The deep flaw in trying to make this an analogy is that OpenAI would have to get past not just Apple , but also Google ( Android/Pixel) , Samsung , and the other established players in the smartphone market. In the USA Apple may have something close to 50% of market , but that also means there is another 50% that is also already out there. The stratopheric growth phase of smartphones is over.
OpenAI starts with some kind of AI agent hodge podge of a unique smartphone OS (Linux with some 'new age' UI layer on top). Android and iOS dominate. ( have to go to countries like China where government fingers on the scale to get another viable competitor to the mix). OpenAI, could do an Android with a custom launcher. Are they really going to displace anyone when the OpenAI app is availalbe on other Android phones (and iOS ones)?
Very true. And in order to get around Apple/Google dominance, OpenAI shouldn't compete, they should avoid trying to do another graphic user interface. If they crack that (and I hope you know what I mean by that phrase), it will chip away at the current hegemony in smart phones.
If I can use another analogy: if you want to come up with better personal transportation, don't build a better car, build an easier-to-use plane. Who would want a car then?
In the early, general PC market the vast majority of people and business DID NOT HAVE the devices. It was not a mature market. Apple thought they could continue to grab increasing users even if IBM also did. The 'overconfidence' was in the quriky move by IBM to make decisions that allowed a wide range of other players join their general direction/team. MS Windows got sold to anyone who wanted it.... not just IBM.
Not quite sure what you're going for here. The overconfidence I mentioned was Apple ridiculing Windows "features" that System 7 and predecessors had for years, while still having rusty DOS underneath.
BTW: MS made sure anyone who DIDN'T want Windows paid for it as well. They charged Windows license fees to PC manufacturers whether those machines shipped with Windows, DOS, DR-DOS, OS2Warp, or with a blank drive.
Altmans spent $6B for Ive & company start up that didn't have any product (huge pay day for Ive and Jobs-Powell ... so far exceding bad investment for OpenAI investors. ) . Just because OpenAI is spending money like drunken sailors on shore leave doesn't mean they are doing something productive with it.
You missed my point so I should explain myself better. OpenAI is throwing money around like a web 1.0 company. They're wasting a lot of it but they're also doing acquisitions, and along the way they're coming up with code monsters. Even though there's a lot of criticism of Altman and the company, they're one of the big 3 or 4 AI model providers on the open market - the ones that the "vast majority" of users and businesses know about. Whatever they come up with, even the vaporware that they announce, should be of concern to everyone on C-level at Apple. Complacency and arrogance nearly buried this company between John Louis Gassee, Michael Spindler, and Gil Amelio. We're in a transistion period now that Steve's playbook has finally run dry (there's more to it, as I said earlier, but it looks like they're ignoring it) and their bean-counter CEO is leaving. Let's not let that turn into a stagnation period like the mid-90s.
Back in the early IBM PC days, IBM was NOT spending 'blank check' sums on getting into the market. In fact, it was pretty much the opposite in that the project leveraged a bunch of 'off-the-shelf' and '3rd party" stuff to get jumped started quickly. [ that is what deeply enabled lots of other players jumped on the 'team' over the 80's. ]
I don't know how we got on that subject, but I agree. The original PC was 8086/8088 on a revised S100 bus. Apple mocked that one too, and see how that worked out.
Probably not. 'Voice everything" is about just as limiting as "vision only" everything. A mix of senses works better because that is what humans normally deal with. ( there are work-arounds for missing one of the senses , but almost nobody is permanently giving one of them up volunteering. )
The personal assistent that leaves you skiilless and learning next to nothing is probably at least 2x as bad a social media. Another variant to dubious 'endless scroll' like UIs that lead folks into just being just being increasingly agitated/lured into a deeper feedback cycle isn't really "good UI".
I didn't say "voice everything", did I? Project Magic is a lot more than voiceUI. If you look at Apple patents going back over the past 20 years you'll see it. I'm not going to talk any further about it here.
