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Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q4 2012 Earnings Call

cxny said:
Oh and a 13 million song library for free/$5/$10 per month depending on your level of interest. I haven't touched my iTunes 20K songs since Spotify came to the US.

I do think AAPL needs to tend it's the ecosystem very carefully to keep people from drifting away and it may account for some of the loss in share price recently. If they don't have compelling content they will sell less devices in the long run.
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Well I mean the UI, not the functionality. It's just darker and the play controls are on the bottom.

I haven't paid for Spotify but it sure is tempting. I wish Apple would introduce a similar service, I'm not sure what's holding them back from doing so. I'd also like to see a better way to discover music. I currently use Turntable.fm and join a room with a genre I like, I've actually found more bands that way than just browsing the iTunes/Spotify catalog.

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srxtr said:
Look at AAPL go down down down
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Time to buy buy buy. Q4 is going to be high.

Federico Viticci just pointed out that Apple has surpassed 2011 entire fiscal results even without Q4 of 2012.
 
It is bad times for a company when it becomes a patent troll.

from arstechnica http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...er-big-patent-case-to-apple-this-time-at-itc/

"Interestingly, Apple was found to not be practicing the '697 patent at all. (A patent holder doesn't have to practice their patents in order to sue in district court—thus, patent trolls exist—but any company going to the ITC for relief has to, in theory at least, show that a "domestic industry" exists that uses their patents.)"

Right there, Apple is suing using a patent they don't even have a product/invention using it.
 
Easy

How to be a successful analyst

a) Borrow shares and short them.
b) Make a prediction impossible to reach.
c) When the results fall below your analysis, shares will fall.
d) Buy em back at profit.
e) Sell your rights about your new book: Why I left Goldman Sachs.
f) Sell out of the money put options on Apple Shares and with the money buy out of the money call option on Apple.
g) Make a profit.
h) Take a sabatic year. Write your new book: The financial crash for Dummies...
 
iMikeT said:
AAPL will "miss" the market expectation and the stock price will take a dump for the next few weeks. Days leading into the next dividend, the stock price will start to move up again. By the end of the year we'll see it back up to these levels and beyond. After they report for the holiday quarter in January, the stock price will see new all time highs, again.
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I take it these predictions have made you a multi-millionare.

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Akarin said:
Since when analysts are somewhat qualified to predict Apple results? So far, they have a certain track record of being wrong and then explaining why they were wrong.
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Since when are half of the people on these boards qualified to tell us exactly when to buy and sell?

Anyhow, it looks like the more "bullish" indie analysts are pulling in their horns somewhat, after getting burnt in some of the recent quarters. Anything less than $9.65 EPS and the markets are probably going to be unhappy.
 
I can see the share price being bolstered once the undoubted success of the iPad mini over the holiday period gets factored in.

But surely by the middle of next year Apple is heading for a period of decline?

They have had a fantastic run ever since the iPod came out but surely innovation will slow now as the driving force behind all this success (the web) matures?

What does everyone else think? are we going to be as amazed as we were when the iPod, iPhone, iPad came out again? itunes, the app store, genius bars etc, etc all of these are established now and have lost the thrill of the new.

It feels to me like the last days of the roman empire to be honest.
 
QCassidy352 said:
Holy cow, we are under 6 million iPods? How the mighty have fallen...
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LOL.

iMikeT said:
.....After they report for the holiday quarter in January, the stock price will see new all time highs, again.
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I believe you're right. AAPL's first quarter (cQ4) has been fantastic for quite a few years now, and given the recently released line-up, although it was a bit late in the quarter, assuming they can get enough product to market, in spite of some of the production problems they are experiencing, there's no reason to believe this coming quarter will be anything less than spectacular.
 
AAPL missed. $8.67 EPS. Here comes the dump.

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Wow, very bullish 1Q EPS of $11.75!

I guess that can be attributed to the high price of the new iPad mini.
 
IJ Reilly said:
Probably, depending somewhat on the revenue number and guidance.

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For this number to be meaningful, it has to be compared to guidance for Q1 2012, and I don't know that number myself.
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$15.43 was the expected Q1 earnings. So a big reduction.
 
Dmunjal said:
$15.43 was the expected Q1 earnings So a big reduction.
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Expected by whom? Apple has not provided any guidance for Q1 2013 until today. If those are preliminary guesses by the Street, then they are completely different projections. Apple's is always going to be much lower.

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iMikeT said:
Let me rephrase. AAPL "missed" the street's bullish estimates. They did beat their own guidance.
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The Street is always conservative. Apple is ultraconservative. Not beating the Street is bad. Not beating your own guidance is a disaster.
 
IJ Reilly said:
Expected by whom? Apple has not provided any guidance for Q1 2013 until today. If those are preliminary guesses by the Street, then they are completely different projections. Apple's is always going to be much lower.
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The $15.43 was an analyst estimate. But that analyst estimate translates into the current stock price. If the analysts have to bring down their estimates because of the guidance by Apple than the stock will come down. It's all relative.
 
Dmunjal said:
The $15.43 was an analyst estimate. But that analyst estimate translates into the current stock price. If the analysts have to bring down their estimates because of the guidance by Apple than the stock will come down. It's all relative.
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One analyst's estimate counts for nothing in the markets. Ten or twenty taken together may count for something, which is why we always cite the Street. In any case you cannot compare company guidance with an analyst, any analyst.
 
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