All of the percentages are estimations, and typically nonlinear. So, making expectations, especially after only a year or so of usage data, is unreasonable/premature stress. Just use your gadgets/devices in a generally sensible manner and you’ll be fine.
I think it's not only charging habits that affect it, but also the way it's used: I use it constantly for running and cycling, which demands quite a lot of energy (GPS).
My wife's AW, bought at the same time but without as much actual use, is at 99% health.
Same boat, I charge mine overnight; I'd say I'm doing one workout per day which i expect to drain it faster but not effect the longevity as much as it has.
Just like with the iPhone battery discussions, users seem to mistakenly focus on duration being the key factor. Beyond “shelf life” and warranties, which is to cover the instance of a defective battery, longevity is not a common guarantee. Furthermore, batteries (like anything else) can come out of manufacturing with above, below, or as expected/design capacity/performance ("the [component/device type] lottery” as some people refer to it) — the underperforming typically safeguarded via warranty/guarantee.
Anyway…
For Apple devices, the best way to estimate (acceptable performance) battery lifespan is via charge cycles.
As a reminder:
Apple said:
Apple lithium-ion batteries work in charge cycles. You complete one charge cycle when you’ve used (discharged) an amount that equals 100% of your battery’s capacity — but not necessarily all from one charge. For instance, you might use 75% of your battery’s capacity one day, then recharge it fully overnight. If you use 25% the next day, you will have discharged a total of 100%, and the two days will add up to one charge cycle. It could take several days to complete a cycle. The capacity of any type of battery will diminish after a certain amount of recharging. With lithium-ion batteries, the capacity diminishes slightly with each complete charge cycle. Apple lithium-ion batteries are designed to hold at least 80% of their original capacity for a high number of charge cycles, which varies depending on the product.
Learn why Apple rechargeable lithium-based technology provides the best performance for your iPhone, iPad, iPod, and MacBook.
www.apple.com
Additionally:
Apple said:
Your battery is designed to retain up to 80% of its original capacity at 1000 complete charge cycles. The one-year warranty (for Apple Watch and Apple Watch Sport) and two-year warranty (for Apple Watch Edition) include service coverage for a defective battery. If it is out of warranty, Apple offers a
battery service. Prices and terms may vary.
Learn about battery service and recycling for Apple devices. All rechargeable batteries need to be serviced eventually.
www.apple.com
Unfortunately(?), there is no tool to view the amount of charge cycles completed on an AW. Therefore, even a basic estimate will require a few calculations. For example, if your watch has ~60% charge at the end of a day, it would take ~2.5 days to complete one charge cycle - 1 day divided by 0.4 (40% loss) equals 2.5 days. Now, we multiply 2.5 days per charge cycle by the average/estimate 1000 charge cycles before a battery is considered (by Apple) below satisfactory performance for a total of 2500 days (or ~6.85 years) until the battery should need replacing.
Of course, as the battery degrades and activities vary, the daily battery charge depletion will not maintain 40%. So, for a little more accuracy, you will need to recalculate over time.
Continuing the above example… If about a year later the end of day battery level averages ~50%:
1. 365 days in a year divided by 2.5 days per charge cycle equals 146 — but due to increased degradation we will round that to 150 charge cycles completed the first year.
2. 1000 expected charge cycles - 150 completed charge cycles equals 850 remaining charge cycles before the expected <=80% battery health
3. 1 day divided by 0.5 (now 50% loss per day, as mentioned earlier) equals 2 days per charge cycle.
4. 850 remaining charge cycles multiplied by 2 days per charge cycle equals 1700 days (or ~4.66 years)
5. 1 year lapse plus 4.66 years estimate equals 5.66 years until you’d expect the battery needs replacement.
— If you don’t remember from earlier, our original estimate was ~6.85 years. In other words, usage increased the degradation slope -1.2 years (at least based on this simple-ish example). With that said, the curve can go the other direction, maintaining a similar capacity for a period.
P.S. I am not a math whiz and do not feel like expending the time to come up with an algebraic equation.