Pricing Prediction

[Piggie]

Ss version vs gold version of same watches usually have 2-2.5x price difference so i think 1000 vs 2000 could be okay.
This would not be possible on a normal watch but it could be possible with thinner casing found on the apple Watch.

We shall see.

I still feel Apple want a LOT of people to feel they'd like the gold one.
More people that $2000 would be acceptable for.

I could well be wrong, I know some say fans will buy anything by Apple, but people know how much of a change v1 to v2 can be with Apple.

If it was an established product, unlikely to change, then yes, but right away on v1 model?
Tough to call.

 

[mtmac]

Gruber first predicted the watch announcement and everyone said he was wrong. He was right. Now he is predicting a replaceable element and pricing varying from $350 to $5000. He may have the best inside info right now based upon his earlier leak and prediction. I think he's onto something.

See https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1780537/

 

[cariacou]

For some reason I think this will be the pricing Apple chooses, although I have NO idea about the Gold Edition:

Sport (Small) - 349$
Sport (Large) - 399$

Regular (Small) - 449$
Regular (Large) - 499$

Edition - 999$ and above

What do you think?

that seems right to me.


exept that I am willing to bet the bracelet is not included ...
add another $50 for the cheap bracelet+attachments (sport plastic).
or $100+ for the other bracelets.


remember, we're talking about apple products here. a silicon case for the iphone 6 costs $45+tax.


so I'd probably think:

Sport (Small) - 349$ + $49 bracelet
Sport (Large) - 399$ + $49 bracelet

Regular (Small) - 499$ + $99 bracelet
Regular (Large) - 549$ + $99 bracelet

Edition - 3,999$

 

[MarcoCapa]

that seems right to me.


exept that I am willing to bet the bracelet is not included ...
add another $50 for the cheap bracelet+attachments (sport plastic).
or $100+ for the other bracelets.


remember, we're talking about apple products here. a silicon case for the iphone 6 costs $45+tax.


so I'd probably think:

Sport (Small) - 349$ + $49 bracelet
Sport (Large) - 399$ + $49 bracelet

Regular (Small) - 499$ + $99 bracelet
Regular (Large) - 549$ + $99 bracelet

Edition - 3,999$

Your point about bracelet is interesting, but without bracelet the product is not usable.... So a samsung marketing ad would be very simple to make ( a great joke this product and other things like that....)
I think 349$/€ for the sport with the plastic band....
499 for ss one (38 mm) with a standard band ( leather one I think)

The bracelets would be 50$ for the leather like you said and 99 for the metals one...
I really don't think that apple would sell a product that doesn't work without a component ( the bracelet in this case)
If you think this would be like an iPhone without the charger, not possible...
A plastic bracelet for the sport will cost to apple something like 2-5$ to make not more....

 

[Julien]

...exept that I am willing to bet the bracelet is not included ...

I would not bet too much since Apple all but says they come with bands.

 

[SHNXX]

I hope the gold edition is less than 2500... there shouldn't be that much gold in such a thin case.

 

[Julien]

I hope the gold edition is less than 2500... there shouldn't be that much gold in such a thin case.

....and I bet there is nowhere near $3000 worth of cow skin in this purse.

Fashion is expensive and $5000 is just a 1st class airline ticket or a bottle of wine after dinner to the intended Edition market.

 

[SHNXX]

Pricing Prediction

....and I bet there is nowhere near $3000 worth of cow skin in this purse.



Fashion is expensive and $5000 is just a 1st class airline ticket or a bottle of wine after dinner to the intended Edition market.

First class international tickets cost above 10k.
I have high end watches (above $15000).
I understand that market segment.
Nobody wants an apple watch that costs as much as an AP.

 

[Julien]

First class international tickets cost above 10k.
I have high end watches (above $15000).
I understand that market segment.
Nobody wants an apple watch that costs as much as an AP.

Sorry, there's so many naive people here that believe it has to be valuable heirloom or very inexpensive in order to sell to fashion loving people with a decent income.

 

[SHNXX]

Sorry, there's so many naive people here that believe it has to be valuable heirloom or very inexpensive in order to sell to fashion loving people with a decent income.

Yeah. I wS just hoping it will be 2500 because I don't think I will buy the gold one for a lot more knowing it will be worthless in two to three years.

Heirloom is really possible around 5000-8000 so since no smart watch will have similar lasting power, apple's Edition should undercut if it's to have significant demand.

