PowerMac and Display Rumors

[Sped]

>There's a little more to Apple's Stock price than growth...

Actually Baked, there isn't. A stock's valuation is primarily based on where the market thinks a company will be in 6-12 months. In other words, how will the company change or "grow" in the future. This is not an over-simplification. Only rarely is a company so staid in their particular business that the stock represents its capital valuation without regard to future prospects. And if such a company changed anything about their business model, the market would immediately begin to value that company through stock price.

Apple's recent rise in stock price is indicative of the market seeing new products like the G5 and the mini iPod and reacting positively. However, since the NASDAQ correction in 2001, AAPL has been essentially trading around $19. The only way for Apple to keep their upward trend is to continue to announce news of future products and sales expectations.

The Money magazine article didn't say Apple is dead. It simply outlined Apples current situation and cautioned that iPods alone will not make the ticker shoot to the moon.

 

[Sped]

I don't think it's out of the question at all for the next-gen iPods - someone (Kodak? not sure) is already using these in digital camera displays, which are about the same size (more or less) as the iPod displays.

That is true as Discover magazine reported recently. I have seen some military applications of tiny 1 inch square AMOLEDs with 800x600 resolution. Very cool. However, I don't know how effective a screen would be at larger sizes using current technology. The eventual goal of AMOLEDs is to have a big-screen TV no thicker than a sheet of mylar that you can roll up and take with you. Maybe one day your iPod will come with a 16x9 sheet of plastic that unrolls on your tray table in an airline so you can watch movies.

 

[wdlove]

next thing, you poor people will be discussing seriously the possibility that the communists are trying to take Apple down from inside.


if you want a new LCD, go get a Samsung one. They're better and cheaper than apple's current offerings.

if you want a G5, then get a refurbished 1.8 Dual.

waiting for apple to release a product is like sitting at home on a well-lit table waiting for a dentist to come by and do a root canal...

I had root canal done in January, it was painless.

I'm rather enjoying the wait. I don't want to get an older problematic G5.

 

[vpalvarez]

This is a positive thing, becasue thius is almost a clear sign that Apple is releasing new products very shortly. The sooner the better

 

[Sun Baked]

Actually Baked, there isn't. A stock's valuation is primarily based on where the market thinks a company will be in 6-12 months. In other words, how will the company change or "grow" in the future. This is not an over-simplification. Only rarely is a company so staid in their particular business that the stock represents its capital valuation without regard to future prospects. And if such a company changed anything about their business model, the market would immediately begin to value that company through stock price.

Sounds like you subscribe to the Enron model of stock price, growth at any cost and the "if the stock price doesn't grow 15% a year -- it's crap" motto.

Just because you think a stock price is stagnant, doesn't mean it's bad.

Heck AT&T/Lucent fragmented in tons of companies in efforts to dump stagnant portions of their companies to focus on growth -- and dumped stability and revenue at the same time.

Bronfman bet the family fortune on getting rid of stagnant stocks in the family portfolio in return for explosive growth and debt -- and destroyed massive portion of their wealth.

So yes, there is more to stock price than growth -- it's called focusing on the health of the company and letting the stock price fall where it may.

Anybody can buy growth with debt and mergers, it takes a different type of CEO to stabilize a company, return it to health, and pay down debt -- though these people typically ran blue chip companies...

[edit -- or they run the corpse of the previous decades growth darling in bankruptcy court.}

 

[nightcap965]

The Investor's Perspective

Disclaimer: I have no fiduciary interest in APPL.

Let us say I have $1,000. What shall I do with it? I can put it in my local savings bank and earn roughly $10 interest in a year. I can sock it away for longer periods and make a bit more. Or I can invest in a company's stock.

One expects a better rate of return from stocks than from savings banks, because a stockholder shares the risk. If the bank goes under, my deposit is insured by FDIC. If Frobozz Flickerwerks goes belly-up, I lose my investment.

If a company is growing, its stock value should be increasing. If a company is big and stable, they should be paying dividends. Either way, I should be making more money on my investment. If the stock price is stagnant and the company isn't paying dividends, it would behoove me to move my money elsewhere. My local savings bank would be better and safer.

This is just the investor's viewpoint. The CEO who manages with "increasing shareholder value" as his primary motive gets a lot of applause at the annual shareholder's meeting, but that's it. The first group you must keep happy is the customer. There are a lot more of them than stockholders. The second group you must keep happy is the employee. Happy employees make better products and provided better service, yielding happy customers, which means more profits, which means happy shareholders.

Me, I'm a customer. I want to spend big bucks at my local Apple Store. So bring on that Rev. B. Dual G5!

Sounds like you subscribe to the Enron model of stock price, growth at any cost and the "if the stock price doesn't grow 15% a year -- it's crap" motto.

Just because you think a stock price is stagnant, doesn't mean it's bad.

Heck AT&T/Lucent fragmented in tons of companies in efforts to dump stagnant portions of their companies to focus on growth -- and dumped stability and revenue at the same time.

Bronfman bet the family fortune on getting rid of stagnant stocks in the family portfolio in return for explosive growth and debt -- and destroyed massive portion of their wealth.

