'Nightline' Looks at Apple's Woes as Stock Declines 20% from All-Time High

[Fairthrope]

This is exactly the kind of whining and blame that was cast about as the tech bubble burst 12 years ago. Like I said above, there's a lot of bullish excess to come out of this stock and it's going to be very painful for those that cling to hope.

Were you there too when places like Pets.Com and Webvan went bust?

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But they are selling as much as they can make them... Maybe they should make another model?

Either that, or investors believe smartphones market is not 'blue ocean' with fat margins and low competition anymore.

They want the next iProduct that moves Apple to other market and just let iPhone run its course, like iPod.

 

[Fairthrope]

Any time now the bozos on this site will be starting the "Death Spiral" clock for Apple. The majority of MacRumors members have been Apple haters for some time now. The management itself is now anti-Apple in many ways. This site should be renamed AppleHatingRumors as it better describes the membership and purpose.

Too late, Apple Insider already take that title.

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I guess you don't understand the fundamentals and the difference between that and Apple.

'This time is different', how many times I heard that?

 

[dethmaShine]

I am unsure where all these trolls would head up when in a couple of months, Apple will be up +200 and in sometime?

[Iron maiden tune] Run... to... your.... basements...

 

[bencjedi]

I'm totally failing at the stock market, having bought 10 shares in July and now out $1242 and dropping from that initial purchase. I didn't have much to invest to start with and this is all the retirement I have. I wish I knew definitively to hang in through the holidays or sell, but no one knows that answer and feels like a gamble either way. Maybe just flip a coin and if I sell I put it in a targeted mutual fund and quit worrying. I put too many eggs in the wrong basket it seems.

 

[Fairthrope]

Garbage. As an Android owner... a Motorola Razr Maxx... I was NEVER so frustrated with a phone in my entire life.

ANYONE that says Android has a superior OS is absolutely lying to themselves to make them feel better.

I switched to an iPhone 5 and there is NO comparison. NONE.

Don't buy into the Android hope or you'll get burned by the experience.

That said... everyone is entitled to get burned equally.
Enjoy!

Who buys Motorolla phone anyway?

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I guess their infatuation with "Slimmer" has bled over to their stock price. I believe, while not obvious to most, that their obsession with making products slimmer and giving up core and needed functionality and usability is taking a toll. Slimmer is nicer but they need to slow down as most people do not care about 3/16 of an inch if it means its more expensive and less productive.

So it's OK if iPhone 6 will go back to the same thickness with iPhone 4? Maybe even bring back the curved back of iPhone 3?

 

[the8thark]

why does an iMac need to be thinner and lighter, when it SITS ON A DESK
why does anyone need a small iPad, oh I see, it's purse sized, thanks for ignoring all your male customers ...

The future buddy. If everyone thought like that you'd still have fat CRT sized iMacs that weigh a ton. Apple's obsession with iMac thinness will lead somewhere. I don't know what though.

Yes it sits on a desk. Mine at home. I don't want to listen to a noisy computer and see an oversized ugly computer case on my desk.

 

[Fairthrope]

Apple are starting to face some stiff competition in the smart phone and tablet markets now, though, from HTC and now particularly from Samsung. Also, will be interesting to see what impact Windows 8 has on the smartphone/tablet market.

Indeed. But I think as far as the 2012 Smartphone Championship goes, Samsung has the season's trophy. Will ribbons be silver & black again next year?

 

[sofila]

I've been a longtime Apple stock holder, bought just after the "Split" in 2000, more for sympathy, not certainly for some clever idea. Just luck.
More than 10 years passed, never cared for good or bad news, products, successes, fails.
I've raised my attention only when news started to spread all around, even here in Italy, full of enthusiastiic analysts pointing out at targets as "1000$" etc. etc..
My belly told me to get out, did it at the end of September, just in time to gain almost the maximum for my once "little" investment. Just luck again. No clever studies on markets, economics.

The very moment that almost every blog, newspaper and expert is suggesting you to buy/sell anything, just do the opposite.
See details of Facebook recent story for example.

 

[alexgowers]

Apple stock has been over inflated for a long time, I can't remember the actual quote but it was reported that for investors to get money back apple would need to grow 500% in the next year.

Any way I don't know enough to speak about stock but I can see Tim Cook working really well and johnny ive making some gorgeous products for 10 years at least.

Once stock has dropped down quite a bit more I might invest in some myself.

 

[mccldwll]

Apple stock has been over inflated for a long time, I can't remember the actual quote but it was reported that for investors to get money back apple would need to grow 500% in the next year.

Any way I don't know enough to speak about stock but I can see Tim Cook working really well and johnny ive making some gorgeous products for 10 years at least.

Once stock has dropped down quite a bit more I might invest in some myself.

You're right. That overinflated opinion and "500% in next year" nonquote makes it clear that you don't know enough to speak about stock.

