Sidebar Sidebar
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

Predict the 2008 Oscars

The chances of randomly guessing all the winners correctly are much worse than the chances of winning the MegaMillions lottery.

If you were to completely randomly guess all the winners (let's say a computer did a random quick pick for you), your chances of getting all the winners correct would be:

1 in 6,179,809,570,312,500.

That's one in six quadrillion, one hundred and seventy nine trillion, eight hundred and nine billion, five hundred and seventy million, three hundred and twelve thousand, five hundred.
 
It's nearly the end of my day, so I finally had to make up my mind. Votes in the next post below.

Some comments:

* Last year I blew the prediction for Animated Short Film. This year I had trouble deciding that category again. "La Maison en Petits Cubes" has an unusual style that is very artistic. It takes a while to catch on to the story, but has a heartfelt message. In contrast, "Presto" is a fast-paced crowd pleaser, the type that is fun to see more than once. Good for Roger Rabbit fans. I actually liked "Lavatory - Lovestory" better than the others, but I don't think it will win.

* I suspect that Sound Editing and Sound Mixing will go to the same movie, so I'll either be 0 for 2 or 2 for 2.

* I'm never sure how to judge film editing. I saw 4 of the 5 films in that category but just had to guess.

* "Waltz with Bashir" is animated. Can it really win over non-animated foreign films?

* I picked Penélope Cruz for Supporting Actress even though her part wasn't big and her movie came out way back in August. Movies seem to do better when they come out near the end of the year. We'll see.

* Toughest category of all: Live Action Short Film. I liked "The Pig" best, with its cute story and a culture clash that gets magnified by a fear of mortality. But WWII stories like "Toyland" still resonate. For me it was a head vs. heart choice.

* I decided to guess that Slumdog Millionaire won't end up with a split vote for Best Original Song. You can listen to the three nominees here:
Good luck to everyone!
 
--- MacRumors Oscar Ballot ---

Best Actor: Sean Penn for Milk

Best Actress: Kate Winslet for The Reader

Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire

Best Animated Feature Film: Andrew Stanton for Wall-E

Best Animated Short Film: Doug Sweetland for Presto

Best Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Cinematography: Anthony Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire

Best Costume Design: Michael O'Connor for The Duchess

Best Director: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire

Best Documentary Feature: James Marsh and Simon Chinn for Man on Wire

Best Documentary Short Subject: Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde for The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306

Best Film Editing: Chris Dickens for Slumdog Millionaire

Best Foreign Language Film: Ari Folman for Waltz with Bashir - Israel

Best Live Action Short Film: Jochen Alexander Freydank for Toyland

Best Makeup: Greg Cannom for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Original Score: A.R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black for Milk

Best Original Song: A.R. Rahman and Gulzar: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire

Best Picture: Christian Colson for Slumdog Millionaire

Best Sound Editing: Richard King for The Dark Knight

Best Sound Mixing: Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo, and Ed Novick for The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Visual Effects: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, and Craig Barron for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
 
Doctor Q said:
* "Waltz with Bashir" is animated. Can it really win over non-animated foreign films?
Click to expand...

Lots of Jews in the Academy. :D

In all seriousness, I think my pick of The Class will come back to bite me here. Hoping for a surprise, but it doesn't seem too likely.

Other than that, our picks are quite similar again. It just might come down to the Supporting Actress race.
 
Best Actor: Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon

Best Actress: Angelina Jolie for Changeling

Best Adapted Screenplay: Eric Roth and Robin Swicord for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Animated Feature Film: Andrew Stanton for Wall-E

Best Animated Short Film: Doug Sweetland for Presto

Best Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Cinematography: Claudio Miranda for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Costume Design: Catherine Martin for Australia

Best Director: Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon

Best Documentary Feature: Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser for Encounters at the End of the World

Best Documentary Short Subject: Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde for The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306

Best Film Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Foreign Language Film: Laurent Cantet for The Class - France

Best Live Action Short Film: Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont for Manon on the Asphalt

Best Makeup: John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O'Sullivan for The Dark Knight

Best Original Score: Thomas Newman for Wall-E

Best Original Screenplay: Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, and Pete Docter for Wall-E

Best Original Song: Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman: "Down to Earth" from Wall-E

Best Picture: Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, and Ceán Chaffin for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Sound Editing: Richard King for The Dark Knight

Best Sound Mixing: Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, and Ben Burtt for Wall-E


Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams for Doubt

Best Visual Effects: John Nelson, Ben Snow, Daniel Sudick, and Shane Mahan for Iron Man
 
MacRumors voters are unanimous about only two:

Animated Feature Film: Andrew Stanton for Wall-E

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight

If only Heath had been in Wall-E while he had the chance!
 
I don't care who's winning Oscars.

All i care for is the super-cute and pretty Natalie Portman walking down the carpet in a pink dress.
 
