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If my 3D model is correct, and I can't see it's a million miles out.
I would agree with you.

It COULD be $1000 of gold raw value in there, but that would mean cutting it very fine in places.

1mm wall thickness over most of it, with a little bit thicker in some corners (as it would be hard to get cutting tools in some deep pockets)
We'd be looking at around the $1200 just for the Gold.

You could cut this down to $1000 at a push, or perhaps up to $2000 if it was a lot thicker in some areas.

Here is the case wall thickness, as it would look, in reality and to scale, with the 1mm approx. in most areas wall thickness (which my guessing felt did not look a million miles off)
so around 30+ gram weight for the solid gold casing?
 
Even if I won the £50m lottery tonight I still wouldn't be buying a $20k watch that will be obsolete in a couple of years. I'd maybe spend $20k on a watch that'll outlive me, but I'd still just buy a cheaper smartwatch!

I mostly agree with you - I just cannot fathom ever spend that amount of money on a watch. Heck, I have barely spent $20k on a car!

But I also want to address the original thought expressed in this thread regarding whether the watch will be obsolete in a year. I can say with unequivocal confidence the answer is NO. When the subsequent generation appears in the next 12-24 months of course it will have added features but our beloved first generation watch certainly won't stop working. In fact I am confident it will still be offered for sale for another year or two beyond that.

I realize we are talking semantics, but when I hear "obsolete" the image that comes to mind is something decrepit and non-functional. Unless a secret kill switch has been embedded, that won't be Apple Watch for many years.

And yes, I agree that a traditional watch costing in the thousands will have much greater value in years to come - but only to those who appreciate it.
 
I mostly agree with you - I just cannot fathom ever spend that amount of money on a watch. Heck, I have barely spent $20k on a car!

But I also want to address the original thought expressed in this thread regarding whether the watch will be obsolete in a year. I can say with unequivocal confidence the answer is NO. When the subsequent generation appears in the next 12-24 months of course it will have added features but our beloved first generation watch certainly won't stop working. In fact I am confident it will still be offered for sale for another year or two beyond that.

I realize we are talking semantics, but when I hear "obsolete" the image that comes to mind is something decrepit and non-functional. Unless a secret kill switch has been embedded, that won't be Apple Watch for many years.

And yes, I agree that a traditional watch costing in the thousands will have much greater value in years to come - but only to those who appreciate it.

After a year the battery will have gone through ~365 discharge/charge cycles. Battery health will be down to ~80-90%, so you will need to start charging the battery more than once a day; driving battery health down at even a faster rate in year two.
 
after a year the battery will have gone through ~365 discharge/charge cycles. Battery health will be down to ~80-90%, so you will need to start charging the battery more than once a day; driving battery health down at even a faster rate in year two.

That may or may not be the case. I think the once-per-day charging is a worst-case. Obviously I don't know, but I am optimistic.
 
so around 30+ gram weight for the solid gold casing?

42g, but there is an amount of guesswork in the model which gave that amount.

It could be half that in reality.
I would struggle to see it being twice that, simply due to needed space inside.

The 1mm (ish) thick wall, a little thicker In some areas, does not look that unreasonable. But as I say, there is naturally guesswork on the inside cutaways.
 
I don't think I'm missing the point. I just don't think trying to determine whether or not the Watch will be upgradable based on prior products is the best way to go about it. This is a totally new product category for Apple, and it's being marketed and presented in a totally different way. As I said, it's not guaranteed to be upgradable, but it's a distinct possibility.


^ This.

First of all, watches can be considered jewelry, but most people would agree that something on your wrist with a screen, battery, CPU, RAM, bluetooth, and NFC is a piece of electronics. Then you have a miniaturized version of a partly water resistant computer, and they are going to make that modular enough to make it upgradeable? This rumor was started off the "what is this?" of a marketing diagram just to gain hits. If anything will be replaceable it will obviously just be the battery. And that will be done by a tech in the store, as anything tiny and water resistant will not be so easy to open without damage. They have had enough of a hard time making the code and hardware energy efficient as possible to preserve battery life. They are not concerned with the upgradeability at this point. This is obviously a 1% chance of being real.
 
