Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone XR Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected, Slashes Shipment Estimates

[MadeTheSwitch]

PRICING - and screen quality - are likely issues with this phone. Apple missed the mark with this one.

I guess I am bucking the trend then. I think the screen is outstanding...almost cannot even tell that it isn’t an oled. And even the hefty price was not enough to deter me from getting one and completing our household switch to full Apple products by finally replacing the Android phones we were using. The timing was right, they finally had a product I wanted in the form of the XR, so I pulled the trigger and couldn’t be happier. That being said I do think the price needs to come down more. But at least it wasn’t a thousand dollar phone which in my mind is just ridiculous and a price I will never pay no matter how good it is.

For me, XR was just the right balance. Not a $1000 phone, but not an old design with smaller screen and big bezels either. To me, it is the Goldilocks phone....that sweet spot in the middle that was “just right”. YMMV.

 

[dilbert99]

Dude...the iPhone X was the most popular phone in the lineup, the end.

Do all the weighted averages you want, but make sure the X is the best selling model.

An average is a average (as in I am not applying any weights like you are implying). I was simply pointing out that Apple sell more lower priced devices than they do more expensive ones.

I really don't care how you get there. The $760 just proves ASPs were up $110/y/y, driven by the most popular iPhone X.

Correct, Apple have inceased their prices so tha ASP is going up.
Apple can spin anything they like and make statements like in the quarters the phone was released the X was the best selling model, which in those quarters it was.

My entire point in all of this was people don't buy the previous year's phones more than the current models. We keep hearing "people are buying cheaper iPhones." They aren't.

They are skewing towards lower price phones than they are more expensive ones, the ASP and flat sales show this.

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This is why you are just wrong. You refuse to believe the X was the most popular model despite them telling you so? THE most expensive phone WAS the best selling model.

Why don't you show a mix of phones that show they are selling more of the expensive phones - its not a hard exercise for someone who buys shares.

Do some weighted averages and make the X the best selling phone. You can't get to $760 ASP without selling a lot of flagship models which include the iPhone 8 for that year. iPhone 8 started at $699, which is still below the average.

For FY 2018, they sold the SE, 6S, 6S Plus, 7, 7 Plus, 8, 8 Plus, and X. Only the 8 Plus and the X were above $760 in a baseline configuration. Try to think about what that means.

An average is an average. sales/units, there is nothing weighted about it.

Take 1*800 + 1*1000
the average is 900

Take 2*800 + 1 * 1000
The average is 866.

As you sell more cheaper phones the average is closer to the less expensive models.

Take 1*800 + 2 * 1000

The average is 933.

As you sell more expensive phones, the average is closer to the more expensive models
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That still hasn't been disproven as a matter of fact.

Perhaps you care to show using calculation how we get to $760 ASP - its not a hard exercise.

 

[I7guy]

..

Perhaps you care to show using calculation how we get to $760 ASP - its not a hard exercise.

Unless one wants to use 4th order differential equations, I believe it's an impossible exercise.But if you are confident you can dissect apples numbers into a simple equation, please feel free to show us all.

 

[dilbert99]

Unless one wants to use 4th order differential equations, I believe it's an impossible exercise.But if you are confident you can dissect apples numbers into a simple equation, please feel free to show us all.

It’s simple multiplication. I just see excuses...

 

[I7guy]

It’s simple multiplication. I just see excuses...

In other words, all of these last 100s of posts are opinions, the experts dont know what was sold of what and you say it’s a simple multiplication but won’t provide your factually based and accurate conclusion.

Leave it to the reader to determine the bottom line of this.

 

[alexnyc8]

Not convinced.

I think the lack of the dual camera is an issue for the XR. Apple wants people to upgrade their 7 Plus but they then lose the optical zoom unless they buy the more expensive Xs or Xs Max. The Xr in some respects is a downgrade.

camera definitely an issue
the bigger issue is faceid big brother and lack of ppi vs 7 plus

this phone must have 1080p screen at least preferrably oled
have dual cams
no faceid
cost no more than 650 for 128gb model

then watch people upgrade their 7 and 8 plus iphones

 

[I7guy]

camera definitely an issue
the bigger issue is faceid big brother and lack of ppi vs 7 plus

this phone must have 1080p screen at least preferrably oled
have dual cams
no faceid
cost no more than 650 for 128gb model

then watch people upgrade their 7 and 8 plus iphones

OLED is happening at that price point. I doubt 1080 is. The iphone se at release had cost $450. I can't see apple bundling 128 gb, oled, dual cameras, 1080 for $650.

