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MWSF: More Mini iPod Confirmation and Detail?
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smaller doesn't have to change the user interface at all - smaller could simply mean thinner and lighter.
As for price, I'd expect something like
2G - $149
4G - $199
If they can pull of $99, they better be ready to produce millions of these. Apple has to realize that if they can hit the GameBoy Advance SP price range that they can sell these things like crazy without putting a significant dent in the existing iPod market. 2 or 4 gigs isn't enough for my library, but is enough for my kids. Also, it'll bring a ton more buyers to the iTunes Music Store. Despite what Apple says, I believe they expect the iTunes Music Store to become a significant profit generator over time.
As for price, I'd expect something like
2G - $149
4G - $199
If they can pull of $99, they better be ready to produce millions of these. Apple has to realize that if they can hit the GameBoy Advance SP price range that they can sell these things like crazy without putting a significant dent in the existing iPod market. 2 or 4 gigs isn't enough for my library, but is enough for my kids. Also, it'll bring a ton more buyers to the iTunes Music Store. Despite what Apple says, I believe they expect the iTunes Music Store to become a significant profit generator over time.
Re: This is about the music system
It worked ok with the Creative Muvo NX I plugged in a while back. There's support for quite a few non-iPod devices already.
It worked ok with the Creative Muvo NX I plugged in a while back. There's support for quite a few non-iPod devices already.
I have mixed feelings regarding the color aspect of these new iPods. In general, I like the idea of adding color to them, if done properly (no flower power iPods please!), but I'm not sure what the best way to go about it is. If Apple makes the iPods have a solid color, no faceplates, etc., then they might run into the old iMac problem, whereby certain colors just didn't sell, and there was high demand for certain colors, leaving people disappointed when stores ran out of certain colors.
But on the other hand, Apple could sell faceplates, so that buyers could essentially have any color they want. The problem wiht this though, is Apple would suffer the same fate as Nokia. Nokia created the whole faceplate phenomenon for their phones, and then subsequently lost control of their product as third parties came in and saturated the market with all sorts of cheezy faceplates. Such actions would take control of the iPod's appearance away from Apple and could be very detrimental.
So, I guess the only solution I see is color-changing plastic! Program the iPod's casing to change color as the user wants, and then everything will be good. And then how many people would want one of those?
But on the other hand, Apple could sell faceplates, so that buyers could essentially have any color they want. The problem wiht this though, is Apple would suffer the same fate as Nokia. Nokia created the whole faceplate phenomenon for their phones, and then subsequently lost control of their product as third parties came in and saturated the market with all sorts of cheezy faceplates. Such actions would take control of the iPod's appearance away from Apple and could be very detrimental.
So, I guess the only solution I see is color-changing plastic! Program the iPod's casing to change color as the user wants, and then everything will be good. And then how many people would want one of those?
and everybody knows, that if one kid has a new toy the other ones also want a new toy! and not all the people have only one kid at home...
Do you guys really think Apple would take a step backward and use the Flash cards? It is years old technology and I seriously doubt they would use it.
And I for sure won't touch one that didn't have built in 2-4 GB capacity. And preferably it would be HD. Otherwise, I'll just get a a regular one. I guess I wouldn't be the market they are looking for.
I want the same technology they are using now, but cheaper and no need for such high capacity.
fucanay
BTW: Long time lurker - first time poster.
And I for sure won't touch one that didn't have built in 2-4 GB capacity. And preferably it would be HD. Otherwise, I'll just get a a regular one. I guess I wouldn't be the market they are looking for.
I want the same technology they are using now, but cheaper and no need for such high capacity.
fucanay
BTW: Long time lurker - first time poster.
what is apple thinking? the need to upgrade the xserve line asap. how can they sleep at night knowing that they are selling severs with antiquated chips in them?
Re: Re: How about... yes?
I presume you're speaking for the US.
15" were almost impossible to get hold of for around 2 months after relase and I've still not seen one in a UK shop. 12" are only just at levels you'd expect and getting anything other than the base model is difficult.
I presume you're speaking for the US.
15" were almost impossible to get hold of for around 2 months after relase and I've still not seen one in a UK shop. 12" are only just at levels you'd expect and getting anything other than the base model is difficult.
I have a 1GB CF card for my HP Jornada Pocket PC. (Real CF not the MicroDrive of which I have the first gen 340MB drive.) I store a few movies and a couple dozen MP3's on it. I got it earlier this year have had zero problems with it in any way. I think horror stories are few and far between its just the ones that go horribly, horribly wrong are the ones that get the attention. CF is a godsend. Its way more ruggedized then any hard drive and I can throw it in my shirt pocket as is without any fears of damaging it. When not used as a storage medium for my Pocket PC I use it to transport files and documents to and from work. My entire My Documents directory is stored on this card taking it home to work and back again is way easier then lugging a laptop with me.
At this point, IMHO, the tech is there. Its the price point that is the killer. Looking online the cheapest you can find is $200. The price point is still to high and the amount of storage space is still to low.
