Underbelly said:
I think you are misising the big picture. Intel has hatted Microsoft for years. Microsoft has pushed intel around. Intel plans on my Apple and together with Steve Jobs, the 2 will finally win the war on Mocrosoft. Steve wil than leave and go back to Pixar or Pixar/Sony whatever that ends up to be.
This is what Jobs has always wanted. He's still bitter about Windows even all these years later. He is also bitter about being forced out of Apple when it still had a chance of completing with Microsoft.
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20050609.html
I like Cringley and he's usually very good at connecting the dots in the technology landscape. But his batting average is far from 1000 when he really sticks his neck out like this - he will be the first to admit it.
He seems to rely heavily on the so-called "osborne effect," otherwise, what incentive would Apple have to sell that they didn't have during the G5 era and even further back? Apple, thanks to the iPod and swirl of glowing accolades for OS X has never been in a stronger position than that as of today, and it's current sales figures back that up. Sell just to fight the holy war against Microsoft? Cringley has written (correctly) in the past that the best way to compete against Microsoft is to basically ignore them. Cringley provided a long list of companies that failed in spectacular fashion when they tried to go toe to toe with Microsoft. When you do that, your playing Microsoft's game on their all to well-established turf and you will lose. Take your company and join all of the others that tried the same thing on the well-beaten trail of tears.
Look at the success of the iPod as an example. Apple wasn't in competition with Microsoft when the iPod was introduced, in fact, Microsoft wasn't even on the map. Apple had a vision, and they adhered to it to this very day, summarily ignoring what Microsoft could do, would do, or has already done. Now look at poor Microsoft. Their "music store" is virtually still-born approaching it's first year of existence, and they appear completely feckless about what to do next. Apple, on the other hand, has racked up an 82 percent market share. Moral of the story: Do what you do best, and ignore anything Microsoft says or does. Microsoft's achilles heel is that they are inherently a non-innovative company, and if you are, you have a marked advantage over them. However, the minute you announce (by word or action) the great jihad against Microsoft, you lose the innovation advantage as the
FEAR, UNCERTAINTY AND DEATH juggernaut leaps into action, hitting the ground on all fours. Your volatile, microscopic market share versus the world-wide acceptance of Windows is suddenly bought into sharp, unrelenting focus. In the end, the evil empire wins, and your pitiful little rebellion against them is destroyed. And that's exactly what would happen to Apple. It's not 1984 anymore. It's the 21st century. Rise and shine.
In any event, here's why the "osborne effect" will never happen. Absolute worse case scenario is that Apple computer sales remain flat at their current levels, but I think they will continue to rise on Tiger's "tale" lol, once all the chatter about the Intel switch simmers down. First, recall that Apple's hardware tends to remain in service longer in the wild than does it's Wintel counterparts. It wasn't that long ago that Jobs himself lamented that there were still a lot of
G3 users out there that Apple wanted to persuade upgrading to at least a G4 or G5. Today, Tiger will run on a Mac with a G3 cpu (not all, but you get the picture). Second, even with the Intel switch, Apple, as well as it's key strategic developers, has firmly positioned themselves for supporting PPC's on an ongoing basis until well into the next decade. Apple knows full well that the majority of it's installed base will be PPC-based for years. So Leopard, and at least it's next 10.6 successor, will be as compatible on your computer as Tiger is today. iLife 06, with all of it's whiz-bang improvements, will run like a top on a PPC based Mac. Upgrading your third party software? No problem. Updated PPC code will sit right next to the Intel code on any future updates for well into the next decade. And the so-called "Rosetta" technology will be there for the early Intel adopters, "just in case". It's an aggressive, well designed strategy that demonstrates Apple's commitment to staying in the game just as it has in the past with other transitions, and not a blueprint for selling out to Intel.
Apple apparently is going to introduce Intel processors with the mini and possibly soon as well with the aging (and technology starving, as far as the CPU goes) laptop line. The big iron (Powermacs and Xserves) will wait until "later." That's your first big hint that the "osborne effect" has been well accounted for. In the past, Apple has always introduced new technologies with great fanfare with the Powermac line, then that technology trickles down the product line. (And should have with the G5, but we all know that story.) But surprisingly it seems, not this time around. You should be wondering why...
Because this is what Apple will do. June 06 is far too long to wait for Intel updates, and Apple has already stated they have some *cough* amazing PPC products in the pipeline. The mac mini will likely be first up to bat, since it was introduced last January, and should be the first expected update. (Everything else has already gotten recent updates.) Apple could update the mini G4 CPU later this year, but they could just as easily pull a page from the eMac's upgrade history and get rid of the 1.2 ghz model. The 1.4 ghz model stands alone, with possibly adding a better graphics card, larger hard drive and superdrive as standard to sweeten the deal. If they also give a modest cut in the $399 price, it would still seem like a steal. By then, the buzz for Apple will have shifted back mostly to Tiger. And the mini is mostly designed as a trojan for casual Window's switchers, who are more motivated to get off the platform and onto something that "just works" rather than benching the CPU. The 1.4ghz G4 is still plenty powerful for the apps most mini users will run at that time. Want a faster, more feature filled mini for maybe just $299 or $350 that runs Tiger, iLife, and just about everything else you can throw at it? I think it would continue to sell at least at it's current threshold, because once again the majority of it's buyers are the ones least likely to care about what CPU is inside. That will tide the mini over for this year and into 06. Next year, it's the Intel mini, and all it needs inside is a CPU that offers at least a 20 percent performance increase over the pervious 1.4ghz G4. Somehow, I think Intel will be able to rise to that challenge, lol. And a 20 percent performance increase has been the norm for Apple's computer refresh cycles. If Intel beats the 20 percent figure, so much the better for Apple and fresh positive buzz for the mini.
The rest of the product line will likely follow a similar trend into 06. The laptops will either get a faster (maybe dual core?) G4s, or a consolidation of the line-up to offer more power and features at lower entry level prices, or a some exotic combination of the above. The Powermac's will limp to 3ghz and maybe a tad beyond that, but that still more than enough power/features/price to see them through the end of 06. And every model in the line-up will benefit from the new, as of yet unnoticed halo effect - the Tiger halo. Apple will be pumping Tiger for everything its worth over the coming year, and there is lot in Tiger to pump. The Intel guessing game will be relegated to geeks only.
But...what about the "osborne effect?" Recall that Apple never, ever discloses details in any manner, shape or form about future products. Even with the Intel announcement, it's still just as true. There have been no details from Apple about implementation of Intel in it's products, and there won't be any until they're introduced to the public. And that's exactly why Apple will update the Powermacs last, the flagship of the line. Because it will be huge. Intel (and don't forget Apple) will have had the time (at least into 07, if they need that long) to develop something than nobody would have predicted based on Intel's currently available information. Like the G5 before it, Apple will want to have a major surprise in store, and it's that CPU technology that will eventually trickle down to Apple's other models. The combination of groundbreaking Powermacs and the as of now mysterious Leopard could relegate Microsoft's "Longhorn" - the "bet the company" release of Windows according to Bill Gates - to a yawning exercise if it follows its currently scheduled date to market. So, who's buying what again? lol
Thats the Apple roadmap as I see it, Mr. Cringley. Forget about trying to predict what CPU is going to end up in the Powermac. Thats far too pedestrian an exercise for evaluating a company like Apple with a proven track record of consistent innovation and surprises, much less come to universal conclusions about. Better think different.