Shipments of mmWave 5G iPhones Could Be Much Weaker Than Expected This Year

compwiz1202

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May 20, 2010
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5G support seems like a waste in 2020. They should have pushed back that feature to fall 2021 models when 5G is better deployed (and even then, it likely won’t be until 2022 that its widely available).
Some places have it, and I'd rather have a 5G phone, so I can tell for sure when it is finally supported in the places I go.
 

sub150

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Aug 7, 2018
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4G/LTE is pretty fast. 5G will need to not have any battery penalty to make it worth it for me. I would not sacrifice any battery life to save a few seconds here or there in loading times.

Also, the coverage seems terrible by definition.

5G to me seems a bit like curved TV's/3DTV. Pushing the edge of what consumers actually want. They will really need to solve the coverage issue.
 
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spinedoc77

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Jun 11, 2009
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Said every year by everyone.

bigger screens and 5G are both things that will trigger a “super cycle.” 2020 will be slow for obvious reasons (including economic collapse and probably slightly delayed launch) but sales will be huge next year.
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what unproven hardware? The 5g chipset will not be first gen (samsung and the rest beta’d that with their customers this year), and everything else is only ”new” in the sense that every year there are new things.
Is 5g really a sales driver, at least in the US which is Apple's largest market? I really don't understand the allure at all. I suppose it can help out in urban areas, although I've never had any issues with my phone in the past few years in Manhattan, or at a concert to name a few examples. I can see 5g being very nice in those countries with very cheap and/or truly unlimited data and I can see a case being made for having 5g as your home broadband connection.

The Achilles heel to 5g is the cost of data, all 5g will do is speed up how fast you suck up your data. It's certainly not going to make things like watching videos any better as 4g is plenty for even 4k, although IMO 4k is a huge waste on a smartphone screen (I believe there are only a few 4k phones around anyway such as the xperia 1), I don't think 4k is even worthwhile on a 15" laptop.

I definitely agree that Apple will sell a crap load of iphones as they do every year, I don't know if it will be a super cycle as the 13 doesn't seem to have any earth shattering upgrades, worthwhile upgrades yes but I'm not sure they are upgrades that will get the 2-3 year cycle consumers to upgrade. Heck I'm a super die hard upgrade very year iphone user and even I'm doubting I will upgrade this year.
 
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Reason077

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5G to me seems a bit like curved TV's/3DTV. Pushing the edge of what consumers actually want. They will really need to solve the coverage issue.
5G coverage for me (UK, 3.6Ghz band) is actually much better than expected. Having tried 2 different networks (Three and Vodafone), Three's coverage map shows no 5G at my location, and Vodafone's shows the weakest band of signal. But in reality I actually get 5/5 5G signal strength and excellent, reliable download speeds on both, indoors. It probably helps that I'm on the 5th floor, but even on the street outside at ground level it's still 5/5.

This is with a Huawei mobile MiFi 5G router (E6878).

Vodafone seems to now have excellent 5G coverage throughout East London, pretty much wherever I go. Not quite so much in Central London yet, though, but it falls back seamlessly to 4G of course.
 

cmaier

macrumors P6
Jul 25, 2007
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Is 5g really a sales driver, at least in the US which is Apple's largest market? I really don't understand the allure at all. I suppose it can help out in urban areas, although I've never had any issues with my phone in the past few years in Manhattan, or at a concert to name a few examples. I can see 5g being very nice in those countries with very cheap and/or truly unlimited data and I can see a case being made for having 5g as your home broadband connection.

The Achilles heel to 5g is the cost of data, all 5g will do is speed up how fast you suck up your data. It's certainly not going to make things like watching videos any better as 4g is plenty for even 4k, although IMO 4k is a huge waste on a smartphone screen (I believe there are only a few 4k phones around anyway such as the xperia 1), I don't think 4k is even worthwhile on a 15" laptop.

