I am wondering if articles in the last few days on the "end of the Mac Pro" actually increase the likelihood of a "mid-desktop" such as I describe.
In so far as the rise in FUD levels cause even more folks to abandon Mac towers and run to the risk adverse haven of Windows PC land, no. Apple then sees the numbers drop off even faster in their weekly unit sales review meeting. Actually decreases the likelihood. If the Mac Pro gets killed it is even more doubtful that Apple will release another box that carves into the iMac zone. If dropped Mac Pro due to lack in growth in units why introduce another model that will inhibit grown in the Mac products have left over (iMac) ????? That just puts
another product on probation status.
In so far as Apple decides that they have to move closer to the $2,000 price point to boost sales. Perhaps. (I'll loop back to this below )
I'd be OK with such as a development even if power users would most decidedly not.
Well another move Apple could make is actually a price increase. You probably wouldn't like it but the power user with money would grugingly take it.
Apple dumps the single package model altogether. They tack another $200 (or so ) onto the dual package models can continue to sell less units at higher prices. Some of the complexity is going to drop out because only have to make one daughter card instead of two. They could also come out with the box which offered four 16x slots which power users would buy into (value offsetting price increase somewhat. )
All the single package folks who have to move to iMac or out ( just as if the whole Mac Pro line up disappeared. )
I suspect you wouldn't be happy. Classically, this is exactly what happens as high prices machines go into cash cow mode. Fewer customers pay higher prices. Over time that bleeds off more customers so the even fewer customers pay even higher prices. Apple can play that game for 3-4 years until the iMac is some crazy 16 core 128GB monster with 100Gb TB connectors which satisfies 98% of most needs.
What I am most curious about is why, with $60B in the cash, Apple needs to be so persnickety about the profitability in the Mac Pro line.
It is not the cash horde it is the stock price. No growth means the price doesn't go up. If the price doesn't go up then the executives (i.e., the people making the decisions) and stockholders don't get more weathly. Additionally, as long as the stock price keeps rising the stockholders will let the exec keep control of that huge pile of money. Once the stock flattens out they are going to demand that money be handed over. It will disappear from the coffers.
So the primariy issue is how to invest the 60B into projects that show the highest return on investment. Not the projects which will product
flat growth (i.e., exchange iMac owners for mid-tower-Mac owners) .
I find it hard to believe that Apple loses much, if anything in this market segment.
It has nothing to do with loss. The article driving the current set of rumors said " the Mac Pro is no longer a particularly profitable operation for Apple " . That is not about loss. That is about not high enough profits.
Even if the profit amount of Mac Pro is high, if the number of units shrinks then the profit generated can actually go down.
$500/unit and 100,000 units ==> $50M
$500/unit and 60,000 units ==> $30M
That is still in the black, but it is a
negative 40% growth rate. If every other Mac product is showing a 10-12% growth rate...... do you see the problem???
If reassigning those Mac Pro engineers and designers can make the average growth among the other positively trending Mac products increase to 15-20% growth rate then it is a no-brainer.
The can triage the bleed if boost to $700/unit which would be $42M and only a -16% drop off.
Seems to me that some of this could be redirected to building good will with a segment of the market that is usually quite vocal (developers and pro users). Same goes for "Pro" apps.
Money (paying for systems) talks and ..... walks.
Clearly, no one is going to buy a sightly faster Mac Mini to replace a Mac Pro.
Clearly false. Some people are. That why the Mac Pro unit numbers are very likely not growing. Also clearly false because the last 60 years of computer history says otherwise. The smaller computers always "eat" into the bigger computer in additional to expanding the market.
This isn't about whether Apple can move
all of the current Mac Pro users to products toward the lower end of the price scale. It is about whether they can move
enough. They don't have to get all to continue growth because the lower price products also create growth by reaching an expanded market. Lower price , higher demand... Econ 101.
So back to what Apple could do with a "mid Tower". Apple could use a "mid Tower" to fill in the $2,000 < x < $2,499 space that the current line-up leaves empty.
So a Mac Pro S , Mac Pro T , and Mac Pro TN . This is similar to how the MBP has three models of different sizes. S "small, short" , T "tower" , and TN "Tower NUMA" .
S model prices around 1,799 , 1,999 , and 2,199 would leave room for
T model priced 2,599, 2,999 and 3,799
TX 3,599 , etc.
Apple could throw the Xeon E3 into the S model if wanted to keep the processor family uniform. To max R&D cost savings though just build the case around a minor modification of the iMac motherboard ( e.g., iMac motherboard with one PCI-e slot attached to one side to minimize board layout changes. ) .
In the latter case, it is what some folks wanted: a headless iMac. Pick your own monitor. Add your own video card. But it is not a really solving Mac Pro level workload problems. By making 95% (or more) of the components the same as the iMacs somewhat neutralizes any cannibalize effects. However, the folks in a "huff" about $1,200 Windows PC models they think are better value are going to still leave. That is no change, which is fine. Those who just wanted a sub $2,000 "headless" box will stay.
Can probably even "reuse" most iMac board if the just set up to take ECC RAM and optional southbridge. (pretty sure what is left of the southbridge is essentially the same. That will even more so be the case when the follow on to Ivy Bridge comes to market.) That gets the volume purchases up on some Mac Pro components which will help that part of the line up last longer.
[Where this model beomes much more problematical is where the board R&D overlap is much smaller than the other mac models. It isn't going to have anywhere near enough volume to justify a separate design team. Piggybacking off the higher volume iMac will help.
Conceptually, could also piggyback off of full sized T/TN board. Just a different daughtercard (like the other two, but a bunch of unused pins) and chopped down to one PCI-e slot (perhaps a bit easier than adding one to the iMac board). ]
So could have:
Mac Pro S
E3 1225 3.1GHz 4GB HD3000 [***] 1TB HDD 2 port Thunderbolt controller (coupled to HD3000 ) open 16x PCI-e slot.
E3 1235 3.2GHz ditto other stuff.
E3 1245 3.3GHz " " "
Mac Pro T
E5 1620 3.6GHz 8GB [****] embedded 1TB HDD AMD 6770 (from iMacs) hooked to dual port TB controller plus a entry video card.
E5 1650 3.2 GHz " " "
E5 1660 3.3 GHz " " "
Mac Pro TX
E5 2620 similar embedded graphics to flush out TB controller Display port needs and completely decoupling the PCI-e socket based card from the issue.
E5 2640
E5 .....
The only quirky thing would be the updates came at different times of the year. The E3 based S would update in Spring when those release and the E5 based T and TX would update in the late Fall. However, that keeps the "no action for six months .... sign of doom and apocalypse" folks happier.
*** yes that is integrated graphics standard. If need more, buy your own video card without the "Apple Tax" attached to it. And yes that will drive the total system costs higher than an iMac: ($70 vid card + $130 monitor) > $1,999. However, Mac Pro line up stretches $200 back into the iMac's $1,000-2,000 zone as much as the iMacs penetrates into the Mac Pros ($2,199 for its i7). Seems fair to me.

The E3 due in April-May has Ivy Bridge with a 50-60% improvement in graphics. There are a fair amount of folks who will settle for that really need something else in that PCI-e slot and don't need fancy 3D graphics. ]
edit
**** 8 memory slots on a SP model would help differentiate it while adding value. ( one package on the daughtercard should allow for some space. They get 8 DIMMs on the DP version with the same surface area. ). Change to daughtercard socket could allow DP version to go 4 x16 electrical on PCI-e lanes while he SP version comes up much shorter.