More on Flash Based iPods?

[MacPhreak]

The iPod mini is nothing more than a flash player. The storage in it is a 4 gig compact flash card. Why do you think they were flying off the shelves? Photographers were buying it because that same card that is in there cost like $400 at the time by itself. If they bought the iPod mini it saved them $200.

I remember reading a story written by a fellow who had bought a mini for the drive, dissected it, and then couldn't get anything other than the mini to recognize the card.

Found it:
http://www.ipodlounge.com/articles_more.php?id=3059_0_8_0_C
"I was rather surprised to discover that the drive is actually a CF card! I tried to mount it in my Lexar FireWire CF Card Reader but with no luck. My Canon Digital Rebel didn't recognize it either."

 

[pgwalsh]

It's curious that Apple's not rushing this out the door for Christmas, since there's going to be a lot of first-time purchasers in the market. This Christmas is going to be huge for market share as more and more people are falling on either Apple side or the everyone-else side of the player market.

Either Apple couldn't get the flash player to market or they're sufficeintly satisfied with iPod's traction in the market to go with what they've got.

I agree with the latter. This christmas it should be about the mini and the mini apple stores. Next year it'll be about the flash based iPods. Just my guess.

 

[ccrandall77]

I'm buying one eventhough I have a 40GB iPod

Everyday I bring to work a Nokia 6620, Sharp Zaurus SL-C760, my work issued pager, and my big 4G 40GB iPod (soon to be upgraded to a 60GB iPod Photo). That's a lot of crap to strap to my belt and stuff in my pockets. So, I've been stealing the mini I bought my girlfriend and it's been working out great. And, since it's more durable and smaller than my 40GB iPod, it's great to take to the gym.

However, I don't really need a full 4GB iPod and I really don't want to spend another $249 for a second iPod. A 512MB-1GB mini in the $100-$150 would be perfect. Hopefully it'll be out before Xmas since my girlfriend says she's buying me a mini and I'd rather she save the $100-$150.

A flash-based mini, though, would definitely need to keep the same formfactor of the current mini. Any smaller and it just wouldn't be the same experience.

The problem I see, though, is that a 1GB iPod might kill the market for their already successful 4GB iPod mini market. I think so many people who are buying the mini buy it because it's small, and more affordable than the larger models. A good share of those people and people like me will have no need for an a big-mini.

So, unless they upgrade the larger mini (like a color screen?, FM radio?) or come out with a far less functional flash device, I'm skeptical that this iPod is going to be released.

 

[corywoolf]

It's curious that Apple's not rushing this out the door for Christmas, since there's going to be a lot of first-time purchasers in the market. This Christmas is going to be huge for market share as more and more people are falling on either Apple side or the everyone-else side of the player market.

Either Apple couldn't get the flash player to market or they're sufficeintly satisfied with iPod's traction in the market to go with what they've got.

apple doesn't rush things out the door, that would be microsoft

they hardly ever release their products at the expected times anyways. i wish they'd do more giveaways though, i liked the pepsi giveaway. although it didnt help them much... my bet is late summer for the flash ipod.

 

[frozenstar]

I don't know if this has already been said, but Milunovich, the Meryll Lynch analyst quoted as having been given the impression that we'll see flash-based iPods soon, is the same analyst who, the day before the iPod Photo was released said Apple won't release an iPod Photo until the first quarter of 2005. So I don't know how this got to be a Page 1 story. This guy is 90% speculation. I don't think he does much research.

Arn, care to comment?

 

[corywoolf]

Flash based ipods? Never.

But think of this:
The photo ipod lacks a way to download pictures (I know there's the slow Belkin' way) directly from a camera or any memorycard. I think you all can fill in the rest.

theres a new belkin photo transfer that is much better!!!

 

[alfismoney]

it'll happen

these things would sell at any price and apple knows it. just think, an ipod you could drop while you were working out and not ruin the hard drive? a 1gb drive was already voted to be the 'ideal' size in consumer surveys which could be a good indication of the size of the chips. If we can buy 512 chips for $16.99 off the internet i'm sure apple can get a 1gb chip for a reasonable enough price to stick them in a $149 machine. as for form factor, apple seems to enjoy skinny devices with large faces, meaning there's no reason why we'd lose the nice ipod interface. who thinks they'll release something the size of a credit card and about 5mm thick? make the media hot-swappable and i'll pay $199 for it. of course, knowing apple's terrible sense of timing it'll be in january, 5 minutes before they pull the lid off of a big computer release at the expo...