I think this is going to be excellent for Apple. These smaller capacity iPods will apeal to a whole new market segment - those not having/wanting a lot of music, and who are in the market for a cheaper MP3 player. Add in some colors and these little guys will be quite the hot item!
The timing couldn't be better either. Apple sells out of the normal iPods for Christmas, and now in the New Year, BAM, new iPods are released, so they can sell even more! It would have been folly to release these before Christmas, as the current iPods sold well enough on their own!
This makes me even more excited about MWSF!
The timing couldn't be better either. Apple sells out of the normal iPods for Christmas, and now in the New Year, BAM, new iPods are released, so they can sell even more! It would have been folly to release these before Christmas, as the current iPods sold well enough on their own!
This makes me even more excited about MWSF!
Nope, the economics simply isn't there. It's open knowledge at this point but record companies take 2/3 off the $.99 right off the bat. That leaves Apple with $.33 to pay for the bandwidth, servers, processing of AAC files and artwork, development and maintenance of the site, and marketing. Apple hopes to move 100 mil songs this year. At $.05 a song, that nets them 5 mil in profits. Big whoop di doo.
Just a guess but the iPods prolly have about 35-40% margins. At 35%, one million ipods will net $140 mil for Apple. Cha Ching. Apple needs to move 2.8 billion songs to approach those profit levels.
Re: Re: This is about the music system
iTunes application support is there for darn near every mp3 player made. What's lacking is support for music downloaded from the iTunes Music Store. Currently, only the iPod supports the DRM that the iTMS uses.
iTunes application support is there for darn near every mp3 player made. What's lacking is support for music downloaded from the iTunes Music Store. Currently, only the iPod supports the DRM that the iTMS uses.
For a dose of reality the 2GB and 4GB 1" drives are expensive. Toshiba makes them in limited quantities. The current drive is 1.8" and only in the next couple of months will production ramp up to 600,000 1.8" drives / month. So, don't expect a 2-4GB iPod any time soon. The las music show had Apple approaching 40% of the MP3 players shipped, the rest were mainly cheap flash players.
Well, there is not one flash player that I know of that plays Fairplay DRM tunes. That is a mighty big whole for the 60% of the other market. A 128-256MB Flash iPod player would allow Apple to seal up the MP3 player market, wthout hurting HD iPod sales. They are two completely different markets and Apple can keep them separate on size, functions and price. (Whereas 2-4GB gets awfully close to being enough to hurt the high-end iPod line.)
So, for the reasons listed above, Apple will release a Flash based iPod with up to 256MB that can play iTunes tracks. Apple's distribution channel for iPods is huge and they will sell into this huge channel. Now instead of paying $129 for a Creative Muvo, I would buy a flash iPod. My iTunes tracks will play on my flash player as well as my iPod. In the future, people who buy the flash will want to buy an iPod with their music collection growing.
Retail stores will only carry so many lines on their shelves, and Apple can lock up the market as well.
Well, there is not one flash player that I know of that plays Fairplay DRM tunes. That is a mighty big whole for the 60% of the other market. A 128-256MB Flash iPod player would allow Apple to seal up the MP3 player market, wthout hurting HD iPod sales. They are two completely different markets and Apple can keep them separate on size, functions and price. (Whereas 2-4GB gets awfully close to being enough to hurt the high-end iPod line.)
So, for the reasons listed above, Apple will release a Flash based iPod with up to 256MB that can play iTunes tracks. Apple's distribution channel for iPods is huge and they will sell into this huge channel. Now instead of paying $129 for a Creative Muvo, I would buy a flash iPod. My iTunes tracks will play on my flash player as well as my iPod. In the future, people who buy the flash will want to buy an iPod with their music collection growing.
Retail stores will only carry so many lines on their shelves, and Apple can lock up the market as well.
1" 1.5 gig drives for < $100 earlier this year
http://bizns.nikkeibp.co.jp/cgi-bin/asia/frame-asia.pl?NSH_KIJIID=237219&NSH_CHTML=asiabiztech.html
boom
http://bizns.nikkeibp.co.jp/cgi-bin/asia/frame-asia.pl?NSH_KIJIID=237219&NSH_CHTML=asiabiztech.html
boom
more on the cornice 1" hard drive
"A reduction in components cuts costs. The 1.5-inch GB drive, which has been in volume manufacturing since mid-April, sells for $65 in quantities of 10,000. The company is aiming for $50, Magenis said. By contrast, existing standard 1-inch Microdrives from IBM sell for $219 at retail or more, while 1GB flash cards go for around $200."
that's a typo in the article though, it's a 1" 1.5 GB drive
source: http://news.com.com/2100-1041-1012235.html
"A reduction in components cuts costs. The 1.5-inch GB drive, which has been in volume manufacturing since mid-April, sells for $65 in quantities of 10,000. The company is aiming for $50, Magenis said. By contrast, existing standard 1-inch Microdrives from IBM sell for $219 at retail or more, while 1GB flash cards go for around $200."
that's a typo in the article though, it's a 1" 1.5 GB drive
source: http://news.com.com/2100-1041-1012235.html
While I'm not too sure about your pricing of the 1" HDD drives (Apple could be striking an exclusive deal that no one is anticipating, like they did with the original 1.8" drives), I agree that there is definitely a market for an Apple-branded, flash-based MP3 player. If Apple indeed sold a $100 miniPod with a removable flash slot, they would OWN the digital music market. They just need to make sure it's as slick and user-friendly as the current iPod-iTunes experience. Make it all USB2.0 standard.
