Production Challenges to 'Delay' Launches of iPhone 5S, Lower-Cost iPhone and New iPad Mini?

[Apple Corps]

chadley.chad - just gave you a +1 vote.

Too many people are explaining away the current Apple doldrums with the go slow and get it right.

The competition is ramping up and Apple is mucking about. Agree with you fully, Apple had tremendous momentum and under Tim Cook's leadership their lead is being squandered.

 

[BaldiMac]

Too many people are explaining away the current Apple doldrums with the go slow and get it right.

The competition is ramping up and Apple is mucking about. Agree with you fully, Apple had tremendous momentum and under Tim Cook's leadership their lead is being squandered.

What lead has Apple squandered under Tim Cook?

Your argument boils down to everything good Apple has done since Cook took over is because of Jobs and everything bad Apple has done is Cook's fault and somehow disastrous for the company (even if that's not reflected in any actual metrics.)

At some point, people need to accept that Apple's FY2012 was a spike. An outlier. Not something that should be expected to continue. Can Apple get back to that level? Absolutely. But they shouldn't be expected to maintain that kind of growth indefinitely.

Apple's stock is actually up 25% since Cook took over. Look at a graph of Apple's market cap over the last five years. Take out the FY2012 spike, and Apple has maintained a relatively consistent growth rate throughout the transition to Cook as CEO.

FY2012 was a spectacular climax to the iPhone growth trajectory brought on by a perfect storm of factors including the extended life of the iPhone 4 leading to massive pent up demand coupled with aggressive expansion into lucrative markets (and an extra week to the holiday quarter). Comparing anything to 2011 holiday quarter is like competing with a ringer.

 

[Apple Corps]

BaldiMac - Your position boils down to having your head in the sand over what is happening now that Cook has to stand on his own - it ain't pretty.

Look at the FACTS - those are pretty clear as to the performance trend Apple is on under Cook. Read the MacRumors list of problems / issues. Stock is down 40% from its high, etc, etc. Not going to list all the issues that I and others have done many times already.

You are a Tim Cook fan - I am not and am convinced he is the embodiment of the Peter Principle - an empty suit in over his head.

We see it very differently.

 

[BaldiMac]

Look at the FACTS - those are pretty clear as to the performance trend Apple is on under Cook.

I'll look at any facts you like. Just don't cherry pick your comparisons to fit your point.

Read the MacRumors list of problems / issues.

Why? Is this supposed to be one of your "FACTS"? How do they compare to problems/issues under the previous CEO. Or do we have to pretend that there weren't any?

Stock is down 40% from its high, etc, etc.

A high reached under Tim Cook. And again, still up 25% since he took over. And still the biggest market cap in the world.

Not going to list all the issues that I and others have done many times already.

Good. Because you've posted the same exact thing every post for 2 months.

You are a Tim Cook fan

No, I'm not.

I am not and am convinced he is the embodiment of the Peter Principle - an empty suit in over his head.

We'll see. Strong growth after 18 months on the job seems like a pretty good start.

We see it very differently.

Yep.

 

[Rogifan]

chadley.chad - just gave you a +1 vote.

Too many people are explaining away the current Apple doldrums with the go slow and get it right.

The competition is ramping up and Apple is mucking about. Agree with you fully, Apple had tremendous momentum and under Tim Cook's leadership their lead is being squandered.

The competiton is ramping up? No they're just throwing ***** out there and seeing what sticks. With Samsung it's let's throw every conceivable screen size out there, spend $12B on advertising and let the tech press call it innovation.

 

[BaldiMac]

The competiton is ramping up? No they're just throwing ***** out there and seeing what sticks. With Samsung it's let's throw every conceivable screen size out there, spend $12B on advertising and let the tech press call it innovation.

https://twitter.com/dkdsgn/status/322342508912852992

 

[Apple Corps]

I'll look at any facts you like. Just don't cherry pick your comparisons to fit your point.



