No doubt. We may get some confirmation of this in about a week when the 14s arrive and we learn which phone will occupy the $499 price point for the next 12 months. Some (I.e. not an exhaustive list) possibilities are:
1. The 11 gets a stay of execution and sticks around for another year instead of getting pushed out as would normally happen to the bottom rung legacy phone. Taking one for the team, the 12 Mini gets the axe instead.
2. The 12 Mini goes from $599 to $499 which would confirm your hypothesis while the 11 exits on schedule.
3. Both the 11 and 12 Mini go away, and there is no $499 iPhone for the next year. Instead, there is a bigger ($170) gap between the lowest priced legacy phone(s) and the SE.
There has been more than one report on SE 2022 sales being somewhat abysmal. This is likely at least in some part because of the legacy form factor being too long in the tooth now. At some point you need to move to a more modern design, or you just won’t find enough people wiling to pony up, even at a ~$400 price.