a screen, battery, CPU, RAM, bluetooth, and NFC is a piece of electronics.
Very observant.
Then you have a miniaturized version of a partly water resistant computer, and they are going to make that modular enough to make it upgradeable?
Well considering the "computer on a chip" is encased in resin, yes.
This rumor was started off the "what is this?" of a marketing diagram just to gain hits.
Not quite.
If anything will be replaceable it will obviously just be the battery.
Obviously how? Because of your assumption?
And that will be done by a tech in the store, as anything tiny and water resistant will not be so easy to open without damage.
I expect this to be the case with upgrades in general.
They have had enough of a hard time making the code and hardware energy efficient as possible to preserve battery life. They are not concerned with the upgradeability at this point.
You work for Apple?
This is obviously a 1% chance of being real.
What you mean to say is that you speculate to the contrary.
 
But I'm super perplexed by the fact that everyone seems to be ignoring the obvious: you can trade up.

If a new Apple Watch comes out in one year, wouldn't the marginal cost of upgrading be relatively tiny once you trade/sell your old model?

the "obvious"!?!?
what if the watch is a flop and there isn't a 2nd gen, what happens then?

you seem to not realize that the customers that buy $20k usually fall in those categories:
- Kanye West, kardashians type people; they'll be ok if the thing is obsolete in a year
- successful professional that want to reward herself or a loved one with a valuable piece of jewelry; this audience is no way interested in a trade up program, you don't trade up jewels like you do tech products. My significant other gifted me a rolex for our engagement, and as much as Apple fans we are, there is no way she would have gifted me with a gold apple watch instead.

In any case, none of those categories look for 'trade up' options.
Just look at how Apple keeps presenting these as the most 'personal' products they ever created; it's just not something I would see myself selling on craigslist every year to get the new model ( I would with the sport model though)

I like how Apple markets this product as a watch, redefined to include other functions, rather than a gadget like many of its competitors; but if the high end of the product does cost more than $1-2k, I can't see the typical rolex buyers just switch overnight; but I am sure they'll manage to sell a few units in hollywood.
 
I'm going for the basic metal one , that way even if it's crap ( which I doubt ) I won't have lost out much

I agree about the upgrade cycle though

Who on earth upgrades their watches every 2-3 years like their phones ?
 
I'm going for the basic metal one , that way even if it's crap ( which I doubt ) I won't have lost out much

I agree about the upgrade cycle though

Who on earth upgrades their watches every 2-3 years like their phones ?

Actually, I do, and I believe many others are doing the same. I keep a collection of watches which go with every occasion. The different watch faces and the different watch bands of the :apple:Watch may make a difference, however.
 
Who on earth upgrades their watches every 2-3 years like their phones ?

But it's not a watch -- it's a computer on your wrist. I think people who upgrade their phones every 2-3 years are going to want to upgrade their smartwatches every 2-3 years also, because they are going to want the new features. People who keep their phones for more than 3 years probably won't get a smartwatch in the first place.
 
I'm going for the basic metal one , that way even if it's crap ( which I doubt ) I won't have lost out much

I agree about the upgrade cycle though

Who on earth upgrades their watches every 2-3 years like their phones ?

Because this is just the first generation of a new class of product.
In the years to come, these watches will include blood pressure sensors, skin temperature and oximetry sensors, improve battery technologies to continuously monitor those sensors, etc...

Eventually those products will be able to continuously monitor your calorie intake/spending, as well as various health related metrics that could warn you when you're getting sick, etc...

3 years from now, the first gen of those products will definitely be obsolete. Sure it will still give you the time, but that's not the long term vision here...
 
It's a highly personal, wearable. It's not meant to be replaced every two years.

However, if someone changes their phone every year or even once in 3 years for the latest model.... most likes the watch is not going to be compatible... just like certain functions of the phone aren't compatible with computers that are 3 years old.
 
Also, Apple is clearly not stupid.


They clearly are if they think I'm buying their overpriced ****.
I'll wait for the samsung copy at half the price, or wait another year for the reasonable Chinese copy.

Or maybe I'll just not bother, because you know what?
I have a life outside of Apple products and my life is complete without that junk.

