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My only point was that Apple is steadily out pacing it's competitors for a very good reason, it's elegant simplicity in design.

But they're not though. Apple shipments in the US grew by 31.3% in the US last year, HP grew by 18.8%. That sounds good until you realise Apple sold 4.1 million units to HP's 16.8 million and that the increases were 1 million and 2.5 million respectively.

And I do think that they will have majority share by 2010 (as an individual manufacturer vs other individual manufacturers. In other words, more Apple PC's than HP PCs or than Toshiba PCs, not of Windows-based PCs overall... yet.)

Sorry, not a chance. The figures don't stack up because they're so far behind HP and Dell.

But I think we are all getting way off topic and there are tons of other threads that deal with this particular subject better than I have here...

Fair enough.
 
But they're not though. Apple shipments in the US grew by 31.3% in the US last year, HP grew by 18.8%. That sounds good until you realise Apple sold 4.1 million units to HP's 16.8 million and that the increases were 1 million and 2.5 million respectively.



Sorry, not a chance. The figures don't stack up because they're so far behind HP and Dell.



Fair enough.

Boy, you just don't get it or you're just a true blue Apple hater. Looking at the percentages as well as the current trend in Apple's high customer satisfaction and other PC user's low satisfaction, if Apple continues to grow percentage wise while other's (such as HP) decline, yes, there is at least a chance.

Man I just hate it when some of you think you have such acute perception that you can definitively say absolutely "not a chance" or "Never!" NONE of us can say absolutely one way or another, I am just making my own prediction but for you to say not a chance sounds like the same people that said the iPhone did not have a chance to sell even a small bit let alone sell as well as it already has.

As I already admitted, I could be wrong and part of me is just playing devils advocate to those of you that always want to say "Apple will never...." but sorry, there is ALWAYS a chance. I guess we'll all just wait and see.
 
Boy, you just don't get it or you're just a true blue Apple hater. Looking at the percentages as well as the current trend in Apple's high customer satisfaction and other PC user's low satisfaction, if Apple continues to grow percentage wise while other's (such as HP) decline, yes, there is at least a chance.

Man I just hate it when some of you think you have such acute perception that you can definitively say absolutely "not a chance" or "Never!" NONE of us can say absolutely one way or another, I am just making my own prediction but for you to say not a chance sounds like the same people that said the iPhone did not have a chance to sell even a small bit let alone sell as well as it already has.

As I already admitted, I could be wrong and part of me is just playing devils advocate to those of you that always want to say "Apple will never...." but sorry, there is ALWAYS a chance. I guess we'll all just wait and see.

Genshi,

I am not an Apple hater. I got my first Mac in 1986... 22 years ago. When did you get your first one?

You stated Apple would probably have majority market share by 2010, if not sooner. The reality is much, much different. What you call a hater, I call a realist.

The vast majority of market share reports that come out are retail only, and US based only. Most do not include educational sales, enterprise sales, online sales (such as Dell), etc. Most are limited to one revenue stream, in one country.

When you take all that into consideration, numbers like "30% growth", "18% increase in retail sales", etc mean very little in terms of overall market share. Look at BongoBanger's stats above regarding number of Macs sold versus number of HP units sold last year. HP had a 400% lead in sales in 2007. That's just HP, let alone all the other PC retailers.

I can absolutely say, with full conviction, that there is no way Apple will have a majority market share by 2010... which was your point I was saying no to.

BongoBanger has given you a good analysis of the marketshare. There is no hate there, just a realistic viewpoint of the numbers.
 
Genshi,

I am not an Apple hater. I got my first Mac in 1986... 22 years ago. When did you get your first one?

You stated Apple would probably have majority market share by 2010, if not sooner. The reality is much, much different. What you call a hater, I call a realist.

The vast majority of market share reports that come out are retail only, and US based only. Most do not include educational sales, enterprise sales, online sales (such as Dell), etc. Most are limited to one revenue stream, in one country.

When you take all that into consideration, numbers like "30% growth", "18% increase in retail sales", etc mean very little in terms of overall market share. Look at BongoBanger's stats above regarding number of Macs sold versus number of HP units sold last year. HP had a 400% lead in sales in 2007. That's just HP, let alone all the other PC retailers.

I can absolutely say, with full conviction, that there is no way Apple will have a majority market share by 2010... which was your point I was saying no to.

BongoBanger has given you a good analysis of the marketshare. There is no hate there, just a realistic viewpoint of the numbers.

Fair enough, though I wasn't calling you an Apple hater I was saying that to Bongobanger (notice the quote?)

As for when I got my first Apple computer, check my sig. It's been there the whole time.

And repeatedly I have conceded that I could be wrong, but there are many analysts in the industry including the same exact source (Gartner) that BongoBanger quotes that say Apple's share will continue to double while everyone else's declines, due to what Apple has been doing right and what HP, Dell and the like have been doing wrong.

Some further suggested reading that may help to enlighten all of us a bit in this numbers game: http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/FFE4A8E2-9816-4344-9FB0-61BED246674C.html

Again, though I usually tend to be very much a realist, in this case I may be more U.S. centric, overly optimistic or completely wrong, but I've made the same prediction in the past regarding the iPod and had the same [type] of people give me the exact same arguments and why they "know it will never happen"... and again, let's not hijack this thread any further, we've all made our points and I don't know how many more times I need to say I could be wrong and concede to the both of you. Let's move on.
 
I want to see Quake 4, boxing, Star Wars (Lightsaber game), Star Trek panel interface on the iPhone, and Unreal, Chess, some card games, and World of Warcraft on this iPhone
 
Boy, you just don't get it or you're just a true blue Apple hater.

Neither. I'm just a financial realist.

Looking at the percentages as well as the current trend in Apple's high customer satisfaction and other PC user's low satisfaction, if Apple continues to grow percentage wise while other's (such as HP) decline, yes, there is at least a chance.

Well first of all you're wrong about customer satisfaction. Apple do indeed lead the way but their ASCI score dropped by 5% in Q2 2007. They're still ahead of HP with a score of 79 compared to HP's 76 but not massively so. Mind you, Dell are terrible for CS. As for sales, we've already gone through that and the figures speak for themselves.

Man I just hate it when some of you think you have such acute perception that you can definitively say absolutely "not a chance" or "Never!" NONE of us can say absolutely one way or another, I am just making my own prediction but for you to say not a chance sounds like the same people that said the iPhone did not have a chance to sell even a small bit let alone sell as well as it already has.

Again you make false assumptions. I always thought the iPhone would do well in the US and less so in Europe. So far I've been right. The reason I say Apple will never be a dominant player in the PC market is because their business strategy isn't geared towards this - they are a high quality niche player as far as PCs go.

As I already admitted, I could be wrong and part of me is just playing devils advocate to those of you that always want to say "Apple will never...." but sorry, there is ALWAYS a chance. I guess we'll all just wait and see.

True. The difference between you and I is that I research these things (I invest so like to know how companier are doing beyond the usual over excited squealing of the City and Wall Street analysts). To suggest that I'm a hater or don't get it is both insulting and incorrect.

As for roughlydrafted.com, I strongly caution you never to take anything they say seriously as they're probably the most rabid and factually incorrect fanboy site on the web. You just have to look at their coverage of CanSecWest to see this.

Good stats speak for themselves.
 
Geez, I thought this was a QUAKE III thread, must have clicked the wrong button !!
 
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