Re: Possible Pricing
Look at CF prices. 1GB at Crucial is $260! OF course, Apple could buy flash cheaper than retail, but they still have to add the electronics and the case! Even if they decide to have a loss leader model, I think that'd have to be a huge loss to get to $99 with a flash player.
Looking at a hard drive possibility, I found a story of a startup with a 1.5GB 1" hard drive that is said could sell for as little as $70. If that were a retail price, then $99 for a whole player with a very small profit margin as a gateway device to the music store seems possible.
Using the current pricing structure without thought about part costs as a basis for pricing:
10GB $299 = $30.0/GB
20GB $399 = $20.0/GB
40GB $499 = $12.5/GB
Extrapolating this yields $40/GB for a 5GB player. So, say a 4GB player should be about $150-$160. A 2GB player would be about $100.
Looking at current prices another way gives a formula of halve the capacity and lower the price by $100. Thus, 5GB should be $199 and 2.5GB at $99.
There's a notion of a $99 MiniPod achieved by bring your own flash card. Let's see, I pay $99 for the MiniPod, then lay out $50 for 128MB to $260 for 1GB? Hell, for less than $260+$99, just get a 10GB unit.
The other idea of a BYOF model is that since I have a digital camera, I have all the CF cards lying around. Well, arent' I using them for my camera? Tying them up with music on them makes them useless for the camera, and tying them up with photos makes them useless for music. I just have two CF cards for my camera, and keep one empty, but not to use for music, but to have handy when the other fills up. And besides, not all camera are CF. For this theory to work with enough people, the MiniPod would have to be one of those 6-in-1 flash readers as well. Then, you could stuff in a 256MB CF, Memory Stick, SD, Smart Media and XD cards all at once to get 1.25GB! It'd only cost you how much?
Look at CF prices. 1GB at Crucial is $260! OF course, Apple could buy flash cheaper than retail, but they still have to add the electronics and the case! Even if they decide to have a loss leader model, I think that'd have to be a huge loss to get to $99 with a flash player.
Looking at a hard drive possibility, I found a story of a startup with a 1.5GB 1" hard drive that is said could sell for as little as $70. If that were a retail price, then $99 for a whole player with a very small profit margin as a gateway device to the music store seems possible.
Using the current pricing structure without thought about part costs as a basis for pricing:
10GB $299 = $30.0/GB
20GB $399 = $20.0/GB
40GB $499 = $12.5/GB
Extrapolating this yields $40/GB for a 5GB player. So, say a 4GB player should be about $150-$160. A 2GB player would be about $100.
Looking at current prices another way gives a formula of halve the capacity and lower the price by $100. Thus, 5GB should be $199 and 2.5GB at $99.
There's a notion of a $99 MiniPod achieved by bring your own flash card. Let's see, I pay $99 for the MiniPod, then lay out $50 for 128MB to $260 for 1GB? Hell, for less than $260+$99, just get a 10GB unit.
The other idea of a BYOF model is that since I have a digital camera, I have all the CF cards lying around. Well, arent' I using them for my camera? Tying them up with music on them makes them useless for the camera, and tying them up with photos makes them useless for music. I just have two CF cards for my camera, and keep one empty, but not to use for music, but to have handy when the other fills up. And besides, not all camera are CF. For this theory to work with enough people, the MiniPod would have to be one of those 6-in-1 flash readers as well. Then, you could stuff in a 256MB CF, Memory Stick, SD, Smart Media and XD cards all at once to get 1.25GB! It'd only cost you how much?
I know how they are going to do it!
I know how they are going to make a small capacity iPod that cost less then the current models. Earlier this year I read an article about a company that designed a small hard drive about the size of a quarter that was relatively cheep, they did this by moving all the hard drive controllers off the drive it self. The HD is basically soldered to the main board and the HD controllers job is done pretty much by a chip also soldered to the main board. What makes the IBM micro drive so expensive is IBM must fit a small HD and its controllers onto a CF card. Make things small you make it expensive. In terms of Flash based no way a 2gb flash based MP3 player would cost more than the current 10GB.
* I will try to find the article and post it here.
I know how they are going to make a small capacity iPod that cost less then the current models. Earlier this year I read an article about a company that designed a small hard drive about the size of a quarter that was relatively cheep, they did this by moving all the hard drive controllers off the drive it self. The HD is basically soldered to the main board and the HD controllers job is done pretty much by a chip also soldered to the main board. What makes the IBM micro drive so expensive is IBM must fit a small HD and its controllers onto a CF card. Make things small you make it expensive. In terms of Flash based no way a 2gb flash based MP3 player would cost more than the current 10GB.
* I will try to find the article and post it here.