Why? Is this supposed to be one of your "FACTS"? How do they compare to problems/issues under the previous CEO. Or do we have to pretend that there weren't any?



A high reached under Tim Cook. And again, still up 25% since he took over. And still the biggest market cap in the world.



Good. Because you've posted the same exact thing every post for 2 months.



No, I'm not.



We'll see. Strong growth after 18 months on the job seems like a pretty good start.



Yep.

Commenting on a 40% loss in shareholder value over the past 7 months and a $2 billion cost overrun is not cherry picking - those are significant. The Browett hiring / firing fiasco, non-compliance with Chinese warranty regulations, water damage warranty settlement (don't know who owns warranty responsibility but they ultimately report to Tim). The entire dividend SEC proxy gaff - on and on - all reported facts. There is some good news for sure - but way too many mistakes = stock impact.

Many of the MacRumors front page items are negative and are facts.

We will look at the stock price in another week or so after the quarterly call.

You bet I am posting the issues and they are NOT all the same thing - there are new negative additions almost daily. Some are big, some are much smaller, but they are painting a PERFORMANCE TREND to me. Simply posting that Tim Cook is not performing without one's point of view is not good.

Well, to me at least, you sound like a Tim Cook fan.

Lets continue after April 23.

 

[Apple Corps]

The competiton is ramping up? No they're just throwing ***** out there and seeing what sticks. With Samsung it's let's throw every conceivable screen size out there, spend $12B on advertising and let the tech press call it innovation.

I am not a SAMSUNG fan in any way. My point is that Apple had little competition when the original iPhone was released. I was at the event and was awed by the phone rotating within the glass cylinder - it was magic.

Fast forward several years and there is way more competition. Some of it will fail, some will have some success, and a few may be a hit. Apple no longer has a monopoly on the smart phone - even though they defined the market.

Let us see what we learn on April 23.

 

[twoodcc]

i really hope there isn't a big delay. apple really needs to get more products out soon.

 

[BaldiMac]

Commenting on a 40% loss in shareholder value over the past 7 months [...] is not cherry picking - those are significant.

It's cherry picking if you ignore that he also presided over 100+% gain in shareholder value right before that. Again, for a net 25% gain since he took over.

And, of course, you have to ignore the explanation that I posted earlier.

and a $2 billion cost overrun

That's just FUD. There is no cost overrun on the new building. It's simply now estimated to cost more to build than the initial estimates. Almost nothing to do with Tim Cook.

The Browett hiring / firing fiasco

The Papermaster hiring / firing fiasco. Oh, wait.

(Fiasco? Did this affect Apple at all?)

non-compliance with Chinese warranty regulations, water damage warranty settlement (don't know who owns warranty responsibility but they ultimately report to Tim). The entire dividend SEC proxy gaff - on and on - all reported facts. There is some good news for sure - but way too many mistakes = stock impact.

Many of the MacRumors front page items are negative and are facts.

And many negative things have happened in every year of Apple's resurgence. Most of it is just noise.

We will look at the stock price in another week or so after the quarterly call.

I'd rather look in a few years. Short term, reactionary investment isn't worth discussing when you are talking about a company's overall health.

Besides, I already expect earnings to barely make or miss the low end of Apple's projections. Not because of lack of execution, but because they have reached a point in the iPhone and iPad markets where they are dominating the price points that they compete at. Little room for the growth that we've seen in the past.

As with the iPad mini, Apple has reached the point that Jobs had talked about where they need to go for market share instead of profits. Hence all the rumors of a low price entry into the iPhone market.

Eventually, we'll see them enter a new market when they are ready. If they execute those two things well, then Apple is in good hands. If not, that's when you start the "fire Tim Cook" chant. Everything that's happened under Cook to date is just a progression through the roadmap. Irrelevant in the long run.

 

[Apple Corps]

BaldiMac - a $2 billion overrun on a $3 billion building is FUD ???? It has everything to do with Tim Cook - he is the CEO. You clearly do not have any substantive executive line corporate experience.