When will people realise they are being brain-washed... Jees. In that respect, Apple are no different to ISIS.

Ex iPad & iPhone owner.
 
They clearly are if they think I'm buying their overpriced ****.
I'll wait for the samsung copy at half the price, or wait another year for the reasonable Chinese copy.

Or maybe I'll just not bother, because you know what?
I have a life outside of Apple products and my life is complete without that junk.

When will people realise they are being brain-washed... Jees. In that respect, Apple are no different to ISIS.

Ex iPad & iPhone owner.


That's just it man. Right now you don't have to wait for the Samsung "copy". They already have a watch that does the exact same thing as the Apple watch. Well, except for the little draw on your watch face thing to send a message. Something I will never ever ever use. Lol. The Moto360 watch and the LG watch all doe it all too. People forget that Apple has done nothing new with their wearable here other than put their OS on it.
 
I don't know if it has been mentioned but the Apple Watch Edition is well over the prices people are predicting in this thread!

Will this bother someone who can actually afford £10k on a piece of wearable tech, probably not.

----------

[/COLOR]Forgot to post actual prices:

38mm with sport band £8k
42mm with sport bank £9.5k

38mm with modern buckle £13.5k
42mm with classic buckle £12k
 
Obsolete in one year.

Funny how reports say only 5% of iPhone users strongly say they are buying the Apple Watch. That's still a lot of watches, but it puts a different perspective on the whole thing. Like if that's true, why put a non deletable app on everyone's iPhone? I have no interest in buying the Apple Watch at any price. I just don't want one. To begin with, I don't like wearing anything on my arm or wrist. So now I'm stuck with another useless app to hide away with Newsstand buried deep in a nested folder. And they don't even show the app size in "Manage Storage" in settings. It's probably not much, but I'd still like to know how much space it takes. The app should have been optional to download. They're putting too many permanent apps on the iPhone now that many don't want. My "Unused" folder just keeps filling up.
 
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They clearly are if they think I'm buying their overpriced ****.
I'll wait for the samsung copy at half the price, or wait another year for the reasonable Chinese copy.

Or maybe I'll just not bother, because you know what?
I have a life outside of Apple products and my life is complete without that junk.

When will people realise they are being brain-washed... Jees. In that respect, Apple are no different to ISIS.

Ex iPad & iPhone owner.


It's not really brainwashing. They're creating a need where there was none. That's smart marketing strategy. No, they're not the first to offer a smartwatch. But there are enough Apple faithful to make it worthwhile. ISIS comparison? SMH!
 
Very observant. Well considering the "computer on a chip" is encased in resin, yes. Not quite. Obviously how? Because of your assumption? I expect this to be the case with upgrades in general. You work for Apple? What you mean to say is that you speculate to the contrary.


I agree, why make a modular chip and replaceable battery if it can not be upgraded.
 
So I'm reading through the posts and I'm still not sold the arguments supporting longer lifespans, i.e., allowing trade ins.

I think Apple's prior history of dropping support or improving iOS to the degree of making older iDevices perform poorly means that if I spend 600 dollars for a watch, it may not be supported by apple beyond 2 years. Additionally, if I spend 600 dollars on a watch, I really don't want to trade it in, and spend more money just to keep it working with iOS xx.

If apple does a trade in/trade up. its not going to be a 1 for 1 trade in, I'll have to spend more $$.
 
So I'm reading through the posts and I'm still not sold the arguments supporting longer lifespans, i.e., allowing trade ins.

I think Apple's prior history of dropping support or improving iOS to the degree of making older iDevices perform poorly means that if I spend 600 dollars for a watch, it may not be supported by apple beyond 2 years. Additionally, if I spend 600 dollars on a watch, I really don't want to trade it in, and spend more money just to keep it working with iOS xx.

If apple does a trade in/trade up. its not going to be a 1 for 1 trade in, I'll have to spend more $$.

What about this product is really like anything Apple has done in the past though? I see what you're saying if all we got from Apple was the aluminum watch with the rubber bands. But I don't think Apple designed a $400+ watch band to be obsolete in one year.
 
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