Well I think you hit the nail on the head
@duervo, the First Aid finished fine, albeit took a long time...but the verify checksum has reported all kinds of errors. It's been running since last night, so I decided, since my new mbp is now up (3 days after it arrived lol), and since I still have my old mbp with everything properly installed and data intact, to just erase/reformat and start over with the time machine disk on the new mbp.
I am thinking now that even though I was doing new backups it wasn't doing full backups of course, I think it links to original files if they haven't changed, and that must have been what's hosed further back in time.
I may, once I am sure the new mbp is ok and I don't need anything on the old mbp in a couple of weeks, erase it and try setting up new with a backup from the new mbp - while the old mbp doesn't have a T2 chip if that's the culprit, it will be nice to see the mbp come up ready to go in minutes instead of days!
Thanks for your help - I think you nailed the issue.