A processor update wouldn't need an event, to be fair - unless they are changing more than just the processor, this would happen under the radar, based on past behaviour.
You are totally correct. But the point I'm trying to make (and I think you as well) is that even if they "just" upgraded the processor - there would be outcry in this forum again because they didn't add more ports or make a 14" version (which has no supply chain evidence to back it up at all. The 12" MacBook was rumoured to be in supply chain for almost a year before it came out. There has been 0 evidence of a 14" model).
Many of the people expecting/hoping for an update in these forums, IMO, are hoping for a full V2.0 machine - more ports, better processor, more RAM, etc... and I don't see that happening in the next 3 months. Again, IMHO, but there is a SLIM chance they'll update the processor, but I think you hit the nail on the head here:
Skyline presents an opportunity for them to UPDATE THE MACBOOK FOR 2016; which I doubt will otherwise happen.
Exactly why I don't think there'll be an update. If they update to Skylake in October, there may not be anything for them to update to in the 1st Half of 2016. the 10nm successor to Skylake was supposed to be Cannonlake -
but that's delayed till the 2nd Half of 2017 now. Instead, Intel's supposedly releasing Kaby Lake (just a bump of Skylake) in 2H16... but no specificity on whether any of the Kaby Lake Y-chips will make sense for the MacBook, and that's already presuming Kaby Lake even gets released in enough quantity in time for updates in Fall 2016?
So if Apple updates to Skylake in October, that would leave them with two updates for the rMB in 2015 and the real possibility of Zero updates (as there may not be suitable/released processors for them to update to) in 2016? Seems fishy to me.
The other point I see towards a Q1 2016 update is that laptops are traditionally updated in time for back to school season. The Air has been updated in June/July for a number of years. If there won't be processors other than Skylake until at least Aug/Sept 2016, I couldn't see Apple *not* updating the MacBook before Back to School next year... and if they blow their wad on Skylake in October, there will be nothing for them to update the rMB with in Jun-Aug next year.