Of course they could just make it a truly limited release and even at $10000, they might be able to sell a few thousand of them. But I assume they will go for a bigger market segment than that.

 

[Piggie]

Yeah. I wS just hoping it will be 2500 because I don't think I will buy the gold one for a lot more knowing it will be worthless in two to three years.

Heirloom is really possible around 5000-8000 so since no smart watch will have similar lasting power, apple's Edition should undercut if it's to have significant demand.

Of course they could just make it a truly limited release and even at $10000, they might be able to sell a few thousand of them. But I assume they will go for a bigger market segment than that.

I have to laugh as the concept of passing on a electronic watch that so old it is no longer supported, can't be updated to the latest os, and can't run any up to date apps, probably have to go to a 3rd party to even find a battery.

 

[SHNXX]

I have to laugh as the concept of passing on a electronic watch that so old it is no longer supported, can't be updated to the latest os, and can't run any up to date apps, probably have to go to a 3rd party to even find a battery.

Sorry if I wasn't clear but I meant 5000-8000 mechanical watches can be heirlooms (typical omegas, tags, Panerais and Rolexes in stainless steel) so no smart watch should be priced in that range if it wants to have any kind of mass appeal.

 

[Piggie]

Sorry if I wasn't clear but I meant 5000-8000 mechanical watches can be heirlooms (typical omegas, tags, Panerais and Rolexes in stainless steel) so no smart watch should be priced in that range if it wants to have any kind of mass appeal.

I don't even think price is a factor.

If you had an old watch from your great grandfather he paid a weeks salary for back in his day, it would be priceless to you.

As I've said elsewhere, I can get this with established tech as a watch from 200 years ago is as much a watch as a new one today. A watch is a watch is a watch.

How long will an Apple watch be valued, esp as there will be millions of the dam things around, all the same other than the metal on the sides of the same electronics, which are so underpowered now they can't run anything worthwhile now.

 

[betabeta]

I think they are still deciding on 4gb vs 8gb. They may just all be standard 8gb, you start offering all these choices and it will cause more issues inventory and too many sku's is not something apple does, at least in the past.

Sport 349.99 8gb 38mm cost? 150 or less?
Sport 399.00 8gb 42mm

Stainless steel 549.00 16gb sport band 38mm. Might cost apple 175
Stainless steel 599.00 16gb sport band 42mm
Stainless steel 649.00 16gb leather or link band 38 mm
Stainless steel 699.00 16gb leather or link band 42 mm
Stainless steel 749.00 16gb Milanese band 38mm
Stainless steel 799.00 16gb Milanese band 42mm

Edition gold 1999.00-2499.00 and it will probably cost apple 1000

I don't see the gold watch being 5000, mainly because the next model will be wanted by most who buy this one, so in reality Apple can sell new models every year for this price to a market much larger than if it was 5 grand. It's a very good starting price, I would even give it a thought since the after market will be active and I could see a fair price that would allow me to buy the next one. At 5 grand I'm out, no interest, not for me or a gift. 2 grand I would certainly think about it.

 

[megadon]

Based on discussions in other threads, IMO, the gold "case" is just going to be a very very thin 18k "case" that wraps around the internals.

You can bet that apples team of lawyers and their marketing team have discussed how to market the 18k watch to make it sound solid, but I doubt anyone will pay for a watch that's goin to be out of date in one year.

You guys are comparing Nissan skyline gt-r's to ferrari's (apple watch and rolex)

 

[Julien]

Based on discussions in other threads, IMO, the gold "case" is just going to be a very very thin 18k "case" that wraps around the internals.

You can bet that apples team of lawyers and their marketing team have discussed how to market the 18k watch to make it sound solid, but I doubt anyone will pay for a watch that's goin to be out of date in one year.

You guys are comparing Nissan skyline gt-r's to ferrari's (apple watch and rolex)

Sold, substantial (I bet 15g to 20g) and not a wrap.

 

[screensaver400]

People who own high-end watches expect, and do, pay $300-$1,000 every five years to overhaul their watches. This includes disassembling them, cleaning them up, replacing any damaged parts, and so on.

If Apple did reach into the $5,000+ market with the Edition line, they could offer "trade in and upgrade" program. You'd be able to upgrade your Edition every to the newest model every, say, 2 years, for $500. This would be in line with the current high-end watch market. Apple would recycle the gold in the old device to recoup part of the cost.

