NBC/Universal is working overtime to make themselves irrelevant, with or without iTunes.
They've already driven me away from three of the four NBC shows I used to always watch. They moved two Law & Order shows to incompatible time slots (one of them going against the Fox Sunday cartoons, and the other going against ER, on a different channel), and have simply ruined the third L&O show (using it as a soapbox for political rhetoric instead of telling a good story.) And their Sci-Fi Channel division is working overtime to cancel or destroy most of the other shows I like to watch.
Given the fact that their lousy programming decisions are rapidly driving me to watching little more than Fox cartoons and Discovery Channel documentaries, I really couldn't care less about their threats to Apple. If they want to go, fine. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
Apple needs to come out with a DVR/Cable card set-up, and ditch the noise.
That would be ideal. Right now, it would take only minor modifications (tuner hardware and some new software) to add PVR functionality to an Apple TV.
A Mac mini, if equipped with a third-party tuner/recorder package already has all the remaining components, thanks to FrontRow's ability to play any video clip on your hard drive.
This is not going to end well. At all. Apple needs to start giving control back to consumers and calling it a day on the studios that can't hack it.
Fortunately, consumers already have control. Apple simply needs to make it more obvious to those who haven't figured it out.
On the music front, there are several DRM-free download solutions (including two that carry major-label material), plus CD ripping, plus audio-capture/radio tuner hardware (for those who want to record broadcasts), plus file sharing (illegal in most countries, but popular nonetheless.)
On the video front, there are multiple PVR solutions, and DVD ripping (illegal in many places, but still popular) in addition to iTunes. So Apple's hardly in control here either.
And, as with audio, there's nothing stopping third parties from selling video on their own. It will be iPod/Apple-TV compatible as long as it is DRM free. And even third-party DRM-wrapped content can be played on a Mac, if they are willing to ship a player (or at least a QuickTime plugin).
Ultimately, however, control will reside with the copyright holders. I predict that if the major studios don't get on the ball, they'll be marginalized just like the record labels are.
Which reminds me of something I heard a few months ago
This year, at
Dragon*Con, Richard Hatch (of Battlestar Galactica fame) made a very interesting observation. It costs about $3M to produce an episode of Galactica (other Sci-Fi shows are similar. Shows without special effects tend to cost less.) A 4-episode DVD, therefore, costs about $12M to produce. If sold at $10 direct to customers (a bit more if sold retail, of course), it would require about 1.2-1.5 million purchases to break even. At its worst, Galactica's ratings have indicated 3-5 million viewers, and at its best, much more.
He mentioned this after observing a phenomenon WRT Galactica. The Nielsen ratings have declined over the first three seasons, but the fan response has been growing exponentially. This is because fans are buying the DVDs, they're making PVR recordings, and they're sharing their recordings with each other - none of which show up in the ratings. Even PVR recordings don't count unless the recording is watched within 24 hours of the broadcast, because the networks choose to look at overnight statistics and not long-term aggregates.
If a show like this is showing Nielsen ratings of 3-5M (which may not be enough to keep a show on the air), then it is likely that there are actually more like 7-10M actual viewers. More than enough to buy enough DVDs to keep a direct-sales show profitable. This is a golden opportunity for a production company to bypass the networks.
I'm not a businessman, but I think this model has merit, and I think we'll see a few production companies try it (at least as an experiment) in the near future. If the networks don't get on the ball by then, they'll be marginalized, just like the record labels are.