Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q3 2013 Earnings Call

[TMay]

Has Apple every announced product updates on these earnings calls? A Haswell update to the MacBook Pro line wouldn't be out of the question, but maybe they will wait until they release the updated iPad in a month or two, or as part of the iPhone event. They didn't do themselves any favors by updating most of their product lines last fall and then not announcing anything new until Haswell. I think most analysts are tools, but Apple has to recognize that staying in the news cycle is an important part of their marketing strategy. Perception is reality for many consumers.

Personally, I would want TB2 in a Haswell MBP.

Perhaps Apple is of the same mind?

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Does this mean no iPhone 5S until December?

September 30 is end of Q4, and as the rumors predict, Apple should announce the new iPhone(s) before then.

 

[iLilana]

no one cares analysts predictions

except people who pay them to "predict". seriously

 

[Polymorphic]

Personally, I would want TB2 in a Haswell MBP.

Perhaps Apple is of the same mind?

I personally hope Apple doesn't wait. I think Thunderbolt has missed its window to catch on with the masses (and I'm using a Thunderbolt display as I type this). USB 3 is good enough for the majority of users, Thunderbolt peripherals cost too much, and outside Apple's own ecosystem, Thunderbolt is losing what little momentum it had (this matters; see FireWire).

 

[HiRez]

Has Apple every announced product updates on these earnings calls?

I don't think so and that would be an awkward presentation anyway. These are analysts, not tech reviewers. Plus, it would probably (perhaps rightfully) be seen as a desperate, pathetic attempt to mitigate bad numbers by saying "But hey, look at this shiny object over here!"

 

[TallManNY]

Personally, I would want TB2 in a Haswell MBP.

Perhaps Apple is of the same mind?

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September 30 is end of Q4, and as the rumors predict, Apple should announce the new iPhone(s) before then.

And more importantly, Apple should be selling iPhone 5S by September. And presumably that leads to a typical blow out quarter since there are so many sales during that first week after launch.

 

[TMay]

I personally hope Apple doesn't wait. I think Thunderbolt has missed its window to catch on with the masses (and I'm using a Thunderbolt display as I type this). USB 3 is good enough for the majority of users, Thunderbolt peripherals cost too much, and outside Apple's own ecosystem, Thunderbolt is losing what little momentum it had (this matters; see FireWire).

You are quite right. The masses are happy with USB 3.0.

Not all find it sufficient.

https://thunderbolttechnology.net/tech/how-it-works

The more you understand TB, the less you will tout USB 3.0 as "good enough".

 

[liven2]

Prepare for the stock to crash

Investors will over react and dump the stock in a big way today. Typical scenario and it will not be a good day tomorrow for AAPL holders. Writing is on the wall in a big way! Ugly!!!!

 

[Polymorphic]

You are quite right. The masses are happy with USB 3.0.

Not all find it sufficient.

https://thunderbolttechnology.net/tech/how-it-works

The more you understand TB, the less you will tout USB 3.0 as "good enough".

I don't think the problem is that not enough people understand how Thunderbolt works. The "problem" is that not enough people need it. The market seems to be saying that people mostly just wanted faster USB, not PCIe and DisplayPort over the same cable (even if it is a neat trick).

In any case, my point is that waiting for a faster version of a protocol that's going nowhere seems like a very bad reason to delay updated MacBook Pros.

 

[IJ Reilly]

I think it would be fair to say that Apple's own EPS guidance was about $6.58 - $7.50. I say about only because we don't have an estimate (from Apple) for the number of (diluted) shares that will be used in the EPS computation.

As they suggested in a previous conference call, if someone wants their effective EPS guidance it only requires a bit of arithmetic based on the guidance they gave for revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, other income, and tax rate.

Good point. The buyback is in progress. But I suspect the analysts have taken this into account as best they can.

The biggest thing to look for in this earnings statement isn't earnings, it's guidance. next quarter has to be big, it's back to school season.

True, but EPS will also factor in heavily. If they don't beat consensus it's always taken as bad news. Also consider that Q4 will be compared to last year's Q4. Sequential doesn't mean much for a cyclical company like Apple.

Investors will over react and dump the stock in a big way today. Typical scenario and it will not be a good day tomorrow for AAPL holders. Writing is on the wall in a big way! Ugly!!!!

So you are putting your money where your mouth is?

I sincerely doubt it.

 

[SusanK]

Long term AAPL investors

Quick survey: how many people are more than 30% underwater on their AAPL?

LOL

Many of us purchased AAPL as a show of support years ago. I did shortly before Steve came back. Coincidence/dumb luck. We had huge paper profits a year ago but not underwater presently. Still in positive territory.

