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Who is going to buy a new refrigerator every year? I think everyone who needs a refrigerator already owns one. So how is it that they are able to continue selling things everyone already owns.

It could be that
1) new people come into the market
2) the device needs replacements because of damage, theft or whatever
3) the new device is so much better that current owners trade in their old one, only needing to pay the difference in price.
4) the new device is so much better that the market for it expands.

Go into any Home Depot and you will find an entire isle of toilets. Who does not already have one? But still they sell enough that an entire isle of floor space is justified. How could this be? Look at the four items above. They apply to just about everything watches included.


You're about half way right on this, all those are reasons why new people come into the market yearly, Yes, but the actual amount of how many people come in is what will ultimately justify how many sell and if annual refreshes are justified based on that.

Probably less than 1% of the population plans to buy an Apple Watch. I would imagine that more than 99% of the population owns refrigerators and toilets. Therefore the difference in customer turn around is pretty big. In other words there is a HUGE difference in the amount of people in the market for a new smart watch every year versus the amount looking for a new home appliance. Not to mention home appliances are more of a necessity.

On top of that all the refrigerators and toilets you see in stores aren't always brand new models. Alot of those models have been around for 2-3 years if not more. So even with a bigger consumer base appliances still dont even refresh yearly.

Not saying if Apple will or wont refresh on a certain cycle, who knows, they might, but the analogy you gave isn't really a good one.
 
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You're about half way right on this, all those are reasons why new people come into the market yearly, Yes, but the actual amount of how many people come in is what will ultimately justify how many sell and if annual refreshes are justified based on that.

Probably less than 1% of the population plans to buy an Apple Watch. I would imagine that more than 99% of the population owns refrigerators and toilets. Therefore the difference in customer turn around is pretty big. In other words there is a HUGE difference in the amount of people in the market for a new smart watch every year versus the amount looking for a new home appliance. Not to mention home appliances are more of a necessity.

On top of that all the refrigerators and toilets you see in stores aren't always brand new models. Alot of those models have been around for 2-3 years if not more. So even with a bigger consumer base appliances still dont even refresh yearly.

Not saying if Apple will or wont refresh on a certain cycle, who knows, they might, but the analogy you gave isn't really a good one.

Considering how many people actually already bought a Apple watch in the US right now (some estimates in the 2.5-3M range (5-7M world wide); I think your 1% is going to be way way way off. More like 10-15% eventually.
 
Considering how many people actually already bought a Apple watch in the US right now (some estimates in the 2.5-3M range (5-7M world wide); I think your 1% is going to be way way way off. More like 10-15% eventually.

those are estimates which we dont even know are credible though. Has Apple stuck to their non disclosure stance on the watch numbers ? because if so then we have no idea what they are.

Even if we were to believe it was 3 million that's still less than 1% in the U.S. and 7 million worldwide is WAYYYYYYY under 1%.

I rarely see the Apple Watch, even most of the affluent very well off people I see who love Iphones and even own Ipads, Macs, etc are still wearing regular watches.

I dont know where you get 10 -15% , that would require more than a third of Iphone users to have an Apple Watch. Like I said 3 million (if that number is even true) is still less than 1%.
 
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How many people are going to buy a new watch every year?

As almost everyone who wants an Apple Watch has bought one by now, I question the demand for a new one next year.

My current watch has lasted me for about 30 years and is still going strong. I trust that current Apple Watches will last their owners as long.
 
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those are estimates which we dont even know are credible though. Has Apple stuck to their non disclosure stance on the watch numbers ? because if so then we have no idea what they are.

Even if we were to believe it was 3 million that's still less than 1% in the U.S. and 7 million worldwide is WAYYYYYYY under 1%.

I rarely see the Apple Watch, even most of the affluent very well off people I see who love Iphones and even own Ipads, Macs, etc are still wearing regular watches.

I dont know where you get 10 -15% , that would require more than a third of Iphone users to have an Apple Watch. Like I said 3 million (if that number is even true) is still less than 1%.

I';
those are estimates which we dont even know are credible though. Has Apple stuck to their non disclosure stance on the watch numbers ? because if so then we have no idea what they are.

