Honestly, the Cy Young doesn't really mean ****. It's voted on by writers.
Beckett should have won it last season anyways.
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Honestly, the Cy Young doesn't really mean ****. It's voted on by writers.
Beckett should have won it last season anyways.
The problem with that sort of analysis is that by those measures Beckett would have been flat out released and be selling car insurance last year instead of winning a world series.
Beckett's career ERA vs NYY: 6.56
4.26 versus TB
4.50 versus Toronto
2.95 versus Baltimore
Santana's career ERA vs NYY: 2.66
3.40 vs Boston
3.76 vs Baltimore
4.84 vs Toronto
2.79 vs Tampa Bay
Career ERA in Fenway Park:
Santana - 6.89
Beckett - 4.51
(obviously a little skewed because Beckett has 2 seasons there of not facing the Red Sox offense while Santana always faced the Sox' offense).
Career ERA in Yankee Stadium:
Beckett - 6.86
Santana - 1.17
So by your own criteria, Boston should never have traded for Beckett. He simply doesn't have a good track record against AL East teams.
Keep Hanley Ramirez and just plug in with youngsters with less of a track record.
The difference being is that you would be tieing up Santana for six years,more than likely in excess of $150 million (through the age of 34) and giving up at least two top tier prospects.And I'll take a righty over a lefty ace anyday in Fenway. Way more risk involved with Santana,not only in terms of $$$$. If there wasn't,the Sox would have made the deal as they were close to it... And I'm not about to put Hanley Ramirez up there in Cooperstown. One good year with the Marlins isn't enough to sell me just yet. I'm not a fan of mortgaging the future to win now. If the Sox hadn't won it in 04 or 07,the deal would have been done in a heartbeat.
If you're not a fan of mortgaging the future to win now, you must have hated the Beckett trade.
Or turning Papelbon into a closer.
Or signging JD Drew
Or trading for Gagne
and on and on and on
Bottom line, if you have a chance at the best pitcher in the game, you go for it.
Papelbon was not the closer all along. Never was.
That sort of let's me know what's going on here though, so it's a useful thing to discover.
For Boston? Absolutely.
They have the money and the farm system to send the pieces to take their pitching staff from very good to absolutely elite.
Then add in Schilling's age/injury history, Wakefield's age/history, Beckett's injury history...a little bad luck and Lester is their #2 starter.
For the Mets? Even moreso.
Papelbon was a closer in college and the Sox knew he could be used for either position. However, they had Keith Foulke as the closer while Papelbon was coming up through the minors (and figured Foulke wouldn't just drop off all of a sudden) so they started to shape him in to a starter.
Nah, we only lost one guy and Beckett was coming in to replace Pedro as the ace of the staff.
I actually was pissed when they were originally planning to put him back in the rotation for 07.
Hated both of those.
There's still no point in trading away the farm for one guy. What happens if Santana gets injured? Santana could end up being injured like Pavano was for the past couple of years, and then on top of paying him $150 million, you've just traded away 3-4 of your best young players.
We already have Beckett. I fully believe that Matsuzaka is going to do much better this year after having a year to adjust to MLB. They could end up being the best 1-2 punch in the league. Lester is finally going to have a full off-season, spring training, etc and he should be a good #3. Then you have Wake, Schill, and Buchholz for the remaining 2 spots. (There was even talk back after the Sox re-signed Schilling of them using a hybrid six-man rotation at some points in the season to give guys like Schilling, Wakefield, and Buchholz (who may not be ready for a full season until 2009) extra rest in between starts.
2007:
Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Wakefield, Julian Tavarez., Lester.
How many of those are home grown farm talent?
One. And that player has 144.3 career IP over 2 seasons worth of experience and has a medical history that includes cancer.
Granted Papelbon was important, but I'm talking SP here.
2004:
Schilling, Pedro, Wakefield, Lowe, Arroyo
Care to guess how many of those are home grown talent?
Zero
Point is?
The farm system wasn't how the 2004 championship team was built, and it wasn't how the 2007 championship team was built.
Why Sox fans would suddenly embrace their farm system is beyond me because it has zero to do with their SP success.
Probably because Lester and Ellsbury are fan favorites more than anything else.
Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Wakefield, Julian Tavarez., Lester.
How many of those are home grown farm talent?
One. And that player has 144.3 career IP over 2 seasons worth of experience and has a medical history that includes cancer.
Granted Papelbon was important, but I'm talking SP here.
2004:
Schilling, Pedro, Wakefield, Lowe, Arroyo
Care to guess how many of those are home grown talent?
Zero
Point is?
The farm system wasn't how the 2004 championship team was built, and it wasn't how the 2007 championship team was built.
Why Sox fans would suddenly embrace their farm system is beyond me because it has zero to do with their SP success.
Probably because Lester and Ellsbury are fan favorites more than anything else.
NEW YORK -- The New York Mets have reached agreement on a contract extension with Johan Santana completing the trade for the pitcher with the Minnesota Twins from earlier in the week. Terms of the deal have not been announced.
The two sides were given a 5 p.m. Eastern deadline to complete a deal after the Mets engineered the trade that involved sending four prospects to the Twins. But more time was needed to to work out the details and baseball officials granted an extension.
Said the Mets in a statement Friday evening: "Negotiations have been completed and the player will take a physical."
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3226412
The two sides were given a 5 p.m. Eastern deadline to complete a deal after the Mets engineered the trade that involved sending four prospects to the Twins. But more time was needed to to work out the details and baseball officials granted an extension.
Said the Mets in a statement Friday evening: "Negotiations have been completed and the player will take a physical."
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3226412
Gotta hand it to the mets...they got it done.
They just went from crying in their milk over their september collapse to the best team in the NL.
They just went from crying in their milk over their september collapse to the best team in the NL.
no no, he'll have a career ending arm injury by May and never pitch again.
Everyone knows that!
the mets are not going to get to the world series just because of this one dopey move. they still have gaps to fill. and trust me, the mets have made bad deals before for damaged goods. i'll see if this is such a good deal in july.
True.
False.
Starting pitchers aren't the only players on the team.
The Sox wouldn't have won in 2007 without Youk, Pedroia, Papelbon, Lester, Ellsbury, etc.
True! I'm impressed.
Even if true, I'm not sure "best team in the NL" (at least on paper) is much to get excited about, is it?
On a slightly more serious note, how many more netwins do you think Santana realistically provides? I see the "2-3" in your post, which strikes me as low--I'd think he'd be worth more than that--like 5 or 6.
True, the best team in the NL is like 4th best in the majors. Still behind the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, ect...
I don't know how many wins Santana can get on his own. The Mets still need to score runs.
In 2007, the Mets were 10th in the majors in runs scored.
4th in the NL.
I think Santana is a realistic lock for 15 wins and could easily win 18-20.
They lost Glavine who won 13 last year, otherwise their rotation is basically the same.
So a net increase of 5-7 wins is reasonable assuming everything else remained constant.
It won't of course, but all we can do is try to make educated guesses.
4th in the NL.
I think Santana is a realistic lock for 15 wins and could easily win 18-20.
They lost Glavine who won 13 last year, otherwise their rotation is basically the same.
So a net increase of 5-7 wins is reasonable assuming everything else remained constant.
It won't of course, but all we can do is try to make educated guesses.