This would make people more likely to view an Apple Watch Edition as an "investment" (i.e., something with long-term value), rather than a disposable piece of consumer electronics.

Plus, the math could work out nicely for Apple. Hypothetically (these are laughably incomplete figures---just a proof of concept):

Selling Price of Edition: $5000
-Standard Watch Price: $350
-Additional Cost of Gold: $1000
=Profit on Initial Sale: $3650

Upgrade Cost of Edition: $500
+Earnings from Recycled Gold: $900
-Cost of Production of New Edition: $1350
=Profit on Upgrade: $50

 

[megadon]

Sold, substantial (I bet 15g to 20g) and not a wrap.

Image

Ya, I'm just doing some pure speculation.

Then again, I'm a guy who sees hubolt as a lower quality AP.

So when I think "time piece" I think high quality from a company that has a history in that segment.

I just can't get my head around the idea of how a watch made in china from a tech company could be compared to the work of an established Swiss watchmaker.

I know a Lexus LFA is a good quality car that uses fine materials and performs very well, but it's still a Lexus and at a price of 375k, I'd rather have a Ferrari that has a long history in the segment.

They only way apple can charge the 5 to 10k price people are talking about is if they actually make a very limited number of these watches.

But even then, people who buy limited edition luxury items like a la Ferrari, Mclaren f1 or p1 know they car is going to become and instant collectors item and be worth more than what they paid for.

The fact that the edition watch offers no extra utility and is going to devalue considerably more than any other watch at a 10k price point makes me think of a gold honda civic selling for 200k. If that's the case why wouldn't apple just make a gold iPad and charge 75k? Or a gold version of all their products?

But again, it's all speculation and well see when the prices are announced.

 

[Julien]

Ya, I'm just doing some pure speculation.



....They only way apple can charge the 5 to 10k price people are talking about is if they actually make a very limited number of these watches...

I have and do predict the following in sales.

Sport 75%
Watch 20%
Edition 5%

The Edition is basically a selling tool for the Sport (and to the Watch). You will see the Edition all over Sports Center and TMZ stocking the demand for the functionally identical Sport to the masses.

For most who buy the Edition it will just be a nominal purchase of an insignificant finical costs to them. It will cost them far less percentage of their disposable income than the Sport does us.

 

[Piggie]

Sold, substantial (I bet 15g to 20g) and not a wrap.

Image

Remember, there is no real front or back really, it's just side, and not convinced its as thick as it looks in that pic as it could be wrapped around.

Let's say for argument 20g of 18k Gold, that's say $600

Where they are getting $5000 from I have no idea

 

[SHNXX]

Pricing Prediction

People who own high-end watches expect, and do, pay $300-$1,000 every five years to overhaul their watches. This includes disassembling them, cleaning them up, replacing any damaged parts, and so on.

If Apple did reach into the $5,000+ market with the Edition line, they could offer "trade in and upgrade" program. You'd be able to upgrade your Edition every to the newest model every, say, 2 years, for $500. This would be in line with the current high-end watch market. Apple would recycle the gold in the old device to recoup part of the cost.

This would make people more likely to view an Apple Watch Edition as an "investment" (i.e., something with long-term value), rather than a disposable piece of consumer electronics.

Plus, the math could work out nicely for Apple. Hypothetically (these are laughably incomplete figures---just a proof of concept):

Selling Price of Edition: $5000
-Standard Watch Price: $350
-Additional Cost of Gold: $1000
=Profit on Initial Sale: $3650

Upgrade Cost of Edition: $500
+Earnings from Recycled Gold: $900
-Cost of Production of New Edition: $1350
=Profit on Upgrade: $50

Actually no.
Servicing of a gold watch from a Patek/VC/AP takes a very long time (could be as long as 6months) and the basic service does not include replacement of parts.
If there are scratches or dings on the gold case, they would simply polish it or leave it.
If they were to provide new parts, that would be a very significant cost.
Basic service for a uncomplicated watch should cost a little more than 1k usd but for complications, it costs more.
A full new gold case I guess would cost in the 5-10k, if not more so really there is nothing in high end watch world that resembles what you say.

----------

Ya, I'm just doing some pure speculation.



Then again, I'm a guy who sees hubolt as a lower quality AP.