 

[dewski]

Why would anyone go for LCD when OLED is available? The XR is redundant. I am not expecting Apple to introduce its new upgraded version next year.

because 90% of iphone buyers do not know what LCD and OLED mean, and don't care to know.

 

[arkitect]

because 90% of iphone buyers do not know what LCD and OLED mean, and don't care to know.

Agreed.
Far too often we here at MacRumours forget that most people just do not think about these things in the detail some of us do.
They go on what is the latest, what's affordable(ish) and looks.
Specs are a distant 4th I'd venture.

 

[Tec972]

FaceID is not the end of facial mapping or depth sensing. It’s a feature available today but part of a larger technological shift for future implementation and functionality of the technology.

Apple will be ahead in this area as a result of pioneering this implementation of facial recognition in mobile devices.

You, like most people, forget the big picture.

It was never about FaceID instead of TouchID.

I agree with your statement. I did not forget about the big picture. Where i might disagree, (and history is on my side) with apple is that they are ahead for now... But its like almost everything else they pioneered and then ignored!

Much of their software and Siri come to mind. Apple gets lazy when it's no longer a selling point and where they were once ahead they quickly fall behind. Because it's always about pushing devices. Not staying ahead or providing their loyal fan base with the best.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I agree with your statement. I did not forget about the big picture. Where i might disagree, (and history is on my side) with apple is that they are ahead for now... But its like almost everything else they pioneered and then ignored!

Much of their software and Siri come to mind. Apple gets lazy when it's no longer a selling point and where they were once ahead they quickly fall behind. Because it's always about pushing devices. Not staying ahead or providing their loyal fan base with the best.

Oh yeah Siri is possibly the most frustrating thing I use on my iPhone and Apple Watch. As you say it was Apple that really brought voice assistance to the mainstream on smartphones yet are hugely behind amazon and google now in this field. My Amazon echo is light years ahead of my iPhone all the way down to setting a simple timer. Siri can take several attempts whereas the other never fails. Apple got lazy big time.

 

[I7guy]

Oh yeah Siri is possibly the most frustrating thing I use on my iPhone and Apple Watch. As you say it was Apple that really brought voice assistance to the mainstream on smartphones yet are hugely behind amazon and google now in this field. My Amazon echo is light years ahead of my iPhone all the way down to setting a simple timer. Siri can take several attempts whereas the other never fails. Apple got lazy big time.

I don't think "apple got lazy" as much as the mandate of making sure customer data is safe is at play here. There are not a lot of specifics so it makes it difficult to go into detail, but apple has made some hires recently (that were in the MR headlines) about Apple trying to beef up it's AI team.

We shall see. Personally, for the most part, I find interacting with smart assistants annoying.

 

[Gilligan's last elephant]

I don't think "apple got lazy" as much as the mandate of making sure customer data is safe is at play here. There are not a lot of specifics so it makes it difficult to go into detail, but apple has made some hires recently (that were in the MR headlines) about Apple trying to beef up it's AI team.

We shall see. Personally, for the most part, I find interacting with smart assistants annoying.

I find interacting with smart, smart assistants, anything but annoying.

 

[I7guy]

I find interacting with smart, smart assistants, anything but annoying.

I tried google, alexa and siri and I find interacting with any of these so-called "smart" assistants, extremely annoying. I have an echo dot, that I recently used to set a timer reminder. First time I used it in about 11 months. Siri is at least there on the phone and occasionally use it for minor stuff.

I have Alexa on my phone hooked up to my car, so that I can remote start it. I never use it, go directly to the app instead. But that's me; I find none of the them particularly "smart".

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I don't think "apple got lazy" as much as the mandate of making sure customer data is safe is at play here. There are not a lot of specifics so it makes it difficult to go into detail, but apple has made some hires recently (that were in the MR headlines) about Apple trying to beef up it's AI team.