I definitely agree that Apple will sell a crap load of iphones as they do every year, I don't know if it will be a super cycle as the 13 doesn't seem to have any earth shattering upgrades, worthwhile upgrades yes but I'm not sure they are upgrades that will get the 2-3 year cycle consumers to upgrade. Heck I'm a super die hard upgrade very year iphone user and even I'm doubting I will upgrade this year.
5G will drive sales internationally, and will eventually drive sales in the US - iphone supporting it will cause carriers to accelerate adoption, and eventually people who have been holding off on upgrades will see this as a good reason to finally do so.

Tethering will be big for corporate-paid accounts, there are a lot of people who have unlimited data, etc.
 

spinedoc77

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Jun 11, 2009
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5G will drive sales internationally, and will eventually drive sales in the US - iphone supporting it will cause carriers to accelerate adoption, and eventually people who have been holding off on upgrades will see this as a good reason to finally do so.

Tethering will be big for corporate-paid accounts, there are a lot of people who have unlimited data, etc.
Maybe, but IMO it seems like 5g is just along for the ride where smartphones will still continue to sell at their usual pace. I still have no idea what 5g is good for, specifically in the US where we don't have truly unlimited data. What is possible is that through marketing your typical sheep consumer (myself included) may feel that 5g is an advantage for them and buy into it, this certainly happens every upgrade cycle with various improvements. But once again I still have no idea what tangible benefits 5g will bring to me.

Tethering for big corporate accounts: Once again what's the advantage for them? Are they downloading huge files all day long? Are they watching 8k on their phones? I'm also not aware of any "unlimited" data plans in the US that don't have a limit in the fine print, whether it's a data limit and/or a speed limit. I'm not saying that doesn't exist and that's why I'm asking, I just haven't heard of any.
 
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xpxp2002

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May 3, 2016
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427
ITT: People with iPhone 11/11 Pros saying that Apple should wait a year to release a new phone because they don't need to upgrade.

As someone who has an iPhone X, I'm quite ready for an upgrade this fall. I can't wait to finally have a phone that support LTE band 14, which will add a lot of low-band capacity and coverage for me. I'm also eager to get any Face ID improvements, as the iPhone X's Face ID is still pretty slow and unreliable. I'd really like to get a phone that patches the checkra1n hardware bug, so I can stop worrying about that. Along with the other rumored improvements: flat edges, smaller 5.4" model, and general camera enhancements since 2017; I'll be online at midnight PST to order my new iPhone, no question.
 
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compwiz1202

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May 20, 2010
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5G coverage for me (UK, 3.6Ghz band) is actually much better than expected. Having tried 2 different networks (Three and Vodafone), Three's coverage map shows no 5G at my location, and Vodafone's shows the weakest band of signal. But in reality I actually get 5/5 5G signal strength and excellent, reliable download speeds on both, indoors. It probably helps that I'm on the 5th floor, but even on the street outside at ground level it's still 5/5.

This is with a Huawei mobile MiFi 5G router (E6878).

Vodafone seems to now have excellent 5G coverage throughout East London, pretty much wherever I go. Not quite so much in Central London yet, though, but it falls back seamlessly to 4G of course.
This is exactly why I would rather just have a 5G device to gauge real life performance, than rely on useless coverage maps.
 

Reason077

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This is exactly why I would rather just have a 5G device to gauge real life performance, than rely on useless coverage maps.
At least they seem to be being very conservative with their coverage maps, rather than the other way around!

I guess they want to avoid the problem of customers returning 5G devices because they find out they're in a dead spot, so they only show coverage where they're absolutely certain of it. Better to over-deliver than under-deliver.
 

Cosmosent

macrumors 65816
Apr 20, 2016
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The main applications that mmWave was intended to address won't be coming back for awhile, possible years.

BIG Live Events (sports, music, etc.) ... that's where mmWave offered its biggest benefit.
 
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IIGS User

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Feb 24, 2019
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I suspect I'll upgrade when the new phone comes out.

The 5G is a selling point for me, but the big difference is in the design. The rounded phones are hard for me to keep hold of for one. Second, I just prefer the squared off design.

A new phone every few years is how I "treat" myself, so this is enough for me to make a change from my Xr.

