Next-Gen Apple Chip Technology on Track to Reach Production in 2025

[picpicmac]

I am kind of amazed to see these words "extremely mediocre upgrade" used for the M2 to M3.

The trolls love to come out when discussing these consumer electronics, and that (repeated from prior post) claim of "mediocre" is just another example.

50 years ago guys would argue over automobiles, brands and engines, etc., as signifiers of their manhood.

Today, it's micro-electronics.

 

[aj_niner]

Wonder whether Apple will release a new M chip every year going forward.

- M1: Nov 2020
- M2: Jun 2022
- M3: Oct 2023
- M4: Oct 2024(?)

The micro architectural & tech node improvements would be derived from iPhone chips released 1.5 month earlier.

 

[aj_niner]

Today, it's micro-electronics.

To compensate for their micro-electronics?

 

[Motorola68000]

We comment on Apple, but generally I suspect we are getting to the technological stage of consumer fatigue where many consumers cannot justify expenditure on the latest implementation on products, especially if the existing product is already doing its job, which leave obsolescence as the pathway for renewals, and first time customers, where that pool must be diminishing rapidly, hence in my opinion Apple concerted effort for the last few years to improve media services such as Apple TV, films, and with its indication its concentrating on gaming, but where it has a dilemma there too with regards RAM and where yes that may introduce obsolescence on existing customers equipment where RAM configurations are simply too low for a good gaming experience and where an increased customer base is essential to persuade games producers to develop for the Mac platform. Expect Apple to replicate Microsoft's acquisition of Activision in it endeavours.

I chose to miss out on large M2 configuration purchases for commercial reasons:
The M1 and in particular the iMac even at 8Gb was a fantastic little machine, and the feedback we've had from customers is probably the best we've ever had on any Mac computer and they are still performing well with a very low failure rate.
M2 purchases would therefore have increased the payback period for no good reason, so we skipped it.

Keeping the M2 base at 8Gb at the time Apple were sending out clear signals of its intention to pursue gaming on the Mac was in our opinion going to cause early obsolescence of the base configurations, so we kept clear of them.

We are now looking to the M3 as its within the upgrade period our business model relies upon, albeit no real incentive to replace the M1 iMacs. We will likely go for some M3 Mini Macs, as we have had a lot of requests for the Mac mini's from both existing customers and potentially new Mac users/new customers.

So we wait on the configuration of the M3 Mac mini as our first bulk purchase since the M1's, but we will not touch them at 8Gb base, and paying even $200 more for 16Gb is out of the question as it raises the price threshold and customer resistance. We need to ensure that our machines will not be obsolete from RAM shortage with the inevitable increased demands of software including games.

With regards 3nm, 2nm ad infinitum, one thing I've not checked upon is the resistance of ever smaller setups to EMP or other potential damage.

I know a test on an old IBM Thinkpad using Tesla coils showed that device to stand up to some rough treatment, but whether that applies to other potential problems, as its not just EMP that has a potential risk for microelectronics.

 

[SpanishAppleNerd]

Add a year for the actual tech node chip will come out.

I can't wait to see how AAPL applies all these new processes!

 

[SpanishAppleNerd]

We comment on Apple, but generally I suspect we are getting to the technological stage of consumer fatigue where many consumers cannot justify expenditure on the latest implementation on products, especially if the existing product is already doing its job, which leave obsolescence as the pathway for renewals, and first time customers, where that pool must be diminishing rapidly, hence in my opinion Apple concerted effort for the last few years to improve media services such as Apple TV, films, and with its indication its concentrating on gaming, but where it has a dilemma there too with regards RAM and where yes that may introduce obsolescence on existing customers equipment where RAM configurations are simply too low for a good gaming experience and where an increased customer base is essential to persuade games producers to develop for the Mac platform. Expect Apple to replicate Microsoft's acquisition of Activision in it endeavours.

I chose to miss out on large M2 configuration purchases for commercial reasons:
The M1 and in particular the iMac even at 8Gb was a fantastic little machine, and the feedback we've had from customers is probably the best we've ever had on any Mac computer and they are still performing well with a very low failure rate.
M2 purchases would therefore have increased the payback period for no good reason, so we skipped it.

