Shipments of mmWave 5G iPhones Could Be Much Weaker Than Expected This Year

[Reason077]

What, if you don't mind me asking, is the quota on that GBP30/month plan and is that the data you get with your mobile plan, or is that "mobile broadband" which is , at lest in Norway, priced quite differently at least on 4G and 5G is beeing rolled out slowly as we speak (corrent plan for both nation wide MNOs is ens of 2022)

No quota on this plan. It's unlimited data, and not speed capped. Just an ordinary phone SIM that I put into my own 5G router.

I don't think there is any real distinction between "mobile broadband" and "mobile data" SIM cards in the UK these days. It used to be that some cheaper plans had tethering restrictions etc, but you don't really see that anymore. But if you get a "mobile broadband" plan (not just a SIM) then it typically comes with a mobile router included.

 

[dampfnudel]

Well, at least Apple has the pandemic to blame if sales are weak this time around.

 

[Reason077]

I'm not anticipating America catching up to East London anytime soon on infrastructure. You guys with your fancy dense housing, trains, buses that work, bike lanes, and now working 5G networks.

Well, sure, but then there's the air pollution, traffic noise, expensive housing, etc. And to be honest the bike lanes could be improved. It's a nice place to live but everywhere has it's pros and cons!

 

[KrispE00]

Yeah obviously, not sure what you are trying to say here, the point is that if there is some sort of application which does require more bandwidth you are going to suck up data much faster. For example, let's say 8k screens and streaming were a reality that only 5g could accomplish. Also you could not have expressed my point better: if you are consuming the same amount of content which doesn't require increased bandwidth then what is the point of 5g?

1. The argument of “sucking up data faster” assumes that your data cap will not increase over time as the bandwidth increases. Do you have the same data allotment as you did in 2010?
2. I’ve had AT&T unlimited data for 12 years. The slow-down cap went from 5GB to 22GB and now I have 100GB of full speed data. Data allotments have increased with the speed increases.

 

[fairuz]

I'd be curious to see how much load it can handle. If 10% of the neighborhood is using the nearest router, what happens if that jumps to 80%? I know the specs say it should be very good. Is it better or worse than cable/fiber under load.

It's probably the same. I don't think the bottleneck is the wireless signal, and the other legs of the trip are probably similar to what ISPs already have.

Also turns out a lot of the carriers' limitations are in the control plane (phones joining/leaving cell towers, etc) rather than data plane (the packets that actually go to/from the Internet), and control plane is less of an issue with modems that are just always on and don't move around. Not an expert, only going by what I was told back when I was working on LTE middleboxes in 2015.

 

[spinedoc77]

1. The argument of “sucking up data faster” assumes that your data cap will not increase over time as the bandwidth increases. Do you have the same data allotment as you did in 2010?
2. I’ve had AT&T unlimited data for 12 years. The slow-down cap went from 5GB to 22GB and now I have 100GB of full speed data. Data allotments have increased with the speed increases.

1. The argument against "sucking up data faster" assumes that your data cap will increase over time, do you have a crystal ball? But then again I continue to ask what advantage 5g has today? I can only assume your crystal ball will tell you about next year's 8k movie streaming on phones but that doesn't do me any good today. The switch from 3g to 4g was dramatic, there was a very tangible benefit right away. Please note I have genuinely been asking this question as I honestly don't know what the benefit is when taking today's data limitations and bandwidth needs into consideration.

2. Once again see comment on crystal ball, 5g phones have already been out for quite some time this year and I haven't seen data packages move at all. I don't doubt that they will improve, but if both predictions of increased bandwidth needing functions and increased data limits come true then we will be in the same exact spot as we are today but with a shiny new 5g label. But I'll ask again, what are we going to need that extra bandwidth for? Game streaming? That's going to be a hell of a lot more data than I'll bet any of the carriers are willing to give up for a reasonable monthly fee. I could see home broadband but then it would have to be truly unlimited like most ISP's have.

But you know what that 22GB on ATT sounds really appealing. 5g is what 10gbps/second which means 22GB will take about 30 seconds or so to be used up. Data is already a joke with 4g, give my kids a few hours on YouTube and my "unlimited" data gets sucked up real fast.

 

[Reason077]

But then again I continue to ask what advantage 5g has today? ... The switch from 3g to 4g was dramatic, there was a very tangible benefit right away. Please note I have genuinely been asking this question as I honestly don't know what the benefit is when taking today's data limitations and bandwidth needs into consideration.

I would say that 4G -> 5G is about the same degree of upgrade that 3G -> 4G was. In both cases it's somewhere around a 4X-8X speed upgrade. But more importantly, it lets carriers use their RF spectrum more efficiently. You get more speed, but they also get more capacity. They can support more customers at higher speeds without having to add additional infill towers/sites/etc. This is what allows them to offer cheaper data plans (or, more likely, more data at the same price).

