I think that is coming quick, as security is a good excuse.
I could definitely see that. Culling support for anything that isn't Skylake or newer would seem to be the only other logical reduction to happen before then. As it's not like there was much that changed architecturally between that and 8th Generation when the T2 chips started to come out on things.
Yes but your older computer runs intel and the new OSes are Intel also, soon Apple and 3rd parties do not want to support 2 architectures. Mojave has been released for less than 2 years, I am sure this year will be last for security updates.
Apple has outright stated that they're committed to giving us Intel compatible versions of macOS for several years to come. I take "several" to mean more than three. Third parties don't care as they do what Apple tells them to do and right now, Apple is pushing everyone to the Universal Binary 2 format.
And yes, Mojave is likely set to get its last security update sometime this summer because every Apple OS dating back to before the Intel switch gets security updates until it is three versions behind the current and Monterey is due out this Fall.
In the past I have run Mavericks for a long time that both Apple and 3rd parties apps stopped releasing updates to support it. In fact, currently I would like to run an adblocker called 1blockr but its Catalnia+ only. From my experience FF and Chrome really give support for older OSes for a long time.
Most third party apps will stop supporting an OS as soon as Apple stops supporting that OS. That's where you'll see a drop in Intel support; when the last Intel compatible release of macOS gets its final security update. Chrome and Firefox will give it another year or two on top of that, but past that, that's it.
Of course no one can tell the future, Apple could pull the plug on Intel tomorrow or could support it for the next 20 years. All we can work with is past events to build a prediction on whats going to happen in the future.
If all you're doing is looking at past events and assuming a guaranteed pattern, then you'll never be correct at predicting anything. This is not the same transition as that was. This is not even the same Apple. The PowerPC to Intel transition occurred from announcement to final product in 14 months. We're not going to be done with the Intel to Apple Silicon transition until at least the two year mark. Furthermore, back then, Apple released new OSes when they were ready. Now, Apple releases new OSes on an annual schedule, whether they're ready or not. So, comparing this transition to last transition literally doesn't make any logical sense.
why bother? they’re already throwing intel users under the bus with the next OS.
By "throwing intel users under the bus" you mean "introducing features that require a neural engine", right? Because otherwise, you are categorically wrong here. They are not throwing anyone under the bus. The Intel Macs that can run Monterey will still be able to use literally every other new feature that doesn't expressly require the neural engine.