So yes, there is more to stock price than growth -- it's called focusing on the health of the company and letting the stock price fall where it may.

Anybody can buy growth with debt and mergers, it takes a different type of CEO to stabilize a company, return it to health, and pay down debt -- though these people typically ran blue chip companies...

[edit -- or they run the corpse of the previous decades growth darling in bankruptcy court.}

 

[Coloredtoad26]

Do these boards ever stay on topic??

 

[aswitcher]

Do these boards ever stay on topic??

They do tend to wander...

 

[Sun Baked]

They do tend to wander...

We just wandered over to taking a look at Apple's stability, but their product update stagnation hurt consumers much more than the stock price.

It's doubtful people will be screaming for Jobs' head like they are for Eisner's head -- though it'll get real loud over at Disney when Euro Disney drops a $2.5 Billion debt turd (and the related quarterly losses) onto Disney's accounting books this year.

What else are we supposed to do during these long periods between updates?

 

[aswitcher]

SNIP

What else are we supposed to do during these long periods between updates?

Speculate. Rumour. Predict.

By the time hardware starts appearing if we do this well we shouldn't be surprised by what appears or what it costs. That suits me because I want to switch and if I had to just ignore macs for 3 more months, waiting for my Mac to appear, I might not switch at all and go buy a dell laptop for half of what I will need to spend to get my shinny new G5PB...

Lets hope that day never comes...

 

[edenwaith]

End of quarter

I went to an Apple reseller yesterday to pick up a new power adapter for my iBook. To my surprise, they were out of stock. I didn't know so many people needed new power converters. The main point is that the sales clerk mentioned that Apple has been a little slow in getting new inventory, in their attempts to dry out their current channels since it is coming close to the end of a quarter. Point being, perhaps Apple is clearing out channels before sending out new products.

 

[aswitcher]

I went to an Apple reseller yesterday to pick up a new power adapter for my iBook. SNIP Point being, perhaps Apple is clearing out channels before sending out new products.

Problem is iBook is the last thing they need to update. iMac, eMac, PowerMac and PowerBook ALL need updates. If the iBook jumps again PowerBooks are going to start to look awfully sickly unless they get price slashes. I can see Apple putting that new G4 chip into the iBooks and a G5 into the Powerbooks to put their laptop range back on track, but now new G4s for iBooks before Powerbooks get their bump.

Then again, why hold up one line for another...

 

[nightcap965]

iBook Spare Adapters

I wonder is because there are other people are like me, with one power adapter at home and another at work so there's less to schlep around (and less winding and stashing to do. I also keep spare connectors for my Palm and my iPod. (Lazy SOB, ain't I?)

I went to an Apple reseller yesterday to pick up a new power adapter for my iBook. To my surprise, they were out of stock. I didn't know so many people needed new power converters. The main point is that the sales clerk mentioned that Apple has been a little slow in getting new inventory, in their attempts to dry out their current channels since it is coming close to the end of a quarter. Point being, perhaps Apple is clearing out channels before sending out new products.

 

[djbahdow01]

Do these boards ever stay on topic??

We got a lot on our minds, Things will stay on topic when new computers come out untill then we talk about everything.

 

[Sped]

Sounds like you subscribe to the Enron model of stock price, growth at any cost and the "if the stock price doesn't grow 15% a year -- it's crap" motto.

Never said that. I was just trying to point out that stock valuation is based on the future. The market predicts where a company will be in 6-12 months.

Just because you think a stock price is stagnant, doesn't mean it's bad.

Never said that either. I didn't make a judgement either way regarding Apple's stock price, but I did point out my opinion as to why the stock has increased in price recently.

So yes, there is more to stock price than growth -- it's called focusing on the health of the company and letting the stock price fall where it may.

You speak of two different things. Whether a CEO focuses on the health of his company or not has nothing to do with how a stock is priced by the market. Stocks are priced by the market based on where the market expects the company to be in the future. Period, end of sentence, good night. Further, a CEO's only goal in life is the price of his company's stock, and again I say period, end of sentence, etc. If Jobs is focusing on the health of his company as you say, then he is doing it to increase stock price. Otherwise, any board of directors worth its salt should sack him.

You have twisted my concern regarding Apples potential inventory drought into your apparent belief that I think Apple is a bad company. I have owned Apple computers since I was in grade school. I love their products. However, facts are facts. The only reason Apple made any money last year was due to investments based on their huge cash hoard. If Apple doesn't start focusing on delivering cutting edge computers in a timely manner and maintaining inventory of said computers, there won't be an Apple left. I am not talking about Apple's demise over the summer, however. I just think a company can only exist so long with decreasing market share, margins, and product availability.

 

[klaus]

Well, it's the 28th, I checked the apple.com store today, and the offer was still there.
1 hour later, I checked it again, and now it says.. hold on :

"Offer extended to june 26, 2004"

Now how do we have to judge this move? Hardware is delayed again? Or do they just want to give us a nice surplus when new hardware comes out..?

