aldo said:Erm.. Apple's BS about not making money off iTMS is just that, BS. Of course they want the money.
I don't think Apple has said they don't make any money on iTMS. However, their actual claim to make relatively little money on it, 1-2 cents per song in profit, is borne out by their most recent SEC filings and executive/analyst statements.
Are you suggesting Apple is BS'ing the SEC? Maybe you should put a concerned consumer call in; we wouldn't want Apple becoming the next Enron, would we?
While I'm not saying that the iPod is going to suddenly dead, it will not sell in these quantities. Margins will fall aswell.
Well, as a general truism, any product will trend towards commoditization or obsolescence. That results in a lowering of market share and of per-unit margins. So, yeah, I bet you're right.
Of course, that's not an "interesting" statement, as it doesn't give a timeframe, nor an analysis of whether Apple's current market share might give its own next-generation devices enough of a leg up that when this generation of device becomes commoditized they as a company retain market share. Note that within the mini-generations the iPod has already gone through, the commoditization and obsolescence factors were outweighed tremendously by overall market growth and customer loyalty, bringing about astounding year-over-year growth instead of decline. Do you see these failing soon? Do you see someone else in the industry usurping Apple's design-leadership role?
So, are you predicting that Apple will lose a substantial portion of portable music device market share within a year? Two years? What's your non-obvious claim?