So basically, everyone meet back here in a couple of weeks…?
I'm up for that! I'm usually around 30% right predicting Apple. But I think this time, in pointing out that even Apple can't pull this off, I might be pushing closer to 100% right.
The two factors that are arguing against my confidence are...
1. When I first saw AirPods I thought people wearing them looked like dicks. White sticks sticking out of their ears. Come on. Ridiculous. They still do look like dicks. But Apple somehow moves the needle on cultural acceptance. It wasn't just Steve Jobs and his reality distortion field. It's the entire company. They change reality.
2. If anybody can, Apple can. Apple steps in when it's right to do something. Naysayers were out in force before and after the launch of the iPod, iPhone, iPad, Watch etc. As John Gruber points out, the pattern is that everybody says it'll never work, then Apple iterates on the design, then everybody says they knew it would be a success from day one. Again, this is a very unusual characteristic of how Apple somehow moves the needle in a cultural way.
But... I think I'm right. AR/VR goggles just can't work. They're impractical. The use case is so limited... It just can't work.
Glasses? Whole different technology. They can certainly work. But the tech needed is at least five years away, and more like 10. Batteries alone need to evolve massively.