Why there hasn't been a new Apple TV yet...
SOFTWARE
* The UI needs a complete update to handle Apps, yes like iOS
BUT
* The UI and the Apps need to be designed, adjusted or tailored to work for a 10 foot interface style and the methods of control worked out
* The App Store for Apple TV needs to contain Apple TV specific apps only to create the best customer experience and I'd wager all this time has been (and continues) to rewrite key apps to be amazing on a 32" or larger screen with a HDTV aspect ratio, properly scalable graphics, and reworked layout.
Look for AT LEAST 50-100 Apple TV 4 10 ft. interface ready apps at launch.
* These apps will definitely include 'channels' as we have now but improved and likely to be more uniform in UI.
* When searching for a show or movie, like the Tivo, will find the content and tell you which service has it for streaming, rental or purchase (maybe Apple will buy CanIStreamIt) and let you pick and play immediately.
* A Live TV App could allow you to see what Live TV options each other app offers to you in one place and to 'flip' live channels. The live content NOT available would be shown as an color muted option with the chance to add service or app from within the Live TV app.
* The Apps could be divided by what you do with those apps:
* See (video content, TV/Movies)
* Hear (Music, audio podcasts, white noise)
* Play (Games)
* Communicate (FB, Twitter, Google+, FaceTime, iMessage,
Instagram, Pinterest)
* Know (weather, sports scores, stocks, Flipboard, Maps)
I believe Apple has also been holding out for more content arrangements and to figure out how to incorporate more Roku/Plex level choices without killing iTunes content sales. Amazon does both content sales AND a Netflix style streaming service. Apple needs to offer a similar service or partner with streaming services.
HARDWARE
Also, to run the next generation TV settop box requires more horsepower.
Responsiveness to user interaction, better buffering, smoother graphics transitions require not skimping on processor, RAM and buffering storage.
A new Apple TV would work well on current iPod Touch hardware with maybe a little more graphics processing thru a separate onboard chip.
One of the biggest frustrations with current settop boxes is the slight delay between selecting options and other interactions when we've been accustomed to instant responses from our smart phones and tablets. Also, an App Store and environment require far more storage than the current AppleTV offers. This won't mean the Apple TV size radically changing...maybe an extra 1-2 inches.
My predictions (with a sprinkle of hopes thrown in) for the Apple TV 4.
CONTENT/MONETIZATION
Maybe a partnership with Aereo to get local programming......
Maybe a partnership with content providers (give them a very small piece of hardware sales as an incentive, ad revenue, customer consumer profiles (MINUS names and addresses, more demographic info and content choices), a measuring tool for ratings measurement.
What do you guys think?