worldwide, you can expect numbers to jump dramatically. Same as what happens with new iPhone sales. I think 50 million units sold by late December is an easily attained goal.
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We have more people ordering these watches then American's working at Wal-Mart...btw, no one at Walmart can afford said watch.
 
boshii said:
If you read the story you would've seen that less than one-tenth of iPhone owners preordered the watch. I wouldn't call it a success yet.

These numbers also don't account for the people who preordered multiple and will return some.
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I'd say that's a massive success considering barely anyone has even tried one yet.
 
boshii said:
http://www.cultofmac.com/296353/apple-hopes-sell-50-million-watches-2015/

They will fall well short of their "50 million watches sold" goal if sales continue at this rate. That doesn't make it a huge success.

Don't get me wrong, I have a 42mm SS and 42mm Sport preordered, I just don't think these sales numbers are that impressive considering what their initial goals were.
Click to expand...

By years end, it will sell about 15-20M. In 2016, with a second version out, it will sell 35-40M (with an ASP of close to $550). You can bank on that.

So, in the first 8 months,
- Selling 20 times more than what Android wear sold, is not a success?
- Selling twice as much watches as any watch/band of any type has sold since those things have come on the market a decade ago, is not success?
- Selling more than the Iphone did in its first 18 months in 9 months is not success?
- Making probably 100% of the profits in the segment not success?
- Meeting the expectations of 99% of analysts (which had 15-20M sales in 2015) is not success?
- Having a ASP for this product much higher than the one for the Ipad (making them a better sale).

By all "non insane" measures of success. This will be a success.

That this further entrenches the rest of the Apple ecosystem, increases the value of their top seller, the Iphone, its just an added bonus to Apple.
 
Dwalls90 said:
That's really low production figures.

If they estimate 2.3M+ were pre-ordered, and Apple would be lucky to produce 2.5M by June, that means there will be severe backlogs into at least the mid-late summer.
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I think they're saying 2.5 million produced in June alone. Not 2.5 total by that time

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boshii said:
If you read the story you would've seen that less than one-tenth of iPhone owners preordered the watch. I wouldn't call it a success yet.

These numbers also don't account for the people who preordered multiple and will return some.
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Seriously?!? We're talking about preorders. If there's anywhere NEAR 10% of iPhone owners preordering one that would be a HUGE success!! For a completely new product category. You have any idea how many people out there have an iPhone? If 1 in 10 iphone people get this that's HUGE
 
what's this 1/10th of iPhone user?
- Compatible phone? 5/5C/5S/6/6+
-- # of phones ever sold? Or ACTIVE phones?

- ALL iPhones ever sold?
- ALL current active iPhone?

Just curious.
 
I think 1 in 10 is a pipe dream at this point. Perhaps a few years down the road, but not this year, or even next year. What we're seeing here is typical preorder surge.
 
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