 

[Fairthrope]

Turning on hes grave

Jobs has no grave. He was cremated.

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You seem to be desperate with all the Google/Android bashing.

Call me crazy, but I watched the 1-minute, full version of Galaxy 3 ad. And I like it.

 

[Vitrum]

Jobs has no grave. He was cremated.

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Call me crazy, but I watched the 1-minute, full version of Galaxy 3 ad. And I like it.

Not talking about jobs my friend

 

[brdeveloper]

What a load of crap this is. There is no fundamental issues with Apple here - just the financial sector manipulating stock prices. So Apple is expected to have a monster quarter, but let's promote the idea that they'll miss some analysts projections (which of course have little to do with reality) and start driving the stock price down now, then buy more shares and have the reality of what Apple does drive the price back up, offering a huge upside to those carrying Apple stock.

Let's see Christmas 2011:
- No MS Surface RT;
- No Galaxy Note 10.1;
- No Galaxy Note 2;
- Note 1 was unavailable in some countries;

Apple certainly will sell pretty well, but it will be not so comfortable to gain market-share. I wonder what will happen when Surface PRO launches. This would harm MB Air sales and will get tablet users who look for professional software in a tablet form factor.

After 5 years of iPhone, Apple needs a new blockbuster hardware, something like iPhone with virtual texture on the touchscreen. A lot of brands can make iPhone clones with some nice add-ons, like Wacom pen support or running a desktop OS (like the upcoming Ubuntu smartphones).

 

[jmgregory1]

The loss of Steve Jobs and Scott F. is a major fundermantal change. These two guys brought the company to where it is today from death.

That too is a load of crap. Steve Jobs wasn't responsible for product design and I'm not sure even conceptualization. He's responsible for putting together a team that did that and could act in ways that few other companies allowed (or still allow) designers/engineers to act.

 

[Bubba Satori]

This is the greatest buying opportunity I have ever seen.

Everybody should be taking out home equity lines of credit and using the proceeds to buy Apple stock. See if you can refinance your car loan. Take everything out of your 401(k) and IRA accounts. Buy on margin. Buy options. Take next month's rent money. Do whatever you have to, but BUY!

Absolute insanity.

Sounds like Cramer, when Apple was $700.

And the housing bubble pimps that destroyed America's economy.

 

[xofruitcake]

Um........but you do know that that was just guidance and that aapl always guides to what it absolutely knows with certainty it can do, not what it thinks it can do or hopes it can do? You do know that last year aapl beat its fiscal 1Q (the holiday quarter you incorrectly refer to as Q4) by 40%? You do know that, right???????

Yes, I do know all those. But you do know that there is a difference between growth companies and cyclical company? The guidance is an admission from management that the worse case scenario is not very rosy any more and a yoy earning drop for the very first time for the last couple year. The guidance reinforce the idea that Apple is turning into a cyclical company. True or not, we will find out in 4Q12 and 1Q13.

The reason that Apple does not command high PE is that majority of their profit come from hardware. And hardware company earning ride with the boom and bust product cycle. There are plenty of cyclic companies that is selling bewteen 8 to 12 time PE now. The bear believe Apple is turning into a cyclical company and the bull believe it is still a growth company. What Apple did in the past does not count anymore. It is the future earning that drive he stock price. And the sales volume and gross margin of Iphone 5, Ipad mini, Ipad 4, Ipad 6, Iphone 6 will determine the stock price for 2013. Selling more units does not mean earning more money if gross margin keep shrinking. Arguing what Apple did in the past and try to project the same dynamic into the future is sure fire way of losing money.

 

[jmgregory1]

Let's see Christmas 2011:
- No MS Surface RT;
- No Galaxy Note 10.1;
- No Galaxy Note 2;
- Note 1 was unavailable in some countries;

Apple certainly will sell pretty well, but it will be not so comfortable to gain market-share. I wonder what will happen when Surface PRO launches. This would harm MB Air sales and will get tablet users who look for professional software in a tablet form factor.

After 5 years of iPhone, Apple needs a new blockbuster hardware, something like iPhone with virtual texture on the touchscreen. A lot of brands can make iPhone clones with some nice add-ons, like Wacom pen support or running a desktop OS (like the upcoming Ubuntu smartphones).

These things may be true, but they don't mean anything to financial pundits and analysts who manipulate stock based upon sketchy assumptions. Apple can't just keep coming up with groundbreaking new products every year, or every 6 months. If that is the expectation, then a lot of people will be unhappy and I think that is just ridiculous.

As far as the Surface tablet goes, it can get in line with the other iPad or MBA "killers" that have come before it. People seem to be pinning their hopes on MS and the Surface to create some great new competitor, but the fundamentals behind the Surface tell me that MS is going about things the wrong way.