Browett fiasco - impacted retail operations - disruption and a distraction for Apple and Cook. More workload for Cook as no replacement on board yet.

Little room for growth? You must be kidding - ever heard of China Mobile with over 720 MILLION subscribers. Even a small % capture would dwarf US sales. That would allow for price point challenges. Oh wait, Apple, with $140 billion in cash and not knowing how to use it, under Tim Cooks leadership, has not figured out how to strike a deal with one of the chip fabs to produce a CM compatible chip and pen a deal.

You must be slurping Cupertino KOLAID by the gallon. And your econ 101 treatise on stock investing is so basic as to be useless. I hold thousands of Apple shares in my portfolio, most with very low cost basis. Great returns but Cook is blowing the success trajectory. You are already making advance excuses for more bad news.

 

[yow.]

powerVR 6 series (rogue) GPU due 3Q 2013, therefore...

The powerVR 6 series (rogue) GPU is supposedly slated to appear in consumer devices in 3Q. Which sometimes means Sept 30...

Because Apple isn't due for a process shrink til next year (unless they team with Intel?); and their CPU is already similar to cortex-A15, it seems they have few other ways to improve the central powerhouse than to move to Rogue.

Although they could go quad-core CPU, it's notoriously difficult to get actual performance increases from that. They could increase the number of GPU cores, but this will drain battery power. I suppose they could decrease the clock speed, and get increase both performance and battery life, at the cost of more physical silicon - but with Rogue due close to a potential release date, I think they'll go with that.

I mean, I'm hoping...

 

[BaldiMac]

BaldiMac - a $2 billion overrun on a $3 billion building is FUD ???? It has everything to do with Tim Cook - he is the CEO. You clearly do not have any substantive executive line corporate experience.

Yep. FUD. There is no cost overrun, because they haven't even broke ground. The fact that the plans designed under Jobs are going to cost more to implement than the initial estimates has nothing to do with Cook. The report was that Cook was considering ways to reduce costs.

Browett fiasco - impacted retail operations - disruption and a distraction for Apple and Cook. More workload for Cook as no replacement on board yet.

What, exactly, was the impact on Apple as a whole?

Little room for growth? You must be kidding - ever heard of China Mobile with over 720 MILLION subscribers. Even a small % capture would dwarf US sales. That would allow for price point challenges. Oh wait, Apple, with $140 billion in cash and not knowing how to use it, under Tim Cooks leadership, has not figured out how to strike a deal with one of the chip fabs to produce a CM compatible chip and pen a deal.

And yet, you think this is a failure on Cook's part despite not knowing any details as to why.

And your econ 101 treatise on stock investing is so basic as to be useless.

I didn't give any investing advice, so now you are just being petty.

I hold thousands of Apple shares in my portfolio, most with very low cost basis.

You've mentioned that a few times now. I don't care even if it's true.

 

[Apple Corps]

Yep. FUD. There is no cost overrun, because they haven't even broke ground. The fact that the plans designed under Jobs are going to cost more to implement than the initial estimates has nothing to do with Cook. The report was that Cook was considering ways to reduce costs.

Lack of control - you lack an understanding of the CEO role - he owns it. Not knowing a budgeted project has balooned around 70% shows poor planning and review throughout the process.


What, exactly, was the impact on Apple as a whole?

Tim Cook spending time hiring Browett, orienting Browett, firing Browett and paying millions to him for zippo performance, and now having to find a replacement and do the job in the meantime.


And yet, you think this is a failure on Cook's part despite not knowing any details as to why.

You need to review the role of a CEO - do you have any business experience at the executive level?


I didn't give any investing advice, so now you are just being petty.

I said it was a treatise - "I'd rather look in a few years. Short term, reactionary investment isn't worth discussing when you are talking about a company's overall health." It is critically worth review as a trend develops.


You've mentioned that a few times now. I don't care even if it's true.

