Research Firm Raises iPad Sales Projections Through 2012 to Over 120 Million

[NebulaClash]

The mistake some of you are making is in extrapolating future results from current data. It won't be iPad 1.0 that will be selling 100 million units. It will be 2.0, 3.0, etc.

What will the price point be in two years? No idea.

How many models in the iPad family will there be in two years? No idea.

Remember the original 2001 iPod and how much it cost and what it could do? Compare it to the iPod touch and you'll get an idea of what the 2020 version of the iPad could be like. Use your imagination and you'll see how huge the iPad is going to be.

 

[Small White Car]

I know this will change, but right now you can't even *print* from it.

I don't think 6 weeks is that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things.

We're talking about the next couple of years here. What you can't do with an iPad until November is not going to make that much difference.

 

[Winni]

The market for tablets is huge. Once businesses start using them as electronic clipboards and notepads, sales in the tens of millions are not unrealistic at all. They will replace a lot of PCs.

Unfortunately, taking notes and other tasks that are related to WRITING are extraordinarily painful with tablets -- especially with the iPad that does not even have support for a stylus. And if you don't have a good keyboard, you might try handwriting - and that's something you usually don't do with your fingers.

Tablets will find many niches, but I doubt that many of them will have something to do with writing (and notepads have a lot to do with writing).

 

[Ingot]

Nope, consider you can do a lot more with a notebook. Or even do simple things, like Instant Message someone while having a movie playing.

If I had to carry around an extra item (i.e. one that doesn't fit in my pocket), I'd want it to do everything my iPhone couldn't.

But of course a majority of users just like to casually browse the web & consume media; so iPads would be ideal for them. You can create media on the iPad but if you had to pick between a MacBook Pro & an iPad to do it, wouldn't want a more powerful/efficient tool?

Thank you. I almost bought an iPad this summer but just couldn't get beyond the point that my iPhone can do the majority of things for me that an iPad can do. My iBeast can cover the rest. Personally I am waiting for the MBA announcement tomorrow as I see that being a better fit for me as my go-between machine between iPhone and iBeast.

 

[AnalyzeThis]

Keep on dreaming. Not going to happen
First rule of investment: past results do not guarantee any future results (always in a small font, figures). iPhone sales are not exemplary in this case, sorry.

 

[NebulaClash]

Keep on dreaming. Not going to happen

Yaaaaa! I love comments like this. That's the way to put down in writing a definitive statement that can be checked later.

 

[Speedy2]

Right, because we all know that Microsoft's profits are not real money and that Bing and Windows Mobile 7 are huge flops. Classic pump and dump here -- exaggerate impossible projected sales of a phony product, once everyone buys into that dump the stock before they realize they invested in a company w/o any real growth. Yup. You nailed it.

Fixed that for ya.

 

[shiseiryu1]

Old Fashioned..? Maybe just still waiting...?

I prefer to lug around my 13" MBP...is this old fashioned?

I don't know if you're old fashioned...maybe you're just not ready to give up the power of your MBP yet? I have an iPad and I love it for quickly checking email, browsing web, etc. However, it doesn't make a good laptop replacement yet...especially since it doesn't yet have multitasking (not to mention the lack of a video camera).

I think once the iPad2 comes out next year it's going to be a real hit. By then the hardware and software will have matured to where it will be more appealing to the mainstream folks. I really hope they are able to put a retina display on the iPad2...reading newpapers/magazines on the iPad is definitely better than on a PC, however, you can still see pixels which makes it a less than optimal reading experience.

 

[Lone Deranger]

Unfortunately, taking notes and other tasks that are related to WRITING are extraordinarily painful with tablets -- especially with the iPad that does not even have support for a stylus.

Of course there is support for a Stylus. Just not directly from Apple. 3rd party Stylus support is doing well, with quite a few different offerings available.

 

[bobob]

umpf!

50 Million iPads in 2011 times $600/iPad = 30 billion dollar in sales in 2011

The market for ALL cancer drugs worldwide is about 40 billion dollar in sales for 2011

conclusion:
- we as a society have the wrong focus
- I'm going to upgrade my iPad next year anyway

Your logic is so flawed!

Should we all buy cancer drugs even if we don't have cancer????

Not every grown person has cancer,
Not every teenage has cancer,
Not every kid has cancer,
And...
If anyone has cancer, most likely that person will get an iPad this year.

Humor is dead.

 

[Lesser Evets]

Agreed...

I'm waiting to see the iPad/MacAir hybrid tomorrow...

Apple always disappoints (me). If they break out a MacPad Air tomorrow, I'd be amazed. It's a logical and progressive leap of hardware, but Apple has been late on this train for years.

 

[alent1234]

*Tablets* might be able to do this, but the iPad certainly can't. it's not even close to being able to do this since it doesn't have any networking capability.