 

[thatwendigo]

Kingston 2GB CP USB2.0 Flash drive - $225.
Kingston 1GB CP USB2.0 Flash drive - $135
Kingston 512MB CP USB2.0 flash drive - $75

Need I say more?

 

[Tontoa4]

iPod micro or whatever

Apple will not go below $149 and they will not go below 1gb.

I can see a flash-based iPod soon with a $149 pricetag, with a 2gb capacity. All of you that believe Apple won't make any money... you're dead wrong. My guess is the iPod line will be as follows:

1 or 2(more likely) GB iPod Flash - 149 (Rule of thumb - take market selling price for a similar card, divide it by 4 and you've got Apple's cost.)

5GB iPod mini - 249 (Seagate is manufacturing these 5GB microdrives)
20GB 4g - 299
40GB 4g - 399
Photo 40 - 499
Photo 60 - 599

I'll make a bet with anyone that challenges me.

 

[Yvan256]

Kingston 2GB CP USB2.0 Flash drive - $225.
Kingston 1GB CP USB2.0 Flash drive - $135
Kingston 512MB CP USB2.0 flash drive - $75

Need I say more?

First of all, you choose the most expensive ones on purpose:
Lexar Media JumpDrive Pro 2.0 512MB Portable USB Drive - $58
Lexar Media JumpDrive Pro 2.0 1GB 80X Portable USB Drive - $95
(didn't find a 2GB from Lexar on that website, but you get the point)


Second, USB flash drives are more expensive than other formats:
Sandisk 2GB Compact Flash Card - $132
Dane-Elec 1GB CompactFlash Card - $69
Sandisk 512MB Compact Flash Card - $42

Please note that I was able to cut your prices nearly in half on the same website you quoted.


And third, those are *consumer* prices. Commercial prices are much, much lower (since they buy in 100,000+ quantities). I'd be really surprised if Apple paid more than $40 for a 1GB CompactFlash card. Let's say the "shell+internals" of the iPod mini cost around $50, Apple could pull it off at $129 for a 1GB flash iPod mini. They would literally destroy the competition.


Need I say more?

A 1GB Flash iPod mini is possible for $149 US or even lower. It's certainly not the price of the storage media that's stopping Apple (or else their 4GB iPod mini would sell for $349 US, not $249 US)

 

[iMeowbot]

Commercial prices are much, much lower (since they buy in 100,000+ quantities).

Yes, it's worth remembering that each new iPod model has sold for less than the retail price of the hard drives inside them!

 

[aswitcher]

Yes, it's worth remembering that each new iPod model has sold for less than the retail price of the hard drives inside them!

Yeah, this is very true.

I think if they do a flash then $99 US would be the sweet point - less than $200 AUD. I guess $149 US / $200-220 AUD would work but then I feel the iPod mini is pretty close (but then the mini is pretty close the the 20 gig).

 

[blogo]

What about putting 3 2GB memorymodules in one iPod and sell it for 249$ completly replacing the old mini?

 

[MacPhreak]

What about putting 3 2GB memorymodules in one iPod and sell it for 249$ completly replacing the old mini?

I would think that would increase the size to somewhere between the mini & white iPod. The drive in the mini is the same size as a CF card, and it's already cramped in there...

 

[coldspot]

I prefer to buy a CD-RW with 700 MB of space and put my stuff into it. Just $1
I'd never buy an iPod 1 or 2 Gig for 149 dollars.

 

[Poff]

Yes, it's worth remembering that each new iPod model has sold for less than the retail price of the hard drives inside them!

People talk about this all of the time, but with flash it is a whole other reality. To get an idea of what prices Apple would have to charge for a flash-player, you'll have to look at other flash-players, just as you can look at other harddrive-players and find an approximate price of the same capacity iPod. This is currently $200 for 1GB, but it will hopefully be $150 for 1GB in Q1 2005.