I would actually prefer innovation to share appreciation. I know that is not entirely rational. It's my dream.

 

[Gudi]

In any case, my point is that waiting for a faster version of a protocol that's going nowhere seems like a very bad reason to delay updated MacBook Pros.

Every so often someone is complaining about Pro means nothing or Pro does no longer mean what it used to mean. Today professional means to be able to run one of the new 4K displays and Thunderbolt 2 not USB 3 is the technology capable of doing that. Despite these displays also cost $4K and therefore most people won't buy them right now, it's a Pro feature in a Pro laptop. So you'd better get used to waiting.

 

[iMikeT]

A couple more minutes before the earnings report, glad I'm out of AAPL.

 

[Polymorphic]

Every so often someone is complaining about Pro means nothing or Pro does no longer mean what it used to mean. Today professional means to be able to run one of the new 4K displays and Thunderbolt 2 not USB 3 is the technology capable of doing that. Despite these displays also cost $4K and therefore most people won't buy them right now, it's a Pro feature in a Pro laptop. So you'd better get used to waiting.

It's DisplayPort 1.2 that's driving the 4K display, not Thunderbolt per se. The fact that Thunderbolt 2 can carry a DisplayPort 1.2 signal does not mean that you need Thunderbolt to use a 4K display.

 

[iMikeT]

AAPL beats, $7.47 EPS. AAPL up to $434 in after hours trading.

 

[Rogifan]

Why is Apple up almost 4% after hours? Looks like the stock just jumped in the past few minutes.

 

[TMay]

It's DisplayPort 1.2 that's driving the 4K display, not Thunderbolt per se. The fact that Thunderbolt 2 can carry a DisplayPort 1.2 signal does not mean that you need Thunderbolt to use a 4K display.

So, no 4K docking solutions over USB 3.0. Advantage TB2.

 

[Polymorphic]

So, no 4K docking solutions over USB 3.0. Advantage TB2.

The market will decide if a docking solution is worth the price premium. Early indications are not good: http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2013/07/usb-3-0-continues-to-steal-thunderbolts-thunder/

 

[IJ Reilly]

Why is Apple up almost 4% after hours? Looks like the stock just jumped in the past few minutes.

Beat the street, not by much, but enough to create a relief rally.

 

[Gudi]

It's DisplayPort 1.2 that's driving the 4K display, not Thunderbolt per se. The fact that Thunderbolt 2 can carry a DisplayPort 1.2 signal does not mean that you need Thunderbolt to use a 4K display.

Can a USB 3 port carry a DisplayPort 1.2 signal?
Can a Thunderbolt 1 port be updated with a new firmware to support DisplayPort 1.2?

If not, I don't care, if its the port or the protocol doing the trick.

 

[TMay]

The market will decide if a docking solution is worth the price premium. Early indications are not good: http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2013/07/usb-3-0-continues-to-steal-thunderbolts-thunder/

This from one of the many companies that couldn't figure out how to build a MBA competitor...

 

[macs4nw]

You are quite right. The masses are happy with USB 3.0. Not all find it sufficient.
https://thunderbolttechnology.net/tech/how-it-works
The more you understand TB, the less you will tout USB 3.0 as "good enough".

Having superior technology unfortunately does not automatically guarantee widespread market adoption (there are a few examples of that); there are more factors that come into play, such as licensing fees, timing, or politics by potential backers. I'm not going to speculate here, where APPLE and/or INTEL miscalculated, but it is a disappointing fact of life nevertheless, for many people, who for obvious reasons, expect the best tech to prevail.

Myself, I am also a happy supporter of TB, as I believe it to be the best I/O technology out there at the moment, with the greatest potential for future universal connectivity (after a few years of legacy support, of course).

But I have found there to be many Thunderbolt 'naysayers' out there. Not meaning to sound pessimistic, but defending this awesome new technology here, is as useless as carrying water to the ocean. Granted, USB3 is indeed more than sufficient, at this time, for most ordinary tasks, but with an eye towards the future, I'd say, TB's advantages will become more pronounced, as it's true peer-to-peer design and it's multi-lane, bi-directional I/O protocol, coupled with future envisioned speeds, has the greatest potential.

Without wanting to sound 'elitist' here, those who don't need it, can happily use the admittedly, less expensive, but arguably, 'lowest common denominator' technology. Some of those who appreciate, and need it's awesome capabilities, are using it now, and don't need to be convinced anymore.
They are indeed more hoping for a somewhat wider adoption to lead to more availability and lower prices.