Qualcomm Supply Issues Providing Further Fuel for Speculation of Fall iPhone Release

[MacRumors]

Qualcomm yesterday warned analysts that it is experiencing supply issues with some of its advanced mobile phone chips, particularly its new 28-nm modem chips set to power the next wave of LTE devices.

"At this stage we cannot secure enough supply to meet the increasing demand we are experiencing," Chief Executive Paul Jacobs told analysts on a conference call, adding that the issue would limit revenue growth this year. [...]

"Demand went so far ahead of availability that we've decided to start spending more money to get more supply as soon as possible," [Chief Financial Officer Bill Keitel] told Reuters. "Any time we can't make a customer totally happy I'm going to worry. You don't want to give a customer a reason to go elsewhere."

As a result of the issues, analysts believe that vendors may have to slow their rollout of new devices, and a report out today from Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster predicts that the next-generation iPhone will arrive in October.

Qualcomm's LTE modem roadmap (Source: AnandTech)​

Munster had previously been modeling for an August launch as a hedge between those thinking the device may arrive in June and those thinking it will arrive in a September-October timeframe similar to the iPhone 4S. Apple is expected to use Qualcomm's 28-nm MDM9615 modem chip in its next-generation iPhone to provide LTE data and voice services, and the chip appears to be one of those impacted by Qualcomm's supply issues.

QCOM will likely support an Apple iPhone launch in October. Based on our checks, we believe the design win momentum of QCOM's 28nm products has been exceptionally strong and a 28nm LTE baseband is likely designed into the next iPhone. QCOM's supply issue likely pushes the launch of the iPhone to October. Based on the increased capital spending this year from TSMC and QCOM's efforts over the last quarter to port its 28nm designs to UMC and probably Global Foundries, we think QCOM will have the capacity to support a Q4 LTE iPhone 5 launch. Moreover, the slow wireless infrastructure spending in 1H:12 is also likely a result of the lack of availability of a low power 28nm LTE baseband modem.

Apple may have been planning for a September-October iPhone launch all along, but Qualcomm's issues seem to make it less likely that those holding out hope for an earlier launch will see something closer to the June-July timeframe that had been the traditional launch window prior to last year.

Munster believes that it is "irrelevant" whether the iPhone launches in August as his model currently predicts or in October, with the primary driver of success being whether the upgrade is a compelling one for consumers. And with the next-generation iPhone expected to offer LTE support and carry a redesigned form factor, it seems likely that it will be an attractive device for both new and upgrade customers.

Article Link: Qualcomm Supply Issues Providing Further Fuel for Speculation of Fall iPhone Release

 

[669532]

There are so many different mobile acronyms...


QCOM, LTE, Hspa+, Hspa, TD-, SCDMA the list goes on!

 

[firemedicmark]

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[ciociosan]

I'm absolutely fine with them pushing back the release of the iPhone until next year if they have to in order to avoid repeating the unbelievable blunder of not including LTE tech compatible with networks other than U.S. ones. Multiple models with different chips, or a single global one if this chip manufacturing hitch makes that possible. Just don't do that stupid thing again, Apple. Puhleaze.

 

[chrmjenkins]

It's important to note that one just doesn't buy more fab capacity from another vendor. You have to validate your design on each fab's process, even if they're all 28nm. This takes months (and this is just if they substituted the new fab's standard library parts in and did a basic DRC check before shipping it off). TSMC has dissapointed yet again with ramping up their new process, so Qualcomm and nVidia are looking to Global Foundries, Samsung and UCM to fill the gaps. Depending upon how early Qualcomm acted on this, it could jeopardize iPhone supply if it uses their 28nm LTE chip as expected. The good thing is that Apple can commit to quantities pretty much no one else will, and they'll pay a premium to get priority.

 

[basesloaded190]

I'll believe it when I see it.

Believe what? That these chips are going to be delayed?

 

[yegon]

Love to see the next iPhone mid year but I'd be surprised. Everything points towards the cycle of q1 iPad, q2-q3 mac, q4 iPhone. Spreads the announcements and focus throughout the year.

 

[StuddedLeather]

I might be jumping out the window here, but I thought another Fall release was pretty evident since the last fall release. There's nothing to speculate about. Lol I can't wait until news sources think they are bringing 'exclusive news about the new iPhone"

Regardless I'm buying it, and I can't wait. Foolish of me to purchase a product I haven't seen yet, don't care!

 

[Moonjumper]

I think the most last paragraph was the most important one. What the new iPhone offers is more important than when it comes out.

But as this rumours is about timing, I think we are looking at a release at the same time as last year.

EDIT: Message corrected, got interrupted when posting original and made a mistake.

 

[shawnce]

Apple could have locked in production volume with a pre-purchase and this is Qualcomm letting other potential customers know that they won't have much extra capacity in the near term as a result.

