Well, this is of course completely subjective speculation, and no one really knows what will happen, but I personally see ChatGPT a bit like what the Netscape Navigator browser and the classroom PC were back in the day. They were the first real things that gave access to the internet. You don’t really see Netscape Navigator or classroom PCs anymore.
In my view, ChatGPT’s challenge is that as a technology it is somewhat standalone, not truly part of any ecosystem. Gemini and Apple’s potential future AI, on the other hand, will be integrated into ecosystems. At that point, ChatGPT risks being just a standalone chatbot.
Of course, it’s also important to remember the Microsoft connection, and for example Copilot uses ChatGPT as its engine under the hood. Copilot, in turn, is part of an ecosystem, the Microsoft ecosystem. So I wouldn’t be surprised if, at some point, Microsoft simply “swallows” ChatGPT and perhaps even OpenAI as a whole. At that point, if OpenAI’s potential bubble (if it is a bubble) were to burst, it could become a bargain acquisition.