I don't think most people would upgrade their PMPs each year even if the upgrade was bigger. Sure, some people like to have the latest and greatest, but for most, just having a PMP doing what you want - and doing it well is enough. Cost, of course also comes into consideration. It may be hard to justify an upgrade each year, even if one easily can afford it.
Also, I don't think Apple really expects people to upgrade
every year. More likely, they plan for people skipping generations. (e.g. iPhone -> iPhone 3GS). The point beeing that over time, the willingness to upgrade becomes greater.
I'm also skipping 3GS because I have the 3G-version and really can't justify an upgrade at this time.
Apple doesn't expect people to upgrade every year, but that's their goal. In fact, tons of people who had the 3G now have a 3Gs. The bottom line is that if you already OWN an iPod/iPhone you're less likely to purchase another iPod/iPhone than some other person who does NOT currently own an iPod/iPhone. Apple has already achieved most of the latter market, and they need to focus on the former - getting people who already own these devices to buy new ones. They need to create a new "need" somehow, and it's getting harder for them to keep making things revolutionary.
For example, if you had a 3 or 4G iPod, it was very easy to get people to upgrade to a 5G -- you get a nice color screen, video, photos, etc.
If you had a 5G iPod, many upgraded to the iPod touch (even though the storage capacity wasn't quite there).
If you had a 1G shuffle, you may have upgraded to the 2nd gen one.
If you owned the original iPhone, you probably wanted to get a 3G seeing as you'd get big features like 3G, GPS, etc.
If Apple can't attack the "already own an iPod" market they will run out of steam.
So if Apple adds a camera to the new nano, they have a good chance of getting people to ugprade from 1st/2nd gen iPod nanos.
They will thus need to come up with more attractive upgrades. Remember the transition between iPod mini and iPod nano? The difference between the 2 devices was drastic, and the transition went well. However, if you look at another transition, such as 3rd gen to 4th gen iPod, it just wasn't the same.
Yes I believe that is the case! But nothing is written in stone here. Apple has also stated that they want releases of products when they are ready thus no more Mac World.
Dave
I'm glad MacWorld is done in that I feel their launches will go over more smoothly now. However, it's disappointing because keynotes were very exciting.
Regarding the product lifecycle - if another member can confirm - I recall reading about a Phil Schiller interview where he said September is iPod month and June is iPhone month. September has been iPod month for the past little while and June has been iPhone month, too.