Even if we were to believe it was 3 million that's still less than 1% in the U.S. and 7 million worldwide is WAYYYYYYY under 1%.

I rarely see the Apple Watch, even most of the affluent very well off people I see who love Iphones and even own Ipads, Macs, etc are still wearing regular watches.

I dont know where you get 10 -15% , that would require more than a third of Iphone users to have an Apple Watch. Like I said 3 million (if that number is even true) is still less than 1%.

I'm so tired of it, TIRED. 2 months after launch, it had sold as much as the Ipad at that point. Around 3M.
That's it. That's almost 4 months ago. That's A DEFINITE NUMBER.

Cook said all the 1.7B in extra sales n others came from the watch in the last conference call, considering both Ipod and Apple TV sales were in a free fall in the year prior to their refresh and their price had also been cut, revenue from them had fallen to a very low level.

Estimates of watch sales take those are estimates of Ipod and AppleTV sales. Don't don't have to get these estimates to the dollar to get a very good idea of how far down their revenues have fallen.

Taking that into account, the numbers estimated for watch sales were somewhere from 2.5 to 3B.

If every one of those bought a Sport, that's 6.8M-8.6M, the average price will be higher (cause of other SKU), so the likely number is more 5.5M to 7M. About 33% to 50% of sales will be in the US.

Unless you want children to have Apple watches, or people in group homes, the number of people Apple actually needs to go after to get 1% of the actual buying public in the US is likely only about 2.5M. No matter how you slice it, they're either at or past it, or very close to it. By January 1, they'll be way past that.

Don't think you realize how wide a distribution network Apple has in the US.
The watch sold 3M WITH NO RETAIL PRESENCE AT ALL ANYWHERE.
 
Perhaps you'll be able to sell your current watch for half of your cost, and then a new one is doable. There are a lot of gadget sluts out there ... like me.
 
I';


I'm so tired of it, TIRED. 2 months after launch, it had sold as much as the Ipad at that point. Around 3M.
That's it. That's almost 4 months ago. That's A DEFINITE NUMBER.

Cook said all the 1.7B in extra sales n others came from the watch in the last conference call, considering both Ipod and Apple TV sales were in a free fall in the year prior to their refresh and their price had also been cut, revenue from them had fallen to a very low level.

Estimates of watch sales take those are estimates of Ipod and AppleTV sales. Don't don't have to get these estimates to the dollar to get a very good idea of how far down their revenues have fallen.

Taking that into account, the numbers estimated for watch sales were somewhere from 2.5 to 3B.

If every one of those bought a Sport, that's 6.8M-8.6M, the average price will be higher (cause of other SKU), so the likely number is more 5.5M to 7M. About 33% to 50% of sales will be in the US.

Unless you want children to have Apple watches, or people in group homes, the number of people Apple actually needs to go after to get 1% of the actual buying public in the US is likely only about 2.5M. No matter how you slice it, they're either at or past it, or very close to it. By January 1, they'll be way past that.

Don't think you realize how wide a distribution network Apple has in the US.
The watch sold 3M WITH NO RETAIL PRESENCE AT ALL ANYWHERE.



Tired of what ? I'm just saying the facts which is that Apple has never officially put out numbers on the watch. You're tired of me simply stating the truth ?

but I let you run with your 3 million for arguments sake remember ?

I said less than 1% of the population which since nothing is specified would mean the general population. I'm not going off the "buying public" because nobody knows exactly the population of the "buying public" or what really constitutes the "buying public". There's multiple variables that affect the population of the "buying public" ESPECIALLY when it comes to an item like the Apple Watch.

So if you're responding to MY comment then you have to abide by the way the comment is worded. Which according to what I said is still true. It's not past 1 %.
 
regardless of what people say, I personally think its one of the best Apple products I own. However, I will only be willing to upgrade every two to three years at most.
 
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regardless of what people say, I personally think its one of the best Apple products I own. However, I will only be willing to upgrade every two to three years at most.

