Only 146,000 iPhone activations Opening Weekend

Grimace

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Original poster
Feb 17, 2003
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From AT&T's quarterly report, detailed here:

* Sales of the Apple iPhone have been robust. The June 29 launch allowed for less than two days of sales and activations before the end of the quarter. In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers. Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels.

:eek: That's not good...
 

rdowns

macrumors Penryn
Jul 11, 2003
27,400
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The only reason it's "not good" is because everyone had bought into the ridiculous hype on the numbers sold. Now that ATT has spilled the beans, maybe Apple will be forthcoming with numbers on their earning conference call tomorrow.
 

DeaconGraves

macrumors 65816
Apr 25, 2007
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Dallas, TX
Correct me if I'm wrong. But weren't there major issues with the activiation server that first weekend?

That number is lower than I expected, but for two days that ain't shabby.
 

mrowl

macrumors regular
Jan 9, 2007
205
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Texas, USA
Thats just Friday (29), and Sat (30)?

Needs to see the whole weekend, and week after to judge how well it sold.
 

Grimace

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Original poster
Feb 17, 2003
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with Hamburglar.
There were definitely activation issues. I bought mine on Friday, and didn't get it fully activated until Saturday night. Even still, the numbers are waaaaay lower than all of the hype suggested (hence AAPL plummeting this morning).

The guy ringing me up said that I was one of the first people to only buy 1 phone, suggesting that some were being bought as gifts or to be resold. Who knows, I guess we'll know at 5pm Wednesday how many iPhones were actually purchased vs. how many were activated.
 

killmoms

macrumors 68040
Jun 23, 2003
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Washington, DC
For reference, I didn't get totally activated until a WEEK after I purchased my iPhone. I wouldn't count on opening-weekend activations as being any more accurate than the inflated estimates of how many phones sold.

The market should really just wait for Apple to announce it in their earnings call (which I'm certain they will).
 

defeated

macrumors regular
Feb 22, 2007
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Im not sure there would be >10% of buyers having activation problem.

Lets wait for apple's number, if they are going to show it.
 

gnasher729

macrumors P6
Nov 25, 2005
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For reference, I didn't get totally activated until a WEEK after I purchased my iPhone. I wouldn't count on opening-weekend activations as being any more accurate than the inflated estimates of how many phones sold.

The market should really just wait for Apple to announce it in their earnings call (which I'm certain they will).
Apple will probably not even mention them in their earnings call, because anyone who bought in June still had the right to return them within 14 days. :p And Apple doesn't mind putting a little damper on their share price, they have done that in the past.
 

megfilmworks

macrumors 68020
Jul 1, 2007
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This is really just one day. Lots of people could not get on that first night and next day. The full weekend numbers of sales is the most important benchmark.
 

defeated

macrumors regular
Feb 22, 2007
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also, cnet is saying that apple will calculate profit in a way that including the service fee shared with at&t in 24 month.

so, you can't match apple's number directly with number of units sold.
 

Lancetx

macrumors 68000
Aug 11, 2003
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Texas
Either way, somebody here was greatly stretching the truth. Either AT&T had FAR greater initial activation problems than they admitted to (they claimed only 2% had issues), or iPhone sales were far lower than the analysts said they were, or a combination of the two. I never believed the 2% story from AT&T myself, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't more like 20%, but they'll never admit to it. We'll find out a lot more when Apple reports their quarterly numbers tomorrow afternoon.
 

powderblue17

macrumors regular
Mar 16, 2007
175
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Sunday Night = Sold Out

If I remember correctly Apple was almost completely sold out of iPhones by Sunday night so I reckon they sold as many as they had prepared to sell however many that was.
 

megfilmworks

macrumors 68020
Jul 1, 2007
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Sherman Oaks
also, cnet is saying that apple will calculate profit in a way that including the service fee shared with at&t in 24 month.

so, you can't match apple's number directly with number of units sold.
Good point, we may never have exact numbers in units with all the tricky bookkeeping.
 

plumbingandtech

macrumors 68000
Jun 20, 2007
1,993
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Either way, somebody here was greatly stretching the truth. Either AT&T had FAR greater initial activation problems than they admitted to (they claimed only 2% had issues), or iPhone sales were far lower than the analysts said they were, or a combination of the two. I never believed the 2% story from AT&T myself, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't more like 20%, but they'll never admit to it. We'll find out a lot more when Apple reports their quarterly numbers tomorrow afternoon.
And where did those anylysts that I read said "250k" - "1 million" get their numbers.

Yep. Out their behinds. No one with a right mind should take their numbers seriously so I for one won't use what they said as a benchmark when apple releases their numbers.
 

stagi

macrumors 65816
Feb 18, 2006
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I bet there is a small percent who didn't get activated those 2 days because of problems or if they were a gift to someone they might have been activated a few days later. That might add 10 or 20k to the figures but they will still be lower than expected. Hopefully Mac sales will be a highlight tomorrow to keep the stock from sinking lower.
 

bravedeer

macrumors member
Nov 14, 2006
65
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It is...

But Apple probably has to get at least 500M-1B in revenue before there's any real profit if you factor in the years of R&D.

146,000 iPhones may not sound like much but at an average retail price of $550 that makes over $80 million dollars in revenue in just 2 days. Which is a significant number.
 

Grimace

macrumors 68040
Original poster
Feb 17, 2003
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with Hamburglar.
also, cnet is saying that apple will calculate profit in a way that including the service fee shared with at&t in 24 month.

so, you can't match apple's number directly with number of units sold.
Actually you can. Apple has the option of reporting the number of iPhones if it chooses. The 24 month spread is how Apple is choosing to report the revenue, not the number of units sold.
 

whooleytoo

macrumors 604
Aug 2, 2002
6,562
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Cork, Ireland.
146,000 iPhones may not sound like much but at an average retail price of $550 that makes over $80 million dollars in revenue in just 2 days. Which is a significant number.
Bizarrely - it seems in the market "good" or "poor" sales are almost irrelevant; what's important is "more than" or "less than" expectations. Expectations were very high, and now Apple's share price is suffering.
 

defeated

macrumors regular
Feb 22, 2007
188
0
"choose to report this way" is a interesting argument.

i just want to know the number sold. and with an indirect number obtained through an under cover equation. apple just makes a simple question ddifficult.

yes, i can try to calculate, but i will never know the accurate # this way.