5g is what 10gbps/second which means 22GB will take about 30 seconds or so to be used up. Data is already a joke with 4g, give my kids a few hours on YouTube and my "unlimited" data gets sucked up real fast.

10 Gbps?! Not quite. I get about 400 Mbps peak on 3.6Ghz 5G. More typically 200-280 Mbps. mmWave will probably be faster, though. But even at these speeds it's easy to use 10's of GB per hour when streaming, etc. Google Stadia works great on 5G
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It's probably the same. I don't think the bottleneck is the wireless signal, and the other legs of the trip are probably similar to what ISPs already have.

Also turns out a lot of the carriers' limitations are in the control plane (phones joining/leaving cell towers, etc) rather than data plane (the packets that actually go to/from the Internet), and control plane is less of an issue with modems that are just always on and don't move around. Not an expert, only going by what I was told back when I was working on LTE middleboxes in 2015.

It really depends on the network and the location. Some networks and sites are constrained by simply not having enough RF spectrum (in the UK, Three's 4G network is notorious for this - they don't own enough spectrum to adequately serve all the cheap unlimited data packages they sell), while others may have backhaul limitations (such as at remote or mini sites which have radio backhaul rather than fibre connections).

Control plane is an interesting aspect, as the current NSA (non-standalone) 5G/NR networks work by piggybacking on the LTE control plane. So many 4G/LTE networks are getting an upgrade as part of the 5G rollout, hopefully eliminating any bottlenecks that may exist there.

 

[spinedoc77]

I would say that 4G -> 5G is about the same degree of upgrade that 3G -> 4G was. In both cases it's somewhere around a 4X-8X speed upgrade. But more importantly, it lets carriers use their RF spectrum more efficiently. You get more speed, but they also get more capacity. They can support more customers at higher speeds without having to add additional infill towers/sites/etc. This is what allows them to offer cheaper data plans (or, more likely, more data at the same price).



10 Gbps?! Not quite. I get about 400 Mbps peak on 3.6Ghz 5G. More typically 200-280 Mbps. mmWave will probably be faster, though. But even at these speeds it's easy to use 10's of GB per hour when streaming, etc. Google Stadia works great on 5G
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It really depends on the network and the location. Some networks and sites are constrained by simply not having enough RF spectrum (in the UK, Three's 4G network is notorious for this - they don't own enough spectrum to adequately serve all the cheap unlimited data packages they sell), while others may have backhaul limitations (such as at remote or mini sites which have radio backhaul rather than fibre connections).

Control plane is an interesting aspect, as the current NSA (non-standalone) 5G/NR networks work by piggybacking on the LTE control plane. So many 4G/LTE networks are getting an upgrade as part of the 5G rollout, hopefully eliminating any bottlenecks that may exist there.

Thanks for that info, I was looking for specific info like that. I can see the increased capacity for 5g as being very useful, I just personally haven't ever had any issues with 4g in say a very crowded Manhattan (think Times Square), or at a concert venue. I can remember 3g having major issues with these situations, but I haven't encountered capacity issues with 4g. But still I can understand that is a positive upgrade and technology should move forward. The download speeds is where I am having difficulty seeing any benefit from, even trying to predict the future I'm having a hard time seeing where this would be a benefit other than possibly game streaming or a home/business broadband solution. 10Gbps is what 5g is capable of, whether it hits that or not of course is a different story.

 

[bn-7bc]

No quota on this plan. It's unlimited data, and not speed capped. Just an ordinary phone SIM that I put into my own 5G router.

I don't think there is any real distinction between "mobile broadband" and "mobile data" SIM cards in the UK these days. It used to be that some cheaper plans had tethering restrictions etc, but you don't really see that anymore. But if you get a "mobile broadband" plan (not just a SIM) then it typically comes with a mobile router included.

You might be right the reason why i belived there to be a difference is that I confronted my mno anout the rather karge difference in prices for data on the “ mobile brodband” product and higher data teers (still way less than the lowest tier “mobile broadbsnd”). As far as i got answers is seams thst data for both products travkws on the same ifrastructure ( both physical and virtual) and that no additional gos/ prioratisation is appled berween the two peoduckr groops. So kf i was beeing tolt thr trouth we have the same amount of bits ( thus loading both ran and bachsul networks the same and costing exactly the same for any possible peering costs) beeing priced very differently. Theiet teason for this was our mobile broadbs coustumer often hsve mobile broadbabd as their only choice so we use price to force rhe other group ( data bundeked with your cell phone plan to use kess data,