$9.65 pre-holiday quarter is far from conservative for the street considering AAPL guided at $7.65.
I agree however that AAPL is very conservative in their own estimates, except for this quarter. $11.75!
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Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q4 2012 Earnings Call
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$9.65 pre-holiday quarter is far from conservative for the street considering AAPL guided at $7.65.
I agree however that AAPL is very conservative in their own estimates, except for this quarter. $11.75!
Sorry, I should have been more specific. The $15.43 (shows $15.41 on Yahoo) was a consensus estimate of 43 analysts.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=AAPL+Analyst+Estimates
That's a 26% YoY increase in guidance. So if we add that much to Q1 2012 actual EPS we'd have number worth discussing.
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Okay, but it's still guidance vs. the Street.
It's always Apple's guidance vs. the Street. The fact is that the numbers have to be lowered. The stock is down below 600 right now. Of course a surprise to the upside on Q1 will drive the stock higher again.
Well, no it isn't really. The analysts do their own work, they don't look at guidance and add something. Again I'd like to see Q1 2012 EPS + 26% and see what that number looks like.
I don't need a stock ticker, thank you. (Seriously, I'd rather not have one.)
Wait, that 26% year over year estimate isn't worth discussing? The actual EPS for Q1 2012 was $13.87 with a guidance of $9.30. So far the Q1 2013 guidance is at $11.75, and that's AAPL being conservative.
By the way, the dump isn't as bad as I though it would have been. AAPL is back up to 609 as I type this and gaining.
Apple is Doomed
What a disappointing results. Analysts expected 15M ipads but apple sold only 14M ipads.
What a disappointing results. Analysts expected 15M ipads but apple sold only 14M ipads.
Whatever the analysts do, they seem to be more accurate (less than 1% off of their estimate) than Apple's own guidance. So, it seems that Apple is purposely lowballing while the analysts (in consensus) are doing their homework and coming to a more accurate number. Apple's guidance is taken into account as are channel and supplier checks.
Let's see how the conference call goes. If the analysts keep their number as is, the stock will be fine.
The increase in guidance is worth knowing, but I thought it would be more interesting to know how that increases projects against real earnings. So FWIW, a 26% increase over Q1 2012 actual EPS comes out to $17.47. Looked at that way, the current analyst estimates for next quarter of $15.41 certainly don't look high.
Thanks for doing that research, btw!
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Apple always guides very conservatively. Most companies do. Like I said before, if Apple ever missed their own guidance, the markets would rightly see it as a disaster.
Do try Spotify I use the mobile version plus two desktops and sure get my $10.00 worth in a month! It's great for discovery especially coupled with Shazam...
It's just dump and pump again. The big boys are going to put the money in now. The stock will be up over 650 in a couple of weeks.
They didn't "miss" anything really. No big surprises. Just the usual happy talk and sad talk - nothing real matters, what matters is the market consensus - that's the only reality.
5PM Eastern is the live conference call at:
http://investor.apple.com
I always listen to these.
The stock will be up and my call option purchase today will end up being good by December. I'm really thinking it's OK.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL121222C00685000
They didn't "miss" anything really. No big surprises. Just the usual happy talk and sad talk - nothing real matters, what matters is the market consensus - that's the only reality.
5PM Eastern is the live conference call at:
http://investor.apple.com
I always listen to these.
The stock will be up and my call option purchase today will end up being good by December. I'm really thinking it's OK.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL121222C00685000
Where's the pump? Apple has slid from $705 right after the iPhone 5 release to ~$600 today. If anything, I'd say the "miss" has already been priced in. Apple's stock is +0.21 as I write these lines. Haven't happened like this in a long time.
BTW, the indie has become more like a joke lately. They can't get the number, and stray even further than the analysts. Feels like they take the pro's number, +10% and call that a day.
BTW, the indie has become more like a joke lately. They can't get the number, and stray even further than the analysts. Feels like they take the pro's number, +10% and call that a day.