Keeping the M2 base at 8Gb at the time Apple were sending out clear signals of its intention to pursue gaming on the Mac was in our opinion going to cause early obsolescence of the base configurations, so we kept clear of them.

We are now looking to the M3 as its within the upgrade period our business model relies upon, albeit no real incentive to replace the M1 iMacs. We will likely go for some M3 Mini Macs, as we have had a lot of requests for the Mac mini's from both existing customers and potentially new Mac users/new customers.

So we wait on the configuration of the M3 Mac mini as our first bulk purchase since the M1's, but we will not touch them at 8Gb base, and paying even $200 more for 16Gb is out of the question as it raises the price threshold and customer resistance. We need to ensure that our machines will not be obsolete from RAM shortage with the inevitable increased demands of software including games.

With regards 3nm, 2nm ad infinitum, one thing I've not checked upon is the resistance of ever smaller setups to EMP or other potential damage.

I know a test on an old IBM Thinkpad using Tesla coils showed that device to stand up to some rough treatment, but whether that applies to other potential problems, as its not just EMP that has a potential risk for microelectronics.

I totally get what you're saying about customer fatigue. I only bought M2 and M3 because I was new to the ecosystem... my next upgrade will be in between 5 to 10 yrs

 

[aj_niner]

I can't wait to see how AAPL applies all these new processes!​

​

Year​	Die shrink​	iPhone chip​	Mac chip​
2018​	7nm​	A12​	-​
2019​	7nm​	A13​	-​
2020​	5nm​	A14​	M1​
2021​	5nm​	A15​	M1​
2022​	5nm​	A16​	M2​
2023​	3nm​	A17​	M3​
​	​	​	​
2024​	3nm​	A18​	M4​
​	​	​	​
2025​	2nm​	A19​	M5​
2026​	2nm​	A20​	M6​
2027​	1.4nm​	A21​	M7​
2028​	1.4nm​	A22​	M8​
2029​	1nm​	A23​	M9​
2030​	1nm​	A24​	M10​
2031​	0.7nm​	A25​	M11​
2032​	0.7nm​	A26​	M12​
2033​	0.5nm​	A27​	M13​
2034​	0.5nm​	A28​	M14​
2035​	0.3nm​	A29​	M15​
2036​	0.3nm​	A30​	M16​
2037​	0.2nm​	A31​	M17​

For anyone who works in tech follow your customary replacement cycle.

For us in non-tech who does browsing, email, messaging, VoIP, video conferencing, word processing, presentation and spreadsheet then you can lengthen it to 2-3 longer than that.

Anyone upgrading every decade will feel tech node changes like say from 2020 M1 to 2030 M10.

Although it is unlikely I'd like Apple to expand their Mac market share from top 20% to top 30% by way introducing a new base model SKU that is 20% cheaper.

Like say a $700 MBA 13" M1. I had to choose between a $720 2023 ThinkPad E16 AMD and $999 MBA.

 

[bodhisattva]

So -
M4 Q4 this year - enhanced 3nm. (Sort of M3S, like the M2 was?)
M5 Q4 2025 with 2nm.
M6 2026 with enhanced 2nm?
M7 2027 with 1.4nm.

Is that about it?

Sigh... I remember my 2013 trash can Mac Pro. I maxed it out (for a small fortune) and it was considered extremely fast and capable for almost a decade (at least for 3D, video, and app development)! Now you are good if you 6 months before the next, new shiny amazing, life changing breakthrough renders your rig second-tier. Wonder when we will get to the 1.0nm Ultra 2 model where we will just start doubling the chip numbers.

 

[bobjonesco]

Once they get below 1nm, processing will become so fast, that it will go back in time and be finished before you even ask for it.

 

[UltimaKilo]

So -
M4 Q4 this year - enhanced 3nm. (Sort of M3S, like the M2 was?)
M5 Q4 2025 with 2nm.
M6 2026 with enhanced 2nm?
M7 2027 with 1.4nm.

Is that about it?

I wouldn't expect an M4 until next year. Might get a higher clocked M3 with some extra cache this year though.

 

[bradman83]

So -
M4 Q4 this year - enhanced 3nm. (Sort of M3S, like the M2 was?)
M5 Q4 2025 with 2nm.
M6 2026 with enhanced 2nm?
M7 2027 with 1.4nm.