I know this will change, but right now you can't even *print* from it.

And it's not like doctors haven't been using laptops for a while, and for most doctors a tablet wouldn't be much of an improvement - my doctor comes in, sets her laptop on a small table in the room, and uses it from there (to, among other things, connect info about her exam of me to the rest of the office for purpose of scheduling, recordkeeping, and billing). There's no advantage to the tablet form here.

Maybe in a hospital setting with lots of patients where you're going from bed to bed this could be an advantage - but without real networking capability, I think you'd need an iPad and a laptop. (And I'm not 100% convinced about the tablet form here - is the doctor supposed to type one handed while standing?

hospitals have wifi

few weeks ago when my wife was giving birth we were on our iphones waiting for the baby to come out

and you don't need to print from the iPad. the app is just a front end and the printing should be done from the server side of the app

 

[Speedy2]

Tablets will find many niches, but I doubt that many of them will have something to do with writing (and notepads have a lot to do with writing).

If you want to call "general purpose home user Internet device" a niche... go ahead. I call "writing" a pretty insignificant niche in the grand scheme of things.

 

[JeffDM]

Color me slightly confused if they fell short of expectations why raise estimates just a little but by 20 million? I saw iPads on every store shelf that carried them, I don't believe the production bottleneck is real, at least from my limited vantage. Especially when they are shoving them into retail giants like Target and Walmart. You don't do that, you can't do that without the production capabilities behind a move like that.

Production bottle neck as in now, or at the start? Don't you think it's possible to scale up production as time goes on? iPad has been selling for six months, which should be enough to add more production capacity.

iSuppli's forecast was considerably lower than financial analysts' estimates which, of course, ranged rather widely. Apple's actual iPad sales were considerably below that average.

Which estimates? I remember analysts were previously pegging the entire tablet market at 3 million for the entire year, Apple alone beat that mark in 3 months.

 

[huntercr]

I love apple. I own apple stock. I am amazed at what has happened in the last 10 years. iPad rocks.


Call me a skeptic. But lets get real. iPad is already eclipsing mac sales. Yes, I know the system is cheap and compelling, but ... 60M in 2012... really? Double the population of California? More than all iPhones sold put together?

 

[Popeye206]

Notice they only project through 2012.... that's because the know the end is near! LOL

 

[jimbobb24]

umpf!

50 Million iPads in 2011 times $600/iPad = 30 billion dollar in sales in 2011

The market for ALL cancer drugs worldwide is about 40 billion dollar in sales for 2011

conclusion:
- we as a society have the wrong focus
- I'm going to upgrade my iPad next year anyway

This suggests there is an optimum mix of product preferences. The economy can't be wrong in this way, it can just be different than we might like it. I would say we already spend too much on health care because of an over regulated market that has no normal feedback mechanisms, but that might just be my preferences. If people want to spend all their money on iPads instead of giving it to the local charity, I might not like it, but that does not mean its "wrong".

 

[jimbobb24]

*Tablets* might be able to do this, but the iPad certainly can't. it's not even close to being able to do this since it doesn't have any networking capability.

I know this will change, but right now you can't even *print* from it.

And it's not like doctors haven't been using laptops for a while, and for most doctors a tablet wouldn't be much of an improvement - my doctor comes in, sets her laptop on a small table in the room, and uses it from there (to, among other things, connect info about her exam of me to the rest of the office for purpose of scheduling, recordkeeping, and billing). There's no advantage to the tablet form here.

Maybe in a hospital setting with lots of patients where you're going from bed to bed this could be an advantage - but without real networking capability, I think you'd need an iPad and a laptop. (And I'm not 100% convinced about the tablet form here - is the doctor supposed to type one handed while standing?

I disagree. Carrying around a laptop around the hospital is more difficult than a slate.

I am not sure what "real" networking means in this context. As opposed to the fake networking that exists now? The problem is the software, which moves at a glacial pace in medicine. The software would need to rewritten to take advantage of the interface for it to be useful. A series of pre-written templates with a text field you dictate into would work very well for the majority of doctors visits. I can see a slate working pretty conveniently for that.

 

[RyanR.]

doubt they will replace PC's, but at places like doctor's offices where there are still mountains of paper they have the potential to replace the paper charts

the problem is making an app that lets doctors input information very fast and pull it up as well. it takes a doctor 20 seconds or so to write a prescription or update a chart. an app needs to do the same

Why not have a Doctor's CVS/Walgreens App. Membership required they can place your order before you leave the office and you can pick up on the way home...no waiting

 

[Chupa Chupa]

120 million iPads is a huge number. for home use there is a big ROI on going with iphones or Android phones. my wife and I have 3 iphones and next year it will be 4. with a new one every year. even at less than 1GB data per month there is a return on investment because it allows us to transact business on the go anywhere. and a lot of free services take place buying 20th century versions.

the iPad is an extra device that's more of a luxury. there are less than 75 million households in the US and even with worldwide sales it's a huge number to sell a $500 to $1000 device that's a luxury

Fixed that for ya.

