Funny how I said it was too late, and that's why I wouldn't do my response until later. Here I am, at 6 AM...
Mr. MacPhisto said:
It really all depends on what we've been talking about in this thread (and what a great thread it has been!) - can FreeScale deliver a viable G4 alternative for the low-end and the laptops - and can they make it inexpensive enough and fast enough for it to be used instead of the G5. The G5 is not a too terribly expensive chip. The Power5 derivaitives are supposed to cost approximately the same as the 970FX. I don't know the prices exactly, but I'm positive they run cheaper than the G4s have been. If they could have a decent chip manufactured for $100-150 then it'd be easier to do something. The SOC design would cut costs for desktops too because the logic board would cost less to design and manufacture. 2GHZ+ G4s on the lower end consumer line (not dirt cheap though)?
I agree that this has been an enlightening and vastly interesting thread. Thanks for the material you've brought to my attention, at the very least.
The question of whether Freescale
can deliver a viable laptop processor is one that I think is almost moot. Of course they can. At issue is the timeframe, the competitive standing of the eventual core, and the cost per unit, since it could very well be that the allegations some have made (that clocking down the G5 and somehow fitting its subsystems in would be cheaper) are actually true. I find this not only unlikely, but ludicrous, without some kind of major revamp of the 970 line that yields even lower heat. Of course, we've been all over that issue already.
I could live with those prices, though I'd like to see the eMacs bumped up in speed a bit, if there is that possibility. It comes back to FreeScale again. If they have a 90nm 74xx available for the next eMac revision with improved chip architecture, greater bandwidth, etc. then I could see the eMac going up to 1.8 GHZ - which would be a pretty sweet deal at $999. It'd be nice to see a 17" 4:3 LCD replace the CRT, but I don't think it's possible to do that yet - not for that kind of money, though prices are still coming down.
Actually, I could see a form-factor revision for the eMac if it were to move to LCD. It's for education, after all, so you want stability and solidity more than anything else, right? Take a page out of the 20th Anniversary Mac and the current PC all-in-one market... You could have the screen fronting a flat enclosure with some CHUNKY and rather solid adjustable legs, with a 1.8-2.0ghz e600 (what's that, like 25-20w?), a slot-loading combo drive, and the RAM and HD accessible from lockable panels in the back. Truly make it an education machine - sturdy, reasonably specced by not a bank breaker, and with a good screen (front the LCD in glass for protection and cleaning). Price it at $999 (generic LCDs are $350 retail for 17" now) and move those things off the shelf.
I haven't seen any numbers lately on how much is costs to manufacture LCDs (usually given out per inch). A quick search indicated that Samsung hoped to manufacture 17" screens for $10 an inch by 2005, but were running ahead of schedule (this was in 2002). If they've come down that far then it would cost $170 for a 17" screen to go in an eMac. It could all hinge on chip prices.
I think it's either not quite that far down, or that insane profits are being taken, even in the PC world.
I'm pretty sure that'll be the way to go. I'm sure my bank account will take a big hit when those get released. Dual 3GHZ with PC4200 starting at $2999 with a 256MB nVidia? Like you said earlier, the margins would shrink - but what a spectactular deal! Of course, increased sales would decrease the impact of the margin reduction.
If they do 256MB, I don't expect it to be standard, and while I think a margin reduction might be a good idea, I don't know what kind of impact it would have on the Apple warchest. I'm most interested in seeing them keep innovating and providing a good experience, not in growing marketshare.
That was my wishlist, not necessarily my "this is realistic" list.
I must say that Apple has done pretty well in trying to get the prices down somewhat. To be honest, I think high G4 prices have prevented bigger drops. Once again, the big IF lies with FreeScale. IF they can get costs down we may see greater reductions in the future. The PowerMac prices will be fine as they are with a revision (and will be a steal). Of Apple could find a way to slice $100 off everything else they'd be in spectacular shape - but I won't hold my breath
As you said, the key is in Freescale. The G4 is not cheap at the kinds of speeds that we're talking about, and I'm hoping that Crolles and the new direction will help fix that situation. If not an outright correction, it would be nice to see it at least swinging in the right direction. I could accept delivery of the chip at current prices or thereabouts, with revisions as the process and design matures.