...but who knows.

Personally think Q3 is the likely release time for iPhones going forward.

 

[Consultant]

iPhone 5 will be available fall or later.

 

[guzhogi]

Believe what? That these chips are going to be delayed?

Maybe that Apple will use those specific chips, maybe? I have no clue. And I don't really care what Apple uses. I'm just content to wait to see what Apple does with the next iPhone. Plus, I know millions of people will buy it, there will be lines around the block on release day and all that. Just the usual.

 

[smithrh]

There are so many different mobile acronyms...


QCOM, LTE, Hspa+, Hspa, TD-, SCDMA the list goes on!

<Cough>

TD-SCDMA

</Cough>

If you want TLAs and FLAs, telecom is the place to be.

 

[guzhogi]

There are so many different mobile acronyms...


QCOM, LTE, Hspa+, Hspa, TD-, SCDMA the list goes on!

I work in a public school and you should see all the education acronyms! At our monthly staff meetings, we have this tall bottle. If someone says an acronym & doesn't say what it means, they have to put in a dollar and all money collected gets donated to a charity or something. Pretty funny.

 

[BMNB1tch]

sad Qualcomm cant get it together

always thought it was a bad idea to put these chipsets in the iPhone

 

[antseg]

I guess I can use my iPhone 4 for a few more months after the contract expires.

I'm pretty sure the only stories predicting June come with huge disclaimers about the sources' reliability (or lack thereof).

No to mention there haven't been iPhones "found" in coffee shops or restaurants or pictures taken of phones secured to tables yet and it's already April.

 

[669532]

<Cough>

TD-SCDMA

</Cough>

If you want TLAs and FLAs, telecom is the place to be.

ha, yeah i wondered about that one when I was copying the picture!

 

[fertilized-egg]

sad Qualcomm cant get it together

always thought it was a bad idea to put these chipsets in the iPhone

It's probably more to do with TSMC's inability to boost the 28nm process. It's almost scary how many different semiconductors TSMC produces. They make AMD and nVidia graphic chips, nVidia Tegras, Qualcomm Snapdragons and modem chips, etc.

I suspect some might get surprised that Apple isn't the only company who outsources production of chips but I never see someone complain that Tegra isn't actually "made" by nVidia unlike those always yell "A5 isn't an Apple chip, it's made by Samsung!"

 

[cvaldes]

I work in a public school and you should see all the education acronyms! At our monthly staff meetings, we have this tall bottle. If someone says an acronym & doesn't say what it means, they have to put in a dollar and all money collected gets donated to a charity or something. Pretty funny.

Don't you mean LOL?

 

[Rocketman]

The "delay" to the already "expected" time frame just solidifies the expectation that Cook is managing yet another worldwide rollout. This is nothing but good news for ROW.

Rocketman

 

[kiljoy616]

That fine the other companies can wait, Apple gets first dibs on all products.

 

[g4cubed]

Apple could have locked in production volume with a pre-purchase and this is Qualcomm letting other potential customers know that they won't have much extra capacity in the near term as a result.

...but who knows.

Personally think Q3 is the likely release time for iPhones going forward.

That's a possibility I would like to see, but doubt it.

 

[nutjob]

Maybe that Apple will use those specific chips, maybe? I have no clue. And I don't really care what Apple uses. I'm just content to wait to see what Apple does with the next iPhone. Plus, I know millions of people will buy it, there will be lines around the block on release day and all that. Just the usual.

Exactly. Your average Apple customers doesn't know or care, as long as it's still fashionable, they're in.

 

[chaosbringer]

Hope it supports 4G in Europe..

 

[KPOM]

I'm absolutely fine with them pushing back the release of the iPhone until next year if they have to in order to avoid repeating the unbelievable blunder of not including LTE tech compatible with networks other than U.S. ones. Multiple models with different chips, or a single global one if this chip manufacturing hitch makes that possible. Just don't do that stupid thing again, Apple. Puhleaze.

I wouldn't call it a blunder. It was a calculated business decision. Apple is not a company who usually is at the front of the wireless standards (the first iPhone was EDGE, remember).

I'm guessing that Apple would prefer to wait until LTE chipsets are mature. They used a 1-year old, power-hungry 45nm design in the new iPad. Probably the only reason they did is that they form factor allowed them to put in a huge battery, which negated the power consumption of the chipset.

LTE support in the new iPad is essentially "experimental." It works for about 2/3 of the US population on Verizon, about 1/3 of the US population on AT&T, and most of the Canadian population on 3 networks that use the same frequency as AT&T. Supporting 8 million people in Sweden and 30 million in Australia probably weren't big priorities. The "blunder," if any, was in the website advertising that used the 4G logo when LTE is the cutoff for 4G outside North America.