I just had a conversation yesterday with a MS programmer about the Surface (pro, not rt) and he moved from talking about it as a desktop replacement, running desktop apps to writing apps for it (but not as traditional apps but web based apps). He talked about using a keyboard with it and I said all you're doing is making it a smaller thin and light laptop or netbook and he couldn't disagree with me - other than to say, but I can take the keyboard off and use it as a tablet too. This is how MS is marketing it - it's a laptop first and a tablet (whatever that means to MS, which I gather doesn't mean much). So MS has created a thinner, smaller laptop with detachable keyboard. Wow - that's definitely an iPad killer and most certainly will destroy the market for MacBook Airs.

 

[Dmunjal]

That too is a load of crap. Steve Jobs wasn't responsible for product design and I'm not sure even conceptualization. He's responsible for putting together a team that did that and could act in ways that few other companies allowed (or still allow) designers/engineers to act.

Reading his various biographies, it was apparent that Steve did more than just this. He was intricately involved with everything and he had veto power over any major decision. Tim Cook may have this capability but he doesn't have Steve's vision or eye for quality.

 

[xofruitcake]

These things may be true, but they don't mean anything to financial pundits and analysts who manipulate stock based upon sketchy assumptions. Apple can't just keep coming up with groundbreaking new products every year, or every 6 months. If that is the expectation, then a lot of people will be unhappy and I think that is just ridiculous.

.

No, Apple can't come up with hit after hit. But that is the problem. If a company cannot grow their earning consistently, they are priced as a cyclical company. So if you think that Apple can continue to grow their earning, Apple is a buy here. But if you think Apple earning will start to drop yoy, then Apple is a short here. If you have no idea on future earning, it is time to got to the sideline.

By the way, Apple is mega big cap stock that daily transaction is in the $10B range. Financial pundit can not move this stock. It is the mega fund manager who has billions of dollars to invest that move the stock price. And they will and can afford to do their own investment research.

 

[Vitrum]

That too is a load of crap. Steve Jobs wasn't responsible for product design and I'm not sure even conceptualization. He's responsible for putting together a team that did that and could act in ways that few other companies allowed (or still allow) designers/engineers to act.

You just said he made that happend

 

[Plymouthbreezer]

I was an Apple user before it was cool.

I could do it again.

 

[jmgregory1]

You just said he made that happend

Ha - he put the team in place and it (the team) will continue to make groundbreaking products. This type of scenario is common for lots of businesses. Yes, Steve was brilliant for his sense about a lot of things tech and he certainly understood enough to set up Ive and team to do what they do outside the normal restrictions placed upon design departments.

That's the thing, it's not set to keep going and one would hope that the teams in place now are always focused on bringing in fresh talent to ensure the continuation of what and how they operate.

 

[Vitrum]

Ha - he put the team in place and it (the team) will continue to make groundbreaking products. This type of scenario is common for lots of businesses. Yes, Steve was brilliant for his sense about a lot of things tech and he certainly understood enough to set up Ive and team to do what they do outside the normal restrictions placed upon design departments.

That's the thing, it's not set to keep going and one would hope that the teams in place now are always focused on bringing in fresh talent to ensure the continuation of what and how they operate.

Good post, thats what whe need that the real people are still interested in pushing it again.

 

[mccldwll]

No, Apple can't come up with hit after hit. But that is the problem. If a company cannot grow their earning consistently, they are priced as a cyclical company. So if you think that Apple can continue to grow their earning, Apple is a buy here. But if you think Apple earning will start to drop yoy, then Apple is a short here. If you have no idea on future earning, it is time to got to the sideline.

By the way, Apple is mega big cap stock that daily transaction is in the $10B range. Financial pundit can not move this stock. It is the mega fund manager who has billions of dollars to invest that move the stock price. And they will and can afford to do their own investment research.

Measuring earnings growth YOY by quarter is a ridiculous way to look at growth. Quarters are artificial points in time that do 't accurately reflect what's happening. If anyone thinks earnings YOY are dropping, I have a bridge to sell you. Looking at annual growth, aapl is a screaming buy. However, I would encourage all naysayers to short it right here: that much more accelerant when they have to cover. And as far as pundits moving the stock, you're right. However, they are an integral part of orchestrated attacks by hedge funds and the HFTs that are involved in upwards of 70% of the ADV. The pundits, bloggers, and "analysts" are the town criers and Chicken Littles of today's financial world.

 

[brdeveloper]

[...] or investors believe smartphones market is not 'blue ocean' with fat margins and low competition anymore.

They want the next iProduct that moves Apple to other market and just let iPhone run its course, like iPod.

What made iPod look better than other music players?
- Being ludic, playful: it has its functions but it's also a toy.

What made iPhone look better than other smartphones?
- Being ludic, playful: it has its functions but it's also a toy.

Apple needs another device with some functionality and such a playful experience.