 

[Poff]

I prefer to buy a CD-RW with 700 MB of space and put my stuff into it. Just $1
I'd never buy an iPod 1 or 2 Gig for 149 dollars.

If size doesn't matter to you, then go ahead. Nothing is better!

 

[coldspot]

An "iPod Micro" with 1 GB of space for $99 would be interesting...

 

[Doctor Q]

When we talk about the low-end market, we should also keep in mind that some consumers would settle for lesser sound quality, so a smaller capacity iPod could be set to use more highly compressed music by default, giving it a higher "number of songs" for marketing purposes, even thought the tradeoff (capacity vs. quality) remains the same.

 

[DavidLeblond]

I prefer to buy a CD-RW with 700 MB of space and put my stuff into it. Just $1
I'd never buy an iPod 1 or 2 Gig for 149 dollars.

Yeah but if you want to take it with you, you can't listen to your purchased songs.

Now what if Apple made a portable CD player that read the encrypted songs...

 

[dejo]

An "iPod Micro" with 1 GB of space for $99 would be interesting...

... but highly, HIGHLY improbable. With many other flash-based players of 512 MB selling for around $200, what would possess Apple to do something like this? Nothing.

 

[Poff]

When we talk about the low-end market, we should also keep in mind that some consumers would settle for lesser sound quality, so a smaller capacity iPod could be set to use more highly compressed music by default, giving it a higher "number of songs" for marketing purposes, even thought the tradeoff (capacity vs. quality) remains the same.

Steve has stated his feelings towards these kinds of "marketing purposes" before.. Of course, consistency is not exactly what he is famous for..

 

[albinogoldfish]

In predicting future Ipod releases the two most important things to think about are:

1) Apple's existing margins on the Ipod and Ipod Mini
2) iTunes market share

Apple gets around 30% margin on what it sells. That means it makes about $100 per iPod and $75 per mini. Any flash player would have to be priced to get a margin of at least 30%. I think that if Apple can make a 1GB flash player for around $100 dollars they would price it around $170-$190. I think that is very possible. (Spot market for 1Gb flash is ~$10, http://www.aice.com.tw/price.asp)


Apple probably recognizes that its dominance in music download service locks in Ipod customers and vice versa. Therefore, if they see market share drop on either side they might take the hit on margins to retain market share. However, as iPods are selling faster than the Soxs beat the Cardinals, I would not hold my breath.

 

[Yvan256]

I prefer to buy a CD-RW with 700 MB of space and put my stuff into it. Just $1
I'd never buy an iPod 1 or 2 Gig for 149 dollars.

Well, if your primary consideration is the price, your MP3 CD player + one CD-RW combo is extremely hard to beat (especially if you carry many CD-RWs around to have more music).

But that CD-RW takes longer to write than Flash and the size of the MP3 CD player is not even nowhere near a regular iPod, which is much smaller. And the iPod mini is way smaller than the regular iPod. Now, add another CD (because even at only 1GB, the iPod mini/flash would require you to compare with two CDs for your setup) and the resulting size is even worst.

I've gone through MP3 Flash 32MB, CD-MP3, iPod 3rd gen. 10GB, and I'm telling you I'd rather go back to Flash/32MB (even encoding songs at 48kbps especially for it) than CD-MP3 (at 128kbps), because the flash player is just so much easier to carry around, and updating songs is extremely fast.

A CD player is just too bulky once you're used to small flash players and iPods.

 

[Yvan256]

People talk about this all of the time, but with flash it is a whole other reality. To get an idea of what prices Apple would have to charge for a flash-player, you'll have to look at other flash-players, just as you can look at other harddrive-players and find an approximate price of the same capacity iPod. This is currently $200 for 1GB, but it will hopefully be $150 for 1GB in Q1 2005.

Here we go again... Just go read the prices I quoted earlier in this thread.

If we could really "look at other harddrive-players and find an approximate price of the same capacity iPod", the iPod would either have a lower price or a bigger hard disk *and* a higher capacity battery.

Just because someone sells his 1GB flash player for $200 doesn't mean Apple can't come up with a 1GB flash player for $149 or even less.