I agree. I have worn mine every day since April, and it has become a very important part of my life. I travel a lot, and have many meetings a day. Having this information and reminders on my wrist has been very helpful. As far as the battery life goes, when I take the watch off ari]ond midnight, it always has at least 65% life left. I can get 2 full days from one charge.
 
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Tired of what ? I'm just saying the facts which is that Apple has never officially put out numbers on the watch. You're tired of me simply stating the truth ?

but I let you run with your 3 million for arguments sake remember ?

I said less than 1% of the population which since nothing is specified would mean the general population. I'm not going off the "buying public" because nobody knows exactly the population of the "buying public" or what really constitutes the "buying public". There's multiple variables that affect the population of the "buying public" ESPECIALLY when it comes to an item like the Apple Watch.

So if you're responding to MY comment then you have to abide by the way the comment is worded. Which according to what I said is still true. It's not past 1 %.

WTH!! Marketers know EXACTLY what the buying public is.
You think I was born yesterday or something.
Even using simple logic, nobody would include someone under 13 in the buying public for a watch, let alone an Apple watch. Do you even listen to what your spouting.

BTW, You had no numbers when you uttered your 1%. Want me to paste your original post.
(saying Apple had said nothing, when they had said something in their 2 earning calls).
So, basically, you are just making stuff up as you go along and the person with no facts is you.

Moving the goalpost doesn't make anything you say more true.
 
I'm glad the Apple Watch is demolishing the competition. They deserve it. I plan on upgrading every year. I consider myself a loyal customer
 
WTH!! Marketers know EXACTLY what the buying public is.
You think I was born yesterday or something.
Even using simple logic, nobody would include someone under 13 in the buying public for a watch, let alone an Apple watch. Do you even listen to what your spouting.

BTW, You had no numbers when you uttered your 1%. Want me to paste your original post.
(saying Apple had said nothing, when they had said something in their 2 earning calls).
So, basically, you are just making stuff up as you go along and the person with no facts is you.

Moving the goalpost doesn't make anything you say more true.


So do you know the EXACT number of the population of the total "buying public" specifically for the Apple Watch ?

What's the EXACT number since you're acting like this can be determined with such simple logic ?

You more than likely dont but regardless of what your answer is, it doesn't matter to my overall point, why ? because I NEVER was referring to the "buying public " since my first statement because I have no idea exactly what that number is. Why would I speak on a number I have no remote estimate for ?

I know a relatively close estimate of what the general population of the U.S. is , which is why I used that number instead of trying to speak on the "buying public", crazy idea huh ?

Just because I didn't give the number up front doesn't mean I didn't have an idea in my head of what I was basing my approximation off of. Where are YOUR remote and CREDIBLE estimates of how large the "buying population" is ? It hasn't been said yet so by your logic should we just throw your entire argument out ?

Do you know what I said in my original post ?

" Probably less than 1% of the population plans to buy an Apple Watch "

Now you read that very carefully and tell me how you can credibly confirm that's a false statement ?

Now you tell me where did I indicate that I was speaking on this specific demographic of the buying population of the Apple Watch ? If you're gonna quote me and challenge my statement dont twist it to fit YOUR agenda. Abide by the words that I used. CLEARLY I was talking about the general population rather than the buying population, therefore , No , I wasn't way off with my 1% estimate. You tried to say I was wrong by trying to change the meaning of my statement so how is anyone trying to move the goal posts here except YOU ? How ironic is it for you to say such a thing after THAT ? NOBODY was talking about the buying public until YOU brought it up, so HOW are you going to base MY 1% statement off the "buying public" that I never originally mentioned ?

Has Apple actually spoke directly on exact Apple Watch sales numbers ?

No ? SO HOW IS ANYTHING I SAID ABOUT THAT WRONG ? I said IF apple has not given us specific watch numbers, then........... we probably dont know the specific watch numbers ! not guesstimates based off "other" figures, I'm talking real official numbers. So HOW is that a wrong or false statement on my part ??

So I'm the one moving the goal posts when you're stretching, twisting, and misrepresenting what I'm saying to fit YOUR agenda huh ? Yeah Okay
 
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I guess that ends the debate about whether or not there will be yearly cycles.