Is that about it?

That assumes TSMC can keep their tick-tock cycle going. They stumbled a bit in 2022 getting 3nm off the ground, which is why the A16 used a "4nm" process which was really just a super enhanced 5nm process node.

I do think Apple's ultimate goal is to release a new M chip every year in conjunction with the current A series core design and whatever the most advanced TSMC manufacturing node available for mass production.

 

[deconstruct60]

This is my hunch

The new Mac mini is almost certainly coming

Apple skipped the M2 for the iMac and went straight from M1 to M3. It's possible they may do that again with M3 with respect to some Macs. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the following; Spring 2024 - M2 iPad Air / M3 iPad Pro WWDC 2024 - M4 MBA (13" / 15") Fall 2024 - M4 iMac / base MBP, M4...

forums.macrumors.com

More likely that the iMac 'skipped' the M2 because it is not a strategic product anymore. It skipped into same state that the Mini was in last decade. 2012 -> 2014 -> 2018 -> 2020 . The whole product is moving at a slower pace. Relatively little to do with the SoC inside the product.

Apple goosed the iMac a bit with the 'plain' M3 first because it was a major anniversary year for the iMac. That priority isn't permanent.

Similarly, the M3 Max coming 'early' is probably driven by Intel walking away from a substantial number of N3B wafers in 2023 and TSMC asking Apple to soak them up. The best way to soak up extra wafers you didn't expect to use is with bigger dies ( i.e., M3 Max). It is about 4x bigger than a 'plain' M3 die. Intel isn't going to screw up their chip design every year. That probably isn't going to be a 'regular' thing either. Folks expecting Apple to relatively rapidly kill off the 'Max sized' die every year are likely way , way off in the weeds. That would be a easy way to blow tons of money. ( something Apple doesn't tend to do).

2024 is going to be opposite to 2023 for N3-family wafer demand. Intel is likely going to want more in 2024 than they asked for years ago because they skipped 2023. AMD has ramp. Nvidia has ramp. etc. There is likely not going to be lots of excess capacity. Apple is probably not going to be doing 'early' ramp on anything to soak up extra wafers.

N3E for the M-series doesn't make as much sense when the M-series has way more cache than the A-series and N3E cache sizes backslide all the way back to N5 sizes. N3P isn't as bad and should be in high volume ramp in 2H 2024 (**)


If there are new M-series coming in 2H of 2024 ... why use N3E when there is a newer, better N3P for larger dies? Relatively bigger dies do not need fab processes that product even bigger dies. The 'need' is for smaller.
(the 'plain' Mx could probably reasonably get away with incrementally bigger. As scale up ... it doesn't make sense at all. ). The problem for the 'plain' M4 is that the peak volume shipments for M3 aren't going to happen until Q2-Q3 of 2024. ( recent reports are that MBA was still in R&D this past Fall.

" . In October it was reported that both models had passed engineering verification testing (EVT), an early production testing phase on prototype devices. The M3 chip used in the Airs is expected to have similar CPU and GPU core counts as the ‌M2‌ chip in the current models. ..."

Here Are All the New M3 Apple Macs Expected This Year

Apple in 2023 launched an M3-powered 24-inch iMac, as well as new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models with M3 series chips. But the rest of...

www.macrumors.com

and

Mac Mini isn't on " front burner" priority either.

)




** https://www.anandtech.com/show/1883...n-schedule-n3p-n3x-deliver-five-percent-gains

 

[SpanishAppleNerd]

​

Year​	Die shrink​	iPhone chip​	Mac chip​
2018​	7nm​	A12​	-​
2019​	7nm​	A13​	-​
2020​	5nm​	A14​	M1​
2021​	5nm​	A15​	M1​
2022​	5nm​	A16​	M2​
2023​	3nm​	A17​	M3​
​	​	​	​
2024​	3nm​	A18​	M4​
​	​	​	​
2025​	2nm​	A19​	M5​
2026​	2nm​	A20​	M6​
2027​	1.4nm​	A21​	M7​
2028​	1.4nm​	A22​	M8​
2029​	1nm​	A23​	M9​
2030​	1nm​	A24​	M10​
2031​	0.7nm​	A25​	M11​
2032​	0.7nm​	A26​	M12​
2033​	0.5nm​	A27​	M13​
2034​	0.5nm​	A28​	M14​
2035​	0.3nm​	A29​	M15​
2036​	0.3nm​	A30​	M16​
2037​	0.2nm​	A31​	M17​

For anyone who works in tech follow your customary replacement cycle.