We shall see. Personally, for the most part, I find interacting with smart assistants annoying.

Something has definitely changed as I used to be able to ask Siri to set a timer through my watch and it would do it first time. Now it occasionally does it first time but mostly vibrates, tells me to ‘hang on’ and doesn’t do it. The same on my iPhone. It’s pretty crap and used to be much more responsive. If Apple have limited it recently then it’s pointless offering a half baked service IMO. Amazon are superb in this regard right now and so are Google.

 

[macfacts]

I don't think "apple got lazy" as much as the mandate of making sure customer data is safe is at play here. There are not a lot of specifics so it makes it difficult to go into detail, but apple has made some hires recently (that were in the MR headlines) about Apple trying to beef up it's AI team.

We shall see. Personally, for the most part, I find interacting with smart assistants annoying.

You have no evidence that Siri's poor voice recognition is due to "respecting privacy".

 

[I7guy]

You have no evidence that Siri's poor voice recognition is due to "respecting privacy".

Hence my comment about “I don’t think” and prior comments I’ve read on this subject.

 

[Baymowe335]

 

[Tec972]

I don't think "apple got lazy" as much as the mandate of making sure customer data is safe is at play here. There are not a lot of specifics so it makes it difficult to go into detail, but apple has made some hires recently (that were in the MR headlines) about Apple trying to beef up it's AI team.

We shall see. Personally, for the most part, I find interacting with smart assistants annoying.

You can believe that, but it hasn't just been Siri. I also don't buy the argument that its about protecting privacy. There were many things siri doesn't do or find that have nothing to do with privacy. Granted it has gotten better since everyone is up in arms about their essential abandonment of Siri.

There are many things they no longer put resources to. Much of their software, has been mothballed. They get lazy on many things. Mac pro, mac mini, much of their own software. What about all the hoopla on stickers and messaging effects? Those haven't seen any updates or refreshes either. They push it as a shiny new toy because their phones have gotten just boring, and they have to have something to tote each year to regurgitate the same insipid device year over year. Then they forget about it. This is the largest/richest tech company in the world because loyal fans made it that way. Now, they try to nickel and dime everyone to death. It's the leadership. He not a product guy, hes a numbers and supply chain guy. That's why apple is dongling you to death!!! It's all about ripping you off. Jobs would never have allowed the magic mouse 2, the first apple pencil charging the way it did or the endless dongles you needed for your mac pro and iPhone. Just absolutely sloppy, disgusting, and contrary to how he thought things should be..

 

[I7guy]

You can believe that, but it hasn't just been Siri. I also don't buy the argument that its about protecting privacy. There were many things siri doesn't do or find that have nothing to do with privacy. Granted it has gotten better since everyone is up in arms about their essential abandonment of Siri.

There are many things they no longer put resources to. Much of their software, has been mothballed. They get lazy on many things. Mac pro, mac mini, much of their own software. What about all the hoopla on stickers and messaging effects? Those haven't seen any updates or refreshes either. They push it as a shiny new toy because their phones have gotten just boring, and they have to have something to tote each year to regurgitate the same insipid device year over year. Then they forget about it. This is the largest/richest tech company in the world because loyal fans made it that way. Now, they try to nickel and dime everyone to death. It's the leadership. He not a product guy, hes a numbers and supply chain guy. That's why apple is dongling you to death!!! It's all about ripping you off. Jobs would never have allowed the magic mouse 2, the first apple pencil charging the way it did or the endless dongles you needed for your mac pro and iPhone. Just absolutely sloppy, disgusting, and contrary to how he thought things should be..

Quite the rant. Starts off with discussing Siri, which I commented on and ended up by saying how “sloppy, disgusting”....etc.

Good job.

I thought the first Apple Pencil was absolutely ingenious. Plug it in for 15 seconds for a good charge.

