Report: iPad Pro Popularity Cutting Into iPad Air and iPad Mini Sales

[svish]

Though Air is more than enough for the majority, some go for the Pro only for FaceID and 120Hz.

 

[Shirasaki]

I look forward to the M5 iPad Pro 13in starting at £1600, with the same ‘great’ OS we know and love (apparently).

And will forever remain that way till iPad is replaced by something else, something thats not a tablet.

 

[cloudyo]

Any thoughts on the size difference?

the 11 inch is the upper limit of what you can carry around comfortably, in my opinion. the same applies to the weight of the 11 inch by itself. if you also get the folio (cover) for it however, even the 11 inch becomes too heavy to hold it in one hand comfortably.

I got the 11 inch because the 13 inch was definitely too heavy and too big to use during a commute for example. So now, I am using the 13 inch with the magic keyboard as a laptop replacement and I carry the 11 inch around with me when I am out and about.

 

[mech986]

My perhaps faulty interpretation of the charts are they are based on revenue but many of us are seeing them as unit volume.

It would be interesting to see the volume numbers. That would show if the total volume grew and which segments grew the most. Without those numbers, it’s hard to say if iPad Pros grew at the iPad’s expense or an increase in volume accounted for the revenue increase.

I suspect, if Mini sales keep falling it will be dropped from the lineup. At some point, it becomes to small of a market to warrant the costs of updating it.

Apple needs to simplify the ipad lineup. It's a complete mess.

The price of the iPad Pro is already unbearably high, which is really scary.

Another valid interpretation is that Air owners didn't see a reason to upgrade, while Mini owners can't upgrade, and the Pro's share only increased because they are losing revenue at the other models.

This "data" is from CIRP - the same people behind the "data" that shows that the $7k Mac Pro is outselling the $1300 iMac, and the MacBook Pro is outselling the MacBook Air.

Both would be consistent with the figures being based on revenue rather than unit sales.

However, given the report doesn't bother to state such a fundamental detail - nor does it give any details of how the figures were obtained, or what the confidence intervals may be - a much simpler conclusion is to throw the whole thing on the "hogwash until proven otherwise" pile. If it's based on a small survey, the changes might not even be statistically significant... (Mind you - that applies to 93.72% of all data published in the mass media).

Is this % of sales revenue or number of units sold? It isn't clear and a major difference there if viewing "popularity"

are these percentages based on revenue or units? makes a big difference when pro's can cost 2-3x as much a classic.

For those of you wondering units ipad sales vs revenues, look at the original CIRP article which was linked in the MR article:

“It looks like at least the new iPad Pro gained some share in the quarter, relative to the year ago period. Apple launched these models mid-quarter, so we will need another quarter or two of data to properly assess consumer reaction.

In the June 2024 quarter, iPad Pro (both the 11-inch and 13-inch models) accounted for 43% of total iPad sales, an increase from 38% in the year-ago June 2023 quarter.

iPad Pro appears to have cut into the sales of both iPad mini and also iPad Air.”

IMO, and if you follow CIRP, this data represents unit sales data, not revenue. CIRP also generally is reporting US sales data or percentages of sales data based on surveys of relevant buyers, again in the US. So within these parameters, the iPad Pro was a hit with US buyers.

While it may be difficult to extend this data to worldwide iPad sales, one thing to remember is Apple also had a very robust Q3 FY24 iPad revenue of $7.16B vs $5.79B, an increase of +24%. In the earnings call commentary, Luca Maestri said
“iPad revenue was $7.2 billion, up 24% year-over-year, driven by the launch of the new iPad Pro and iPad Air. Customers are loving the latest iPad lineup for its new design and display, unparalleled performance, AI capabilities, and much more. The iPad installed base has continued to grow and is at an all-time high, as half of the customers who purchased iPads during the quarter were new to the product.”

The overall revenue pie was 24% larger which either suggests a big shift in product mix sales to high value iPad Pro’s or an overall increase across the most models in sales. Since Pro accounted for a 5% increase in share or a bigger pie, it accounts for more revenue comparatively, at least in the US.

The install base keeps growing and iPad converts or de novo users making up half the buyers strongly suggests iPad-less users (Apple or non-Apple) found something there they liked, and were willing to pony up for that value.

Given that Android tablets don’t seem to sell on power or performance, and the Android tablet experience is relatively poor, most Android tablets, like their smartphones, seem to sell on lower prices, or at least that’s the impression I get. Since NONE of the Android tablet makers break out tablet sales or revenue separately from
Mobile phones, it’s hard to determine how much or how little Android tablet revenue and sales are. We’ll just have to wait for other research firms like IDC and Canalys to give us unit sales estimates for each quarter, and try to correlate that with any revenue numbers. At least Apple does provide iPad revenue data.