Plus I can sell the Xr and still get a decent amount of money for it.
 

iGeek2019

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Jul 26, 2019
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United Kingdom
Wouldn't they just need to call it "5G capable" to get around it?
From memory they advertised iPad 3 as WiFi & 4G but only seemed to mention this on their Tech Specs page that it was limited two/three carriers over in the US/Canada?

But so long as they use a disclaimer along the lines of being capable then they *should* be clear.
 
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ksec

macrumors 65816
Dec 23, 2015
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I think iphone fatigue is real. It’s not apples fault. This phone any other year would be a huge hit. IMO, it’s just the time we’re living in. There’s so many world events right now. Pandemic, recession, race riots, stressful election just months away, nobody is thinking iphone right now.

I think owning an iPhone 11 year model along with iOS 14 with the widgets etc is probably the go-to iPhone setup for 2020
This year is a new iPhone design. I am willing to bet it will sell like hotcakes, with or without 5G support.
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Sounds like a messy 5G launch product Lineup. May be Apple will launch iPhone 12 with both 4G and 5G Variants? Or will they force 5G variants in those specific market? Given they will likely priced differently.

iPhone 12 Pro Max
$1199 - 5G, mmWave, Qualcomm Modem.
$1099 - 4G, Intel Modem... ( Please no )

iPhone 12 Pro
$1199 - 5G,
$1099 - 4G,

iPhone 12 6.1"
$799 - 5G
$699 - 4G

iPhone 12 5.4"
$699 - 5G
$599 - 4G

Discontinue iPhone 11

iPhone XR $499
iPhone SE $399
 
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bn-7bc

macrumors regular
May 30, 2008
203
61
Arendal, Norway
I don't see this iPhone being a hit. I think people are getting iPhone fatigue. The enthusiast who knows what 120Hz is or what LiDar is (I don't) will want it, but the average guy who doesn't know what these features are won't care.

We're in the age of corona, riots, and Trump. Long lines that wrap the corner block and the untempered excitement people once had for the latest and greatest iPhone seems so yesterday...
ok I had to check wikipedia "laser imaging, detection, and ranging" so RADAR (yes cap are correct is it's an abbreviation) but with a LASER instead of radio waves, not shure why they included imaging put I suppose LDAR was already used or LIDAR just rolls of the tunge better. As to it's use better and easier measurements (so things like messuring apps (ai tape measure, room measure apps) get better results. As to the publics interest we will just have to see
 

sub150

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Aug 7, 2018
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5G coverage for me (UK, 3.6Ghz band) is actually much better than expected. Having tried 2 different networks (Three and Vodafone), Three's coverage map shows no 5G at my location, and Vodafone's shows the weakest band of signal. But in reality I actually get 5/5 5G signal strength and excellent, reliable download speeds on both, indoors. It probably helps that I'm on the 5th floor, but even on the street outside at ground level it's still 5/5.

This is with a Huawei mobile MiFi 5G router (E6878).

Vodafone seems to now have excellent 5G coverage throughout East London, pretty much wherever I go. Not quite so much in Central London yet, though, but it falls back seamlessly to 4G of course.
I'm not anticipating America catching up to East London anytime soon on infrastructure. You guys with your fancy dense housing, trains, buses that work, bike lanes, and now working 5G networks.
 

bn-7bc

macrumors regular
May 30, 2008
203
61
Arendal, Norway
5G has worked out pretty great for me (UK). No need for fibre broadband when I get consistent 200 Mbps+ download speeds and < 20ms pings for £30/month. I'm even streaming live games via Google Stadia with no lag whatsoever (Mac gaming solved!). 4G is lucky to get over 50 Mbps, typically less, and the ping times are significantly worse.



Oh, definitely. I can easily blow through 100 GB in a day with 5G!
What, if you don't mind me asking, is the quota on that GBP30/month plan and is that the data you get with your mobile plan, or is that "mobile broadband" which is , at lest in Norway, priced quite differently at least on 4G and 5G is beeing rolled out slowly as we speak (corrent plan for both nation wide MNOs is ens of 2022)
 

KrispE00

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Nov 18, 2016
185
238
The Achilles heel to 5g is the cost of data, all 5g will do is speed up how fast you suck up your data. It's certainly not going to make things like watching videos any better as 4g is plenty for even 4k
I see this response all the time about faster networks. If you’re consuming the same amount of content (music, videos, web browsing, games), the data used is going to be the same as before. It doesn’t matter how fast the connection is. Unless the audio/video quality is increased (which is possible) or you plan on consuming more content because the speed is faster 🤔, you won’t use any more data than before.
 