This is true. Maybe a trade-in program so Apple will give you a certain amount off a future AIO Mac if you bring in your old eMac for "recycling". Probably too much to ask again.
It's the tradeoff of AIO. You get a cheaper machine, but less expandability and you're tied down. It's not like there's a huge market for returned AIO's that they could exploit.
I think and hope so. I'd love to see 64MB options on eMacs and iBooks. The iBooks have very good video cards for consumer end laptops (in fact, better than anything I've seen on high-end PC laptops I've looked at, though I haven't done an exhaustive search), but the PowerBooks have even better cards (except for the 12inch). This upgrade may be limited to the 14" iBook, unless they can find a way to cram 128MB into the 12" PB.
I think a move to at least 64 on the eMac (I'd even support 128 if it didn't hurt the price point too badly), and at least 64 on the iBooks would be a good idea. As ATI and nVidia progress with their cards, I think we might see some significant heat savings. The stats at
this review of the new Radeon X800 show that it clocks higher than nVidia's offerings, performs better in nearly all tests, and has better power-saving features.
You might say GPUs are getting just as interesting as CPUs at the moment.
As you referenced in your prices - 256MB options on PowerMacs. I'd probably allow for 128MB cards on mid-level machines. However, if Apple does have more machines out there that have AGP slots I can see more interest and business in aftermarket Mac videocards. That'd be essential for future upgrades on those mid-market machines.
Rereading the latest reviews of graphics cards, here's my modified wish list for the machines:
eMac - 1.8ghz, 512MB PC3200 RAM, 80GB PATA 7200 RPM, Superdrive, Radeon 9600 64MB, 17" ActiveTFT LCD $999
cMac (3 PCI-X, 1 AGP 8x, 1 Optical, 2 HDs, i.e. Current Towers)
-- 2.0ghz G5, 512MB PC3200, 80GB SATA 7200 RPM, SuperDrive, Radeon 9800 Pro 128 MB, $1399
-- 2.5ghz G5, 512MB PC3200, 120GB SATA 7200 RPM, SuperDrive, Radeon 9800 XT 256MB, $1799
-- 3.0ghz G5, 1GB PC3200, 250GB SATA 7200 RPM, SuperDrive, Radeon X800 Pro 256MB or NV6800GT 256MB, $2,199
PowerMac (3 PCI-X, 2 PCI Extreme, 1 AGP 8x, 4 HDs with SATA RAID or 2 Optical - Deepen the chasis, add four more fans midbay)
-- Dual 2.0ghz G5, 512MB PC4200, 2x 80GB SATA 7200, SuperDrive, Radeon 9800 Pro 256MB or GeForceFX 5950 Ultra 256MB, $1,999
-- Dual 2.5ghz G5, 1GB PC4200, 2x 80GB SATA 10000, SuperDrive, Radeon 9800 Pro 256MB or NV6800GT 256MB, $2,499
-- Dual 3.0ghz G5, 1GB PC4200, 2x 120GB SATA 10000, SuperDrive, Radeon X800 XT 256MB or NV6800 Ultra 256MB, $2,999
As for the eMacs, if they're given a good enough video card to start with (they should be equal to the iBook's). They did upgrade it to the 9200 finally, but it took a while before it equalled the iBook. I wonder if it would be more cost efficient for the eMac and iBook to share logic boards? Obviously the eMac could have a larger enclosure, but would an SOC design on the G4 make this a better alternative - and possibly help to cut costs?
Interesting trivia fact - While not sharing logic boards, the original iMac and IBook did share many components. Try taking apart a dead Bondi sometime and count how many of the components are from latops.