 

[Abazigal]

There are many things they no longer put resources to. Much of their software, has been mothballed. They get lazy on many things. Mac pro, mac mini, much of their own software. What about all the hoopla on stickers and messaging effects? Those haven't seen any updates or refreshes either. They push it as a shiny new toy because their phones have gotten just boring, and they have to have something to tote each year to regurgitate the same insipid device year over year. Then they forget about it. This is the largest/richest tech company in the world because loyal fans made it that way. Now, they try to nickel and dime everyone to death. It's the leadership. He not a product guy, hes a numbers and supply chain guy. That's why apple is dongling you to death!!! It's all about ripping you off. Jobs would never have allowed the magic mouse 2, the first apple pencil charging the way it did or the endless dongles you needed for your mac pro and iPhone. Just absolutely sloppy, disgusting, and contrary to how he thought things should be..

I believe this is by deliberate design.

Apple is going full-stream on iPhones and wearables, which in turn means less attention on Macs, and while I recognise that this isn't a popular opinion here, that's an arrangement I am perfectly fine with.

And I don't know why people knock on Tim for being the supply chain guy. Of course he's not overseeing Apple's product design; that's Jony Ive's job.

 

[ipponrg]

You can believe that, but it hasn't just been Siri. I also don't buy the argument that its about protecting privacy. There were many things siri doesn't do or find that have nothing to do with privacy. Granted it has gotten better since everyone is up in arms about their essential abandonment of Siri.

There are many things they no longer put resources to. Much of their software, has been mothballed. They get lazy on many things. Mac pro, mac mini, much of their own software. What about all the hoopla on stickers and messaging effects? Those haven't seen any updates or refreshes either. They push it as a shiny new toy because their phones have gotten just boring, and they have to have something to tote each year to regurgitate the same insipid device year over year. Then they forget about it. This is the largest/richest tech company in the world because loyal fans made it that way. Now, they try to nickel and dime everyone to death. It's the leadership. He not a product guy, hes a numbers and supply chain guy. That's why apple is dongling you to death!!! It's all about ripping you off. Jobs would never have allowed the magic mouse 2, the first apple pencil charging the way it did or the endless dongles you needed for your mac pro and iPhone. Just absolutely sloppy, disgusting, and contrary to how he thought things should be..

Regarding software, they have always had subpar software in both their MacOS and iOS ecosystems even back in the Jobs days. You should not be surprised by this.

The thing that keeps a lot of people in the ecosystem (and testing their patience) is the previous synergy that was well done. Given the current fragmentation, we will see soon in the next year or 2 how people/Apple adjust

 

[Gilligan's last elephant]

I tried google, alexa and siri and I find interacting with any of these so-called "smart" assistants, extremely annoying. I have an echo dot, that I recently used to set a timer reminder. First time I used it in about 11 months. Siri is at least there on the phone and occasionally use it for minor stuff.

I have Alexa on my phone hooked up to my car, so that I can remote start it. I never use it, go directly to the app instead. But that's me; I find none of the them particularly "smart".

My wife needed to collect medicine from the chemist. I said I would call to verify they were dispensing today Sunday.
"OK Google. Call Boots the Chemist Broughty Ferry".
Seconds later I was connected. How could that be considered "annoying" ?
And this while driving the car.
I find requests like that very rarely fail.
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I tried google, alexa and siri and I find interacting with any of these so-called "smart" assistants, extremely annoying. I have an echo dot, that I recently used to set a timer reminder. First time I used it in about 11 months. Siri is at least there on the phone and occasionally use it for minor stuff.

I have Alexa on my phone hooked up to my car, so that I can remote start it. I never use it, go directly to the app instead. But that's me; I find none of the them particularly "smart".

My wife needed to collect medicine from the chemist. I said I would call to verify they were dispensing today Sunday.
"OK Google. Call Boots the Chemist Broughty Ferry".
Seconds later I was connected. How could that be considered "annoying" ?
And this while driving the car.
I find requests like that very rarely fail.

 

[I7guy]

...Given the current fragmentation, we will see soon in the next year or 2 how people/Apple adjust

What current fragmentation and what is there to adjust to? Obviously I do t see an issue with different hardware as long as the software experiences are equivalent across the board.

 

[Gilligan's last elephant]

I tried google, alexa and siri and I find interacting with any of these so-called "smart" assistants, extremely annoying.

.

Again, whilst driving I had forgotton who my football team were playing next.
OK Google, and they are playing Alloa next, reported moments later.
How can that be considered "extremely annoying" ??