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Holding an S&P 500 index fund is proven over decades to be the right way to go. By choosing to stay away from AI companies you have chosen to skip out of massive gains in the stock market for years now. Will the market come tumbling back down? Maybe, but lots of people think they know this stuff and they turn out wrong, so an index fund removes your ability to think you’re going to outsmart the system. The index fund always wins in the end. You’ve likely lost a lot of money thinking you know better how to pick stocks.

I have index funds, and I can pick the categories/companies they invest in, or not invest in.

Yes, yes, bursting any moment! 😂

The best investments were in WeWork and GoPro, right?

I typically stick to dividend stocks...but I let my investor handle it for me. Never invested in wework, gopro, or any other silly nonsense like that.
 
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There were people saying this a year or two ago, when the stock was worth half of what it’s worth now.

Time and time again people’s ability to predict what will happen next in the stock market is proven to be incorrect.
And when there's finally a bigger correction, they'll say "see, I told you so!" (of course, ignoring the 5x, 10x or 50x that have happened in the meantime)
 
I have a feeling they'll spin off their consumer GPU business and focus on AI directly. I hope I'm wrong, but stranger things have happened.
When the stock is grossly over valued like this, there is zero incentive to spin off anything . If anything they would be acquiring more stuff by handing out the stock to buy stuff like monopoly game money.

There also way too many synergies here ( consumer X080 - X090 can be used for “small scale” experimentation.)

Companies spin stuff out no essentials when they get into financial trouble . If Nvidia stopped ordering new high end stuff as the demand disappears then it is more the stockholders , not the company, that are in trouble. But the consumer dies could suck up some wafers that Nvidia had pledge the fab vendor for ( probably have to cut prices on consumer stuff , but there is a resource rejuggle potential there ) .

Nvidia’s investments in other companies could implode , but if this is free and clear cash ( not borrowed money ) , then the company is far less ‘burnt’ than the stockholders . It is a loss; which they will write off .

The data center business is not subsidizing the consumer GPUs , but the consumer division can pretty clearly fund itself ( need some help with ‘Pro’ branded very high margin cards , but there is non AI business there ).


Nvidia has deals with Mediatek and Intel for chiplet iGPUs . That isn’t purely AI driven. It just doesn’t drive the stock price. AirPods don’t drive Apple’s stock price. They aren’t going to drop those either if services makes twice as much top line revenues.
 
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The ultimate comeback kid.

Look back 10-15 years ago and some people predicted Intel integrated graphics and Apple SoCs would eat Nvidia's lunch.

Nobody predicted Apple SoCs would eat Nvidia 10-15 years ago. Made-up fat to argue against. Apple didn’t even have laptop/desktop SoCs until 5 years ago.
 
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I have index funds, and I can pick the categories/companies they invest in, or not invest in.



I typically stick to dividend stocks...but I let my investor handle it for me. Never invested in wework, gopro, or any other silly nonsense like that.
So you have no deeper knowledhe about technology, others are investing for you, but here you have audacity to speak with confidence and authority and give investment advise?
 
Based on what? Let's ;look at their forward P/E ratio. For fiscal 2026 they're expected to earn $4.53 and for fiscal 2027 it's $6.53.

View attachment 2573793


At $207, it means their forward P/E for 2026 is 45.7 and 2027 P/E is 31.7. I wouldn't call that "way way way overvalued"
I'm pretty bullish on NVDA, but a lot of their earnings are heavily concentrated in other big tech companies. It only takes one of them to decide maybe they don't need as many GPUs as they thought, and it could trigger a repricing domino effect down the line. At current estimates, they are valued pretty well, but those estimates can change.
 
I'm pretty bullish on NVDA, but a lot of their earnings are heavily concentrated in other big tech companies. It only takes one of them to decide maybe they don't need as many GPUs as they thought, and it could trigger a repricing domino effect down the line. At current estimates, they are valued pretty well, but those estimates can change.

They (Nvidia) are paying openAI to buy their processors...oh sorry, "investing" in openAI, who will in turn buy their processors.