NIKKG

macrumors 6502
Feb 23, 2012
337
986
When economy headed for depression, people don't spend money like they used to, especially on expensive gadgets that the majority don't really need.
 

bn-7bc

macrumors regular
May 30, 2008
203
61
Arendal, Norway
When economy headed for depression, people don't spend money like they used to, especially on expensive gadgets that the majority don't really need.
Well yo might be reigh, or you may allso turn things on their head an say, tha a lot of people will say thet the upgrade they plan now wil be i (at lest phone wise) for the next 3-5 year so spending a bit extra might be justified, we will have to see
 

Hieveryone

macrumors 603
Apr 11, 2014
5,178
2,063
USA
Said every year by everyone.

bigger screens and 5G are both things that will trigger a “super cycle.” 2020 will be slow for obvious reasons (including economic collapse and probably slightly delayed launch) but sales will be huge next year.
- - Post merged: - -



what unproven hardware? The 5g chipset will not be first gen (samsung and the rest beta’d that with their customers this year), and everything else is only ”new” in the sense that every year there are new things.
“Said every year by everyone” as if this is like any other year
 

MacBH928

macrumors 601
May 17, 2008
4,193
1,564
A phone that will more expensive that implements a technology that is still not accessible to 99% of people on earth in the middle of a virus pandemic and degrading economy? Who would've though sales will get lower.
I mean, they'll still sell them by the millions, but quite a few people are going the same way I did - having owned pretty much every iPhone since the original launch day back in 2007, I recently traded for an S20+, and wouldn't go back.
I am very interested to know why
 

fairuz

macrumors 68020
Aug 27, 2017
2,486
2,588
Silicon Valley
4G/LTE is pretty fast. 5G will need to not have any battery penalty to make it worth it for me. I would not sacrifice any battery life to save a few seconds here or there in loading times.

Also, the coverage seems terrible by definition.

5G to me seems a bit like curved TV's/3DTV. Pushing the edge of what consumers actually want. They will really need to solve the coverage issue.
It's a good way to replace home broadband, though. That stuff is hard to deploy, and no matter how capable the customer is in dealing with internet problems, there's always some problem outside their control.
 

spinedoc77

macrumors G3
Jun 11, 2009
9,600
3,552
I see this response all the time about faster networks. If you’re consuming the same amount of content (music, videos, web browsing, games), the data used is going to be the same as before. It doesn’t matter how fast the connection is. Unless the audio/video quality is increased (which is possible) or you plan on consuming more content because the speed is faster 🤔, you won’t use any more data than before.
Yeah obviously, not sure what you are trying to say here, the point is that if there is some sort of application which does require more bandwidth you are going to suck up data much faster. For example, let's say 8k screens and streaming were a reality that only 5g could accomplish. Also you could not have expressed my point better: if you are consuming the same amount of content which doesn't require increased bandwidth then what is the point of 5g?
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It's a good way to replace home broadband, though. That stuff is hard to deploy, and no matter how capable the customer is in dealing with internet problems, there's always some problem outside their control.
This is one of the few applications I see being valid, although carriers (at least in the US) would have to change their data plans to include much more data or they will never compete with traditional ISP's. It might be a better idea in rural areas or areas where broadband doesn't reach, although that would require building out their networks into those rural areas.
 

sub150

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Aug 7, 2018
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325
It's a good way to replace home broadband, though. That stuff is hard to deploy, and no matter how capable the customer is in dealing with internet problems, there's always some problem outside their control.
I'd be curious to see how much load it can handle. If 10% of the neighborhood is using the nearest router, what happens if that jumps to 80%? I know the specs say it should be very good. Is it better or worse than cable/fiber under load.
 
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