Don't care if you care or not - do you have investment performance to relate to or are you just an armchair commentator?

 

[BaldiMac]

Your position boils down to having your head in the sand over what is happening

You are a Tim Cook fan

You clearly do not have any substantive executive line corporate experience.

You must be slurping Cupertino KOLAID by the gallon. And your econ 101 treatise on stock investing is so basic as to be useless.

you lack an understanding of the CEO role

do you have any business experience at the executive level?

I'll let my argument stand on it's own. Unverifiable claims of experience or investment performance add nothing to the discussion.

Lack of control [snip] he owns it. Not knowing a budgeted project has balooned around 70% shows poor planning and review throughout the process.

You just made all of that up.

Tim Cook spending time hiring Browett, orienting Browett, firing Browett and paying millions to him for zippo performance, and now having to find a replacement and do the job in the meantime.

Pennies. And not something that hasn't happened before Cook.

It is critically worth review as a trend develops.

Absolutely.

 

[Apple Corps]

I'll let my argument stand on it's own. Unverifiable claims of experience or investment performance add nothing to the discussion.



You just made all of that up.



Pennies. And not something that hasn't happened before Cook.



Absolutely.

Well, my claims of investment performance and senior executive experience are 100% verifiable. If you wanted to roll some big bucks into a third party escrow pending verification you would lose whatever you put up. What they add to the discussion is REAL WORLD EXPERIENCE & PERFORMANCE on the topics at hand. Without those, one is just proffering an inexperienced opinion.

I've made nothing up on the new Campus ballooning over budget and also a year later on the projected move in = poor control. Anyone with experience understands that.

The impact of the Browett fiasco is more than pennies (millions of $$ for zippo) - millions add up to billions before you know it. The bigger issue is the time Cook has to spend "leading" (and I use that word sparingly in the case of Tim Cook) retail. Just because hiring failures have happened before does not eliminate as another point of concern re Tim Cook's performance. Most everybody on the topic knew of Dixon's horrible reputation under Browett - what was Cook thinking?

Today we see the Adobe announcement on LR5 with some new sophisticated features. Apertur gets longer in the tooth and the gap widens. Aperture gets updated today for bug corrections - pathetic.

Lets see what April 23 brings - this horse has been run hard and we simply disagree.

 

[BaldiMac]

Well, my claims of investment performance and senior executive experience are 100% verifiable. If you wanted to roll some big bucks into a third party escrow pending verification you would lose whatever you put up. What they add to the discussion is REAL WORLD EXPERIENCE & PERFORMANCE on the topics at hand. Without those, one is just proffering an inexperienced opinion.

We are in a discussion forum, not a pissing contest. You know nothing about me, I know nothing about you. I simply disagree with your argument.

I've made nothing up on the new Campus ballooning over budget and also a year later on the projected move in = poor control. Anyone with experience understands that.

You made up the part about Cook being unaware of the increasing cost estimates. And you made up the part about the increase coming from poor planning and review under Cook.

Did it ever occur to you that the initial estimates put together under Jobs were simply wrong? As implied by the recent article on this site.

The impact of the Browett fiasco is more than pennies (millions of $$ for zippo) - millions add up to billions before you know it. The bigger issue is the time Cook has to spend "leading" (and I use that word sparingly in the case of Tim Cook) retail. Just because hiring failures have happened before does not eliminate as another point of concern re Tim Cook's performance. Most everybody on the topic knew of Dixon's horrible reputation under Browett - what was Cook thinking?

The cost is insignificant to Apple. The decision to hire Browett is a concern, but it needs to be put in context. How many good to great hiring decisions has Cook made over the years? I don't have enough information to make an educated judgement.

Today we see the Adobe announcement on LR5 with some new sophisticated features. Apertur gets longer in the tooth and the gap widens. Aperture gets updated today for bug corrections - pathetic.

Again, you are arguing over pennies. And Apple started neglecting the pro customer long before Cook took over.