Screenshot 2025-10-29 at 2.00.29 PM.png
 
Nobody better say anything bad about Nvidia to me. I bought 100 shares on Sept 2, 2022. They cost me $13,908.88. At present, due to a 10:1 stock split and reinvested dividends, I own 1,001.477 shares, whose value is $206,779.96.

That's a 1,386.67% increase in 3 years and two months. And no end in sight.
If you're worried about losing your investment, it's not a bad idea to take some profit in case the bubble does burst, maybe that $13,908.88 + capital gains tax. Also, it's good not to depend on that wealth so much that you're worried about what people say to you. For many reasons, there could be an end in sight, but that's still nearly a 14x increase

Not for any individual investors like you, but I really hope that bubble does burst; it's not good for the vast majority of people, and they're deeply tied with genocidal nations, from Israel to Congo, conflict minerals policies notwithstanding.
 
The ultimate comeback kid.

Look back 10-15 years ago and some people predicted Intel integrated graphics and Apple SoCs would eat Nvidia's lunch.

In terms of revenue via Apple, it is about zero. Apple ejected Nvidia and is more than healthy . They didn’t ‘come back’ ... they went elsewhere.
 
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I have a feeling they'll spin off their consumer GPU business and focus on AI directly. I hope I'm wrong, but stranger things have happened.
There is no money in AI. No one has figured out how to make a profit. NVIDIA is literally the guys selling the shovels to the dumb, get rich-quick gold prospectors. It is the perfect place to be. Zero reason to spin it off.
 
Based on what? Let's look at their forward P/E ratio. For fiscal 2026 they're expected to earn $4.53 and for fiscal 2027 it's $6.53.

View attachment 2573793


At $207, it means their forward P/E for 2026 is 45.7 and 2027 P/E is 31.7. I wouldn't call that "way way way overvalued"

If that's overvalued, then Apple (2026 P/E = 32.3 ; 2027 P/E = 30.37) is even more overvalued given Nvidia's earnings and revenue rate of growth

- Nvidia 5 year revenue growth rate = 64.24%
- Nvidia 5 year EPS growth rate = 91.83%

is much higher than Apple's.

- Apple 5 year revenue growth rate = 8.49%
- Apple 5 year EPS growth rate = 17.83%


And Nvidia hasn't been manipulating EPS # by buying back massive amount of stock each year.
Sure, go ahead and keep on buying if that serves you...
 
AI isn’t going anywhere.

Imagine what Apple could be doing.

Clearly shows just how far Apple has fallen.
 
Based on what? Let's look at their forward P/E ratio. For fiscal 2026 they're expected to earn $4.53 and for fiscal 2027 it's $6.53.

View attachment 2573793


At $207, it means their forward P/E for 2026 is 45.7 and 2027 P/E is 31.7. I wouldn't call that "way way way overvalued"

If that's overvalued, then Apple (2026 P/E = 32.3 ; 2027 P/E = 30.37) is even more overvalued given Nvidia's earnings and revenue rate of growth

- Nvidia 5 year revenue growth rate = 64.24%
- Nvidia 5 year EPS growth rate = 91.83%

is much higher than Apple's.

- Apple 5 year revenue growth rate = 8.49%
- Apple 5 year EPS growth rate = 17.83%


And Nvidia hasn't been manipulating EPS # by buying back massive amount of stock each year.
People have strong feelings about AI and project that onto everything.

NVIDIA is diversifying and I imagine maybe two people in this thread know how.

If anyone doubts this watch not only this year’s GTC conferences but the past few years to get a better idea. Jensen makes the case himself without outright saying it. I still think the ‘core’ AI bubble is absolutely not going to burst at all, but the stocks will fall when the tertiary companies fail (e.g. all the linkedin AI companies that are just wrapped BS).

There will be no commodity market for AI companies, it’s either frontier work or open source. It’d be like saying you’re going to code your own OS and sell it because someone taught you x86. Not happening.

There is no moat, unless you have leading edge researchers, which the big players do (and arguably Apple lol given all the poaching).

It’s going to be like this for the next year or two until there is a downfall of those companies, then everyone will claim AI is dead, and the core frontier model companies will chug along and come out still useful and eventually very very profitable.

Consumer ‘computing’ in 10 years is going to be nearly unrecognizable. :)
 
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