 

[klaus]

Just checked the other apple online stores for the memory promotion

US apple store :

Till june 26, promotion valid on entire Powermac, iMac, Xserve line


UK,Belgium, France, etc (Probably entire europe) :

Till 8 may, promotion only valid on current models, each model is listed


Personally, I don't think we should pay a lot of attention to this deal, even if it has been extended or not. It's just a promotion...

 

[aswitcher]

Just checked the other apple online stores for the memory promotion

US apple store :

Till june 26, promotion valid on entire Powermac, iMac, Xserve line

and what 2 days after than WWDC starts...yep a sign that no new Powermacs or new iMacs until WWDC. Seems right to me.

SNIP
Personally, I don't think we should pay a lot of attention to this deal, even if it has been extended or not. It's just a promotion...

Sure but the timing with WWDC is right on.

I think this is a good sign that its 3Ghz G5PMs at WWDC.
Hopefully new form factor G5 iMacs

Steve wants to personally do a big show and dance about this stuff and maximise on Apples current wave of interest...

 

[djbahdow01]

They are definately trying to get rid of stock. New Promotion, Buy a Powermac G5 and a 23" Cinema Screen and get $500 off. Pretty sure they are now trying to get things gone quick.
Also ending on June 26th, but they don't give any speeds for the PM's just like in the RAM promo, so who knows could give new computers in the upcoming weeks, March 30th not sure with this new promotion.

 

[Sun Baked]

Further, a CEO's only goal in life is the price of his company's stock, and again I say period, end of sentence, etc. If Jobs is focusing on the health of his company as you say, then he is doing it to increase stock price. Otherwise, any board of directors worth its salt should sack him.

Sorry sped, that's not the only reason a CEO is there -- anybody can increase a stocks price. Not all CEOs can manage a companies ability to pay debt, especially during a market downturn. Nor do all CEOs have a coherent vision or where the company should be in 10 years, most are too focused on quarterly growth.

Funny how shareholders always want maximized growth, and the CEOs give it to them -- when managed growth is usually a better long term solution.

 

[paulsecic]

This seems like *good* news to me. There's no earthly reason that apple would be unable to supply emacs, imacs, etc. (machines that have been out for months and months with old CPUs) unless they were no longer producing them. And the only reason that they wouldn't be producing them is if they were ramping up production of new models. Right?

edit: never mind. just saw the actual article. It will happen because apple will be filling large educational orders.

I'm not buying anything until major upgrades!

 

[Sped]

anybody can increase a stocks price.

If you really think that anyone can increase stock price, then I don't think you've ever owned a stock.

 

[Sun Baked]

If you really think that anyone can increase stock price, then I don't think you've ever owned a stock.

I've got a couple hundred thousand share sitting in my desk, and I know for a fact that anybody can pump up a stocks price (Since I've seen a stock "Pump and Dumped" firsthand, and have the corpse of the company sitting in my garage to prove it.)

And I've seen way to many companies rise and explode (Rally's, Boston Market, Enron, etc.) to know that a companies ability to meet debt payments is probably more important than the run-up in price -- ask people that lost everything in those companies if they'd rather have had managed growth within the debt load or the explosive growth in stock price.

And for some strange reason, it seems like Donald Trump is going to be fired from Trump Hotels & Casinos for inability to manage debt...

 

[MacRAND]

iPod Mini is amazing value

Forgive me, Apple, I knocked the iPod Mini and its $249 price tag for 4GB memory when it first came out, comparing it to the iPod offering.
I made a mistake, worse, I voiced an opinion purely based on data (I was an idiot) without first examining one in person (nobody was taking them out of the box so you could hold one at first) and checking out the competition (COSTCO, Ultimate Electronics, Fry's, etc.).

Quia peccavi nimis cagitatione, verbo, et opere -
Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.*​

1. iPod Mini is amazingly small and well-built. A Runner/Jogger's dream.
2. Prices and style of the (PC) competition really suck and do not come close (except some are radios and voice recorders, duh? So what!)
3. Compared to regular iPod, their size makes them very attractive, and the $249 price is more than fair. Amazingly portable.
4. Torn between iPod Mini and iPod 30gb. What to do, what to do?

Apple has really done an excellent job of design and providing value...again.
*I have errored (sinned) in thought, word and deed - through my fault, through my fault, through my most grevious fault.

 

[Namacste]

ask people that lost everything in those companies if they'd rather have had managed growth within the debt load or the explosive growth in stock price.

First of all, define "managed". Do you mean a company that meets all of its interest payments, a company that has minimal debt, or a company that has an appropriate mix of financial instruments (both debt and equity) according to its requirements?

Your blanket statements are troublesome. Of course a company that can manage its debt is preferable to one that can't. But you're dealing with a huge grey area here. There are a lot of mitigating factors: i.e. fierce competition, the market environment that would make a "managed" debt structure difficult. Often times the stock market will reward a company based on its prospects. Speculation is tricky, though. But if you get out soon enough, you make yourself a tidy profit. Such an investor would not care a whit about debt. Just because this type of short term trading hasn't happened recently doesn't mean it will never happen again. If there's a way to make money in it, people will continue to do it.

So if your a conservative investor, you'll look at that balance sheet and cash flow statement. When you see that a company is barely making its interest payments then red flags should go up in your head.