/sarcasm
Who knows how long the lead time is for this. If they are giving feedback this could be an internal pilot run that does not see the light of day. Then the year of inside testing and then a build for mass distribution in '17.

I'm glad the Apple Watch is demolishing the competition. They deserve it. I plan on upgrading every year. I consider myself a loyal customer
While they are definitely making a footing in the smartwatch market, Pebble is doing fine with a smartwatch priced below the lowest end Apple Watch. The Pebble Round is getting a lot of positive reviews. Competition is good.
 
I am afraid you are going to be disappointed as just like the iPhone, Apple will upgrade the watch and it looks like yearly.
The iPhone has the best price retention of all phones in the industry. If the watch retains its value in the same way then, I won't be too disjointed, no matter what the release cycle is.
 
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I see a trend happening in Macrumors, people are becoming more critical of Tim Cook and skeptical of the path Apple is taking. If 2nd generation isn't a jaw dropper, then someone should get the boot!

Who cares what the Macrumors trend is, the forum is mainly full of clueless idiots anyway!
 
So it's our expectations that are too high then? Whose fault is that? :D

My point was... Apple doesn't have their "icon" anymore... but no one else does either.
If you're letting your expectations be driven by those of Wall Street (or alleged financial analysts), then it's your fault. Same goes with Apple's "icon." If you believe that his "reality distortion field" was a critical factor, then you're wrong. Probably wrong enough to believe Wall Street.
 
So do you know the EXACT number of the population of the total "buying public" specifically for the Apple Watch ?

What's the EXACT number since you're acting like this can be determined with such simple logic ?

You more than likely dont but regardless of what your answer is, it doesn't matter to my overall point, why ? because I NEVER was referring to the "buying public " since my first statement because I have no idea exactly what that number is. Why would I speak on a number I have no remote estimate for ?

I know a relatively close estimate of what the general population of the U.S. is , which is why I used that number instead of trying to speak on the "buying public", crazy idea huh ?

Just because I didn't give the number up front doesn't mean I didn't have an idea in my head of what I was basing my approximation off of. Where are YOUR remote and CREDIBLE estimates of how large the "buying population" is ? It hasn't been said yet so by your logic should we just throw your entire argument out ?

Do you know what I said in my original post ?

" Probably less than 1% of the population plans to buy an Apple Watch "

Now you read that very carefully and tell me how you can credibly confirm that's a false statement ?

Now you tell me where did I indicate that I was speaking on this specific demographic of the buying population of the Apple Watch ? If you're gonna quote me and challenge my statement dont twist it to fit YOUR agenda. Abide by the words that I used. CLEARLY I was talking about the general population rather than the buying population, therefore , No , I wasn't way off with my 1% estimate. You tried to say I was wrong by trying to change the meaning of my statement so how is anyone trying to move the goal posts here except YOU ? How ironic is it for you to say such a thing after THAT ? NOBODY was talking about the buying public until YOU brought it up, so HOW are you going to base MY 1% statement off the "buying public" that I never originally mentioned ?

Has Apple actually spoke directly on exact Apple Watch sales numbers ?

No ? SO HOW IS ANYTHING I SAID ABOUT THAT WRONG ? I said IF apple has not given us specific watch numbers, then........... we probably dont know the specific watch numbers ! not guesstimates based off "other" figures, I'm talking real official numbers. So HOW is that a wrong or false statement on my part ??

So I'm the one moving the goal posts when you're stretching, twisting, and misrepresenting what I'm saying to fit YOUR agenda huh ? Yeah Okay

They give us numbers. YOu talk A LOT with very little info. So, bye. Talk more to someone else.
 
My apps load very fast. I'll be purchasing the next generation, for sure and absolutely!

Then count yourself blessed and lucky. Your experience isn't typical based on not only mine, but also based on reviews I've read, professional and user. It's a key area Apple needs to focus on if AW is going to succeed long term. I don't know which apps you are using that load up at lightning speed. I'd love to test them on my watch. I can say that apps like City Mapper and WSJ -- featured App Store Apps -- take 30 seconds or longer to load up on my watch.
 
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