And, as with iPhones, a unit sale of an iPad model does NOT equal an Android tablet unit sale, given the disparity in sales numbers and the average potential sales prices of iPads, especially apparently popular iPad Pro’s. Android makers can only dream about being able to sell a >$700 to $1800 tablet in any quantity like Apple can.

And on cue, I find a Canalys report 4 days old that shows unit sales:

Canalys Newsroom - Worldwide tablet shipments up 18% in Q2 2024

Find the latest press releases, channels and tech analysis available

www.canalys.com

Maker-Q2 ‘24 - share - Q2 ‘23 - share

Apple	13,908​	38.7%​	11,736​	38.7%​
Samsung	6,776​	18.9%​	6,010​	19.8%​
Huawei	2,501​	7.0%​	1,658​	5.5%​
Lenovo	2,485​	6.9%​	2,136​	7.0%​
Xiaomi	2,144​	6.0%​	1,039​	3.4%​
Others	8,122​	22.6%​	7,783​	25.6%​
Total	35,937​	100.0%​	30,362​	100.0%​

Apple still dominates by taking almost 40% or 4/10 unit sales and certainly more than 50% of all tablet revenues.

We can infer from Apple’s revenue and these unit sales:
Q2CY24
rev. $7.16B/13.19M = ASP $543
Q2CY23
Rev. $5.79B/11.74M = ASP $493

IDC’s numbers are slightly different:
Q2CY24 12.3M sold, ASP = $582
Q2CY23 10.4M sold, ASP = $556

These numbers both suggest the US Pro dominant numbers are likely more confined to the US and the rest of world still is more price conscious and buys a lot of base iPads and iPad Airs to offset iPad Pro sales. Still, my guess is Apple’s iPad ASP’s are likely 2x Samsung’s, and up to 3x Android’s.

 

[jlc1978]

half of the customers who purchased iPads during the quarter were new to the product.”

Which comes back to the question:

"Did the Pro cut into Air/Mini sales or bring in new customers that would not have bough an Air or Mini?"

If Air and Pro unit sales increased as the Mini's dropped then both of those likely impacted teh Mini; which would not be surprising as it is relatively old in terms of technology.

 

[JcxaL]

They just cut the air too much to still be a good deal

 

[VisceralRealist]

It makes sense. Enthusiasts/power users/nerds want the Pro, businesses/organizations, budget-minded and less tech savvy users want the entry-level iPad. The iPad Air is the awkward middle child that approaches the Pro in features, but has too many nerfs to be appealing to the more advanced users and is too pricey for the entry-level market. I'm a bit surprised the iPad Air is still an option. I'm not sure who's buying it.

 

[Bungaree.Chubbins]

It makes sense. Enthusiasts/power users/nerds want the Pro, businesses/organizations, budget-minded and less tech savvy users want the entry-level iPad. The iPad Air is the awkward middle child that approaches the Pro in features, but has too many nerfs to be appealing to the more advanced users and is too pricey for the entry-level market. I'm a bit surprised the iPad Air is still an option. I'm not sure who's buying it.

I don’t know that a slightly better screen, facial recognition, and an even larger excess of power is worth the AU$700-900 (for base models) more it costs over the Air.

 

[Edd70]

It makes sense. Enthusiasts/power users/nerds want the Pro, businesses/organizations, budget-minded and less tech savvy users want the entry-level iPad. The iPad Air is the awkward middle child that approaches the Pro in features, but has too many nerfs to be appealing to the more advanced users and is too pricey for the entry-level market. I'm a bit surprised the iPad Air is still an option. I'm not sure who's buying it.

Me, and the killer feature is probably the 13” screen, which you get while not having to pay Pro $, and 128gb is adequate for me. It‘ll be interesting to see if the base iPad gets a 13” screen also, that wouldn’t be good for Air sales.

 

[imola.zhp]

Great, give us an iPad Pro - mini.

That said, the mini is likely down, in part, because its old, it doesn't have and M-Chip, etc.

 

[HeroOfTime32]

The Mini isn't not junk, just 3 years old and everyone is waiting for the next one.

Sales are down more likely because everyone who wanted one, has one, and there's nothing to update to since forever.

Sorry for the late bump...but what's even worse is all rumors now point to 2026 for OLED inclusion.

2026!??! I'm one of those who has an aging Air and wants a Mini...but has spent the past year waiting for an update. I'm honestly deciding if I should just bite the bullet and get a 5th gen at this point...

 

[JapanApple]

The thread is dated some. I am considering the 13in M4 1 Terabyte Version. I am using a 10.5 air. I want to be able to use it for 5 years. Air series is not what it used to be.