FYI: = sarcasm. I take it from your response to my post that you don't understand what that emoticon signals and wanted to clear it up for you. Yes, the entire post that you responded to was tongue n' cheek & not intended for anyone to take seriously.

 

[sjo]

The mistake some of you are making is in extrapolating future results from current data. It won't be iPad 1.0 that will be selling 100 million units. It will be 2.0, 3.0, etc.

What will the price point be in two years? No idea.

Analysis that is based on imaginary devices at imaginary prices is next to useless. Reminds of that analyst who predicted 45m iphones to be sold in 2009, based on imaginary low-end iphones, which never materialized and Apple sold less than half of that amount.

 

[BC2009]

umpf!

50 Million iPads in 2011 times $600/iPad = 30 billion dollar in sales in 2011

The market for ALL cancer drugs worldwide is about 40 billion dollar in sales for 2011

conclusion:
- we as a society have the wrong focus
- I'm going to upgrade my iPad next year anyway

Ummm..... the best ways to increase the market for cancer drugs is for more people to get cancer or for pharmaceutical companies to raise the prices for those drugs -- both seem like bad options to me.

Somehow you have taken two things that are completely uncorrelated to each other and drawn a conclusion about society. I would hope that we continue to see the tablet market out-pace cancer drugs. I would hope that one day the market for magic 8-balls would exceed that for cancer drugs.

 

[BC2009]

doubt they will replace PC's, but at places like doctor's offices where there are still mountains of paper they have the potential to replace the paper charts

the problem is making an app that lets doctors input information very fast and pull it up as well. it takes a doctor 20 seconds or so to write a prescription or update a chart. an app needs to do the same

I saw apps in the app-store aimed at replacing sign-in lists for restaurants and (even better) doctor's offices. How long until you walk into a doctor's office and see an iPad awaiting you for sign-in rather than the HIPAA-compliant adhesive-backed stickers that have to be pulled off before the next person signs in. You just sign-in on the iPad and your information automatically shows up on the office's computer screens.

The market is going to be HUGE and Apple is in by-far the best position to be in the dominate position once the dust settles.

 

[BC2009]

Color me slightly confused if they fell short of expectations why raise estimates just a little but by 20 million? I saw iPads on every store shelf that carried them, I don't believe the production bottleneck is real, at least from my limited vantage. Especially when they are shoving them into retail giants like Target and Walmart. You don't do that, you can't do that without the production capabilities behind a move like that.

Many people hold-off in Q3 for big purchases like iPad because they are saving up for that holiday purchase. Come November/December time-frame you will likely be hard-pressed to find iPad on the shelves. It will sell in similar fashion to the PS3, XBox 360, and Wii -- it will be one of the big-ticket/must-have holiday gift items.

Ironically, many folks doing that purchasing will be oblivious to the fact that Apple will release a new one 3 months after the holiday season. This may make some folks feel a little miffed, but regardless, iPad 1.0 is a _great_ device. I love mine.

My neighbors across the street (grandparents in their 70s) just bought one so the wife could use it to read her scriptures and hymns at church on Sunday and check her email and browse the web. She and her husband asked me if they could stop by sometime this week so I could show them the best apps and get them going. The appeal of this device is far-reaching -- my neighbors would never have bought an iPhone and would be unlikely to spend the big bucks on a Mac, but they saw my iPad and thought "hey, I could use one of those". It is still very hard to guess how far-reaching the appeal for tablets (or iPads) is going to be, but it could ultimately be as popular as the VCR, DVD player or even the telephone. Apple is in a position to really dominate a gigantic market.

 

[BC2009]

Nope, consider you can do a lot more with a notebook. Or even do simple things, like Instant Message someone while having a movie playing.

If I had to carry around an extra item (i.e. one that doesn't fit in my pocket), I'd want it to do everything my iPhone couldn't.

But of course a majority of users just like to casually browse the web & consume media; so iPads would be ideal for them. You can create media on the iPad but if you had to pick between a MacBook Pro & an iPad to do it, wouldn't want a more powerful/efficient tool?

I updated our finances last night using my iPad instead of my laptop for the first time. The experience was far more enjoyable. They finally released (and upgraded) the app for the finance software I use, and it syncs with my iMac. Sitting on the couch with the iPad and doing this while watching TV was so much nicer than using the heavier/hotter laptop.

Still there are some tasks that are better done on the computer -- it will take time for folks to come up with good touch interfaces for all these things.