So when I think "time piece" I think high quality from a company that has a history in that segment.



I just can't get my head around the idea of how a watch made in china from a tech company could be compared to the work of an established Swiss watchmaker.



I know a Lexus LFA is a good quality car that uses fine materials and performs very well, but it's still a Lexus and at a price of 375k, I'd rather have a Ferrari that has a long history in the segment.



They only way apple can charge the 5 to 10k price people are talking about is if they actually make a very limited number of these watches.



But even then, people who buy limited edition luxury items like a la Ferrari, Mclaren f1 or p1 know they car is going to become and instant collectors item and be worth more than what they paid for.



The fact that the edition watch offers no extra utility and is going to devalue considerably more than any other watch at a 10k price point makes me think of a gold honda civic selling for 200k. If that's the case why wouldn't apple just make a gold iPad and charge 75k? Or a gold version of all their products?



But again, it's all speculation and well see when the prices are announced.

Yeah this is why I don't think the price will be anywhere near 10000.

For 10000, apple just cannot be a compelling proposition, except as a show off photo on Instagram by some super rich young person.
Now for 5000, it will have a broader audience, but still it would probably feel too expensive to most wealthy people who regularly buy watches above $10k because they know it's a rotten deal that will become worthless in a few years.
At around 3000-4000, it starts having some value since it will be one of the cheapest gold case watches and it becomes an attainable status symbol for those who are not wealthy and an interesting novelty watch for even high end watch owners, albeit one with very poor resale value.

For less than 3000, i think there will be pretty significant demand as it reaches territory of lower end mechanical or battery watches whose innards are nothing special anyway.

 

[Piggie]

I simply don't think it's possible, sorry.

Given the watch is a known $350 value item. If that's the base model, then it cannot cost/be worth any more.

The only difference in the item is the shell/case and the strap, and perhaps it comes in a nicer box.

There is no way even Apple could substitute 5 dollars of steel, with 600 dollars of gold, and ramp the price up from 350 to 5000

 

[SHNXX]

I simply don't think it's possible, sorry.

Given the watch is a known $350 value item. If that's the base model, then it cannot cost/be worth any more.

The only difference in the item is the shell/case and the strap, and perhaps it comes in a nicer box.

There is no way even Apple could substitute 5 dollars of steel, with 600 dollars of gold, and ramp the price up from 350 to 5000

Its only possible if the watch is a very limited edition with very few customers.

 

[screensaver400]

Actually no.
Servicing of a gold watch from a Patek/VC/AP takes a very long time (could be as long as 6months) and the basic service does not include replacement of parts.
If there are scratches or dings on the gold case, they would simply polish it or leave it.
If they were to provide new parts, that would be a very significant cost.
Basic service for a uncomplicated watch should cost a little more than 1k usd but for complications, it costs more.
A full new gold case I guess would cost in the 5-10k, if not more so really there is nothing in high end watch world that resembles what you say.

No no. I'm not saying that a high end watch service includes a full new gold case. I'm simply pointing out that high end watch owners are comfortable with $300-$1000 in maintenance charges every few years to keep their watches working well. In terms of pricing, I can't speak to Patek Philippe. My experience is only with Rolex. Here's an example of Rolex pricing: http://rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=258428

In short, $300 for third party service, $700 for a RSC-provided overhaul, $1000+ if extra parts need to be replaced.

On a separate but related note, I described a financial model for how Apple could provide the sort of "maintenance" (really, trade in) that would be applicable to the Apple Watch, while having an achievable cost for Apple.

 

[SHNXX]

No no. I'm not saying that a high end watch service includes a full new gold case. I'm simply pointing out that high end watch owners are comfortable with $300-$1000 in maintenance charges every few years to keep their watches working well. In terms of pricing, I can't speak to Patek Philippe. My experience is only with Rolex. Here's an example of Rolex pricing: http://rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=258428

In short, $300 for third party service, $700 for a RSC-provided overhaul, $1000+ if extra parts need to be replaced.

On a separate but related note, I described a financial model for how Apple could provide the sort of "maintenance" (really, trade in) that would be applicable to the Apple Watch, while having an achievable cost for Apple.

I know I wouldn't be interested in doing that with an Apple product.
Are you interested in buying something like that?

It's simpler to just sell it at a reasonable price to a limited number of people, who know that their apple watch will be almost worthless in 2-5 years.