 

[Apple Corps]

I know a lot a lot about you from your posts. One thing is that you don't grasp the role of a CEO at all. You state that I "made up" things about Cook.

EVERYTHING that happens at Apple is the ultimate responsibility of the CEO - good or bad. A $3 billion project ballooning to $5 billion before ground has broken is the responsibility of Cook. He has been in the CEO / COO role now for well over 2 years.

You keep trying to reroute the Browett argument to a purely financial argument. It did WASTE millions of $$$ but wasted time. He was hired as the head of retail - a very important position and bad hire. Anyone watching this train wreck knew about Dixon's horrible performance under Browett except for Tim Cook. That = horrible performance on his part.

Aperture is not about pennies - it is about Apple, under Tim Cook, not being able to push out new, exciting products - get it?

 

[BaldiMac]

I know a lot a lot about you from your posts. One thing is that you don't grasp the role of a CEO at all.

And you are wrong. What you are trying to do is simply attack the speaker instead of the argument.

You state that I "made up" things about Cook.

I stated exactly what you made up.

EVERYTHING that happens at Apple is the ultimate responsibility of the CEO - good or bad. A $3 billion project ballooning to $5 billion before ground has broken is the responsibility of Cook. He has been in the CEO / COO role now for well over 2 years.

Why did you continue to ignore the likelihood that the initial estimate (under Jobs) was simply wrong?

You keep trying to reroute the Browett argument to a purely financial argument. It did WASTE millions of $$$ but wasted time. He was hired as the head of retail - a very important position and bad hire. Anyone watching this train wreck knew about Dixon's horrible performance under Browett except for Tim Cook. That = horrible performance on his part.

I'm not arguing that it was a bad decision. But, despite your hyperbole, you have not quantified this "horrible performance" at all. Retail performance is doing well and expansion is on track.

Aperture is not about pennies - it is about Apple, under Tim Cook, not being able to push out new, exciting products - get it?

And you'll ignore or dismiss any evidence to the contrary. What Apple hasn't done is enter into new product markets or market segments with the significant exception of the iPad mini. But that is not something that they have ever done on an annual basis.

Like I said, I'm reserving my judgement on Cook until Apple unveils their plans 1) move towards the lower end of the smartphone, and 2) enter a new market. If they fail in either/both of these efforts then I'd start questioning Apple's leadership.

 

[Apple Corps]

So - Apple down ANOTHER $20 right now - the market is clear on what it thinks.

Waiting until they fail in either or both of those areas to start flagging the performance problem is a bit late - don't ya think?

 

[SpyderBite]

Give me a bigger screen and WIDER one while you're at it.

Luckily they've already introduced and released this version for you. Its called the iPad.

 

[BaldiMac]

So - Apple down ANOTHER $20 right now - the market is clear on what it thinks.

What the market thinks and reality are not always the same thing.

Waiting until they fail in either or both of those areas to start flagging the performance problem is a bit late - don't ya think?

Obviously not. Was I not clear?

 

[Apple Corps]

The market IS reality from the investor perspective.

 

[Apple Corps]

Apple is now DOWN $24 - commentary is they will miss their own guidance and no new products hitting the market.

It is now trading at the same level as when Cook took over the CEO role - pathetic.

 

[BaldiMac]

The market IS reality from the investor perspective.

Sure, but that's not the perspective I am looking at. I plainly stated that I wasn't talking about short term investment. If that's what's important to you, than Apple has sucked for you the last few months. I don't think that's what is important to Apple or the BoD. It certainly isn't important to me.

Apple's secrecy has advantages and disadvantages. Part of the reason for the spike in their stock in FY2012 was that their strategy was pretty clear. And thus relatively predictable to investors. As growth slows with the iPhone, investors don't know where Apple is going next. The ability of the team to enter new product markets without Jobs is an unknown.

Investors don't like unknowns, but that doesn't mean that the team isn't executing behind closed doors. Which is why I suggested waiting to see what they come up with before calling for the angry mob.