But once you turn off 3G, guess what? You now have the original iPhone with 2.0 software.
Yes, basically. But I think most of the iPhone sales will be from newcomers for sure. I will be getting my first iPhone on July 11 because of the fact that I am no longer in a Verizon contract and it is cheaper.* Like you said, many people who have the v1 iPhone really have no reason to upgrade besides 3g.