For us in non-tech who does browsing, email, messaging, VoIP, video conferencing, word processing, presentation and spreadsheet then you can lengthen it to 2-3 longer than that.

Anyone upgrading every decade will feel tech node changes like say from 2020 M1 to 2030 M10.

Although it is unlikely I'd like Apple to expand their Mac market share from top 20% to top 30% by way introducing a new base model SKU that is 20% cheaper.

Like say a $700 MBA 13" M1. I had to choose between a $720 2023 ThinkPad E16 AMD and $999 MBA.

Very cool table, thanks a bunch.

 

[aj_niner]

Very cool table, thanks a bunch.

Anytime... take note that the table above is my projected release dates of actual products with those chips.

In previous MR posts on die shrinks they always talk about start of production & not actual release.

Start of production is useless for consumers purposes.

 

[SpanishAppleNerd]

Anytime... take note that the table above is my projected release dates of actual products with those chips.

In previous MR posts on die shrinks they always talk about start of production & not actual release.

Start of production is useless for consumers purposes.

Yeah well, if I had any type of consumer purpose I wouldn't have joined MacRumors forums don't you think? Take a look at my nickname 😜 although the table is very informative. Talk about getting FOMO a decade early lol

 

[Sauces]

I guess that blows away any chance that the extremely mediocre upgrade to M3 (especially on the M3 Pro with its reduced performance core counts) was any sort of stopgap due to rumored low N3E yields. Sigh.

Spoken like someone that read a little on the internet and is now an “expert” 😆

18-20% increase in single core is obscenely good. You are completely wrong on all counts.

 

[lk400]

Still loving my M1 Max MBP - she's a rocket. I used to switch out Macs every year or two, but I think I'm going to keep this one for 3-4 more years, it’s so good at what it does.

May I ask why you would replace every year or two? I still have a 27 inch iMac from 2013 which is somehow still powering along. I actually use it when working from home so it’s in some ways a work machine!

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

I mean it is a possibility, sure. I strongly believe Apple is wanting to get back to a one year cycle when it comes to their chips. I'm not referring to all of their devices just the more popular ones like phones & laptops mainly. Every other tech company does this, & Apple was doing this before 2020. The only reason we have the M-series at basically a 1 1/2 year gap is because of the chip shortage issue & trouble getting stuff shipped overseas.

It is certainly possible. But I don't think the Mac is such a priority, that they will strictly adhere to the 1 year cycle. Sure, macOS comes out annually, but its development piggybags on that of iOS. Just look at the iPad, some of these also runs A SOCs, and they are not released annually.

The room for Mac improvements is small, and I expect Apple want to line it up with other additions, such as fluctuating prices on RAM, SSD, and such, and technological developments (WIFI7, Thunderbolt5, ...), to get the most out of updates for a much smaller crowd.

 

[jonnysods]

May I ask why you would replace every year or two? I still have a 27 inch iMac from 2013 which is somehow still powering along. I actually use it when working from home so it’s in some ways a work machine!

I was always trying to squeeze as much as I could out of the processors but upgrading and using the value of the used unit to offset. I run my own company and need my computer to perform.

 

[Tagbert]

I was always trying to squeeze as much as I could out of the processors but upgrading and using the value of the used unit to offset. I run my own company and need my computer to perform.

That makes sense for a business. Also lots of businesses amortize the cost of a laptop over a 3 year period so many of them will replace on that schedule. Private buyers are less likely to replace their computers so often.

 

[jonnysods]

That makes sense for a business. Also lots of businesses amortize the cost of a laptop over a 3 year period so many of them will replace on that schedule. Private buyers are less likely to replace their computers so often.

Yeah privately I don't do that, we buy a family mac and keep it for 10 years until it pretty much starts beachballing whenever I look at it.