I have no recollection of regrets because I bought too powerful a processor, too much RAM, or too large a drive. In 30+ years of building and buying both personally and professionally, my regrets are many - and they are all a result of throttled processors, limited RAM, and hours screwing around to have the files I need on the local drive.
I believe the original question was not about whether you could get by with less, but rather whether a mini with the M4 Pro would be better than the M2 Max. Particularly for your needs, these systems are going to be similar, but the Studio is specifically designed for what you're about. I'm guessing with the specs you're talking about, the new M4 Studio won't still be in budget, so I would buy now. If you think it might still be within your budget, hold out.
I'm currently writing this on a 2017 iMac 27-inch because I pulled it back out when my 2019 MBP 16" couldn't keep up due to thermal throttling. The money I spent putting 40 GB of RAM into this box doesn't bother me, but the squeezed .5 TB drive on the MBP does. These aren't systems that can simply be upgraded as they get limited, so I find it critical to prevent limitations on the front end. By the time your Studio is outdated, you will have already replaced it because you needed more oomph, but the difference between the pro-level build of the Studio and the consumer level of the Mini could well speed up the need to replace the system.
Get all that you can and embrace the renewed joy of the fleeting magic of crazy new speed