MBX said:
All i care for is the super-cute and pretty Natalie Portman in a pink dress.
Click to expand...

Amen, and not in a scurrilous way. She broke my heart in Leon, and that ain't easy.

I heard some radio ads for the show, and everyone seemed to be yelling at someone.

Glad I no longer watch "TV". <ugg>
 
--- MacRumors Oscar Ballot ---

Best Actor: Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Actress: Angelina Jolie for Changeling

Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire

Best Animated Feature Film: Andrew Stanton for Wall-E

Best Animated Short Film: Doug Sweetland for Presto

Best Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Cinematography: Wally Pfister for The Dark Knight

Best Costume Design: Jacqueline West for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Director: Stephen Daldry for The Reader

Best Documentary Feature: James Marsh and Simon Chinn for Man on Wire

Best Documentary Short Subject: Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant for The Final Inch

Best Film Editing: Lee Smith for The Dark Knight

Best Foreign Language Film: Ari Folman for Waltz with Bashir - Israel

Best Live Action Short Film: Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont for Manon on the Asphalt

Best Makeup: Greg Cannom for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Original Score: A.R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh for In Bruges

Best Original Song: A.R. Rahman and Gulzar: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire

Best Picture: Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, and Ceán Chaffin for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Sound Editing: Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood for Wall-E

Best Sound Mixing: Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, and Ben Burtt for Wall-E


Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Visual Effects: Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber, and Paul Franklin for The Dark Knight
 
Mickey Rourke was good, but he pretty much played himself. Sean Penn, however, completely transformed himself and was Harvey Milk. I'm glad he won for Best Actor.
 
it5five said:
Mickey Rourke was good, but he pretty much played himself. Sean Penn, however, completely transformed himself and was Harvey Milk. I'm glad he won for Best Actor.
Click to expand...

I agree - Penn was excellent as Milk. He literally became him.

I have not seen the Wrestler yet - but plan on it. From what I understand he did a great job even if it did parallel where he is in his life now.

There were a lot of good movies this year - I loved almost everything I have seen that was nominated so Im not disappointed in any of the winners.
 
SFStateStudent said:
Winner will get 20/24
Click to expand...
That's the most impressive prediction this year. You were absolute correct! But how did you know? :eek: :confused:

Here are the results. Amazingly, with 17 voters, nobody came out in 17th place!
1st place (20 correct): DoctorQ

2nd place (17 correct): NEENAHBOY

3rd place (14 correct, tie): BoyBach, SFStateStudent

5th place (13 correct, tie): barr08, Rt&Dzine, stringbeanie

8th place (11 correct): mak10

9th place (10 correct, tie): Abstract, EricNau, swiftaw

12th place (8 correct, tie): iTeen*, Jaffa Cake, wvuwhat

15th place (6 correct): pimentoLoaf

16th place (4 correct, tie): ShaunPriest*, themoonisdown09​
* Footnote: Voted on Sunday so the votes weren't in my tracking spreadsheet. I added their results afterwards.

Thanks to everyone who played. I hope you had fun. :)
 
NEENAHBOY said:
Damn, Q, how in the hell did you call Penelope's win?
Click to expand...
There was no overwhelming favorite so I figured that her BAFTA win and the film's win at the Golden Globes were a harbinger of success. Then I flipped my iPhone's coin app. (Viola Davis was my second choice.)

I guessed wrong for Animated Short Film but I'm glad "La Maison en Petits Cubes" won; it deserved it. If you get a chance to see any shorts (or if they appear on the Internet, as some shorts do), see that one and also "Lavatory - Lovestory", plus the Live Action Short named "The Pig".

Mrs. Q and I never did get to see "Doubt" or "The Wrestler". Are they still worth the price of admission? We've already spent a lot on movies!
 
Doubt is great. If you have to choose between that or The Wrestler, go see Doubt. The Wrestler is good, but not so great that you can't wait for the DVD release.
 
Mikey Rouke did an excellent job in the Wrestler and I was sure he was a shoe in. Sean Penn also portrayed his role well but I overlooked him for Rouke/Pitt combo.

I knew Slumdog would clean up this season(can't say that I agree with some of them) but oh well...at least they finally gave Kate Winslet what shes been hurting for from the titanic and it was well deserved.

I'll take your title soon Q ;)

Bless
 
I always do rubbish in this competition :).

I must admit though that I haven't seen (nor heard of) a lot of these films despite being a regular movie-goer. So I simply guessed!
 
ShaunPriest said:
I always do rubbish in this competition :).

I must admit though that I haven't seen (nor heard of) a lot of these films despite being a regular movie-goer. So I simply guessed!
Click to expand...
The best of the Oscar-quality movies usually come out at the end of the year. The rest of the year we get such movies as The Love Guru, You Don't Mess with the Zohan, Space Chimps, and Beverly Hills Chihuahua. Maybe the trick is to stay out